比特币与黄金：哪个是更好的避险资产？

即使增加配置，黄金也能持续降低投资组合波动性，同时提高回报。通过模拟不同黄金配置（2.5% 至 10%）的投资组合表现，很明显，这种金属可以在不增加重大风险的情况下提高回报。

As the global economy continues to face turbulent times, investors are once again debating the role of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and a store of value. Some cryptocurrency enthusiasts have labeled Bitcoin as “digital gold,” due to its limited supply and decentralized nature. However, a closer examination of the data, particularly during recent market selloffs, challenges this claim.

随着全球经济继续面临动荡时期，投资者再次争论比特币作为通胀对冲和价值储存的作用。由于其供应有限和去中心化的性质，一些加密货币爱好者将比特币称为“数字黄金”。然而，对数据的仔细研究，特别是在最近的市场抛售期间，对这一说法提出了挑战。

Gold, a time-tested asset known for its stability, has served as a safe haven during market downturns for centuries. Its unique characteristics, such as low volatility and a negative correlation with broader markets, make it an ideal asset for a diversified portfolio. In contrast, Bitcoin has displayed characteristics more akin to high-risk technology stocks, rendering it an unsuitable substitute for gold during times of market stress.

黄金是一种经过时间考验的资产，以其稳定性而闻名，几个世纪以来一直是市场低迷时期的避风港。其独特的特征，例如低波动性和与更广泛市场的负相关性，使其成为多元化投资组合的理想资产。相比之下，比特币表现出更类似于高风险科技股的特征，使其在市场压力时期不适合替代黄金。

The primary distinction between gold and Bitcoin lies in their volatility. On a five-year rolling basis, gold has proven to be significantly less volatile than Bitcoin, a trend that further highlights its role as a safe haven asset. Gold's stable value is supported by central bank holdings, long-term investment demand, and its status as a global store of wealth.

黄金和比特币之间的主要区别在于它们的波动性。在五年滚动基础上，事实证明黄金的波动性明显低于比特币，这一趋势进一步凸显了其作为避险资产的作用。黄金的稳定价值受到央行持有、长期投资需求及其作为全球财富储存手段的地位的支撑。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is at the extreme end of the volatility spectrum, with its price fluctuations closely tied to blockchain adoption and innovation trends, mirroring the volatility of tech stocks. This was evident during the recent market correction in early August 2024, where Bitcoin experienced sharp losses, while gold remained relatively stable, reinforcing its value as a risk mitigator during crises.

另一方面，比特币处于波动范围的极端，其价格波动与区块链采用和创新趋势密切相关，反映了科技股的波动性。这在 2024 年 8 月上旬的市场调整中表现得很明显，比特币经历了大幅下跌，而黄金则保持相对稳定，增强了其在危机期间作为风险缓解工具的价值。

The comparison of year-to-date returns also reveals a stark contrast. While gold's stable performance has provided investors with consistent gains, Bitcoin's wild swings have made it less reliable for investors seeking protection in a turbulent market.

年初至今回报率的比较也显示出鲜明的对比。虽然黄金的稳定表现为投资者提供了持续的收益，但比特币的剧烈波动却使其对于在动荡的市场中寻求保护的投资者来说不太可靠。

Furthermore, gold and Bitcoin exhibit striking differences in their correlation with broader markets. Gold has historically displayed a negative correlation during down markets and a positive correlation during up markets, a characteristic that complements a diversified portfolio. In contrast, Bitcoin behaves more like risk assets, amplifying market stress rather than mitigating it. This was evident during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, where gold outperformed while Bitcoin faltered, aligning with other high-risk equities.

此外，黄金和比特币与更广泛市场的相关性表现出显着差异。从历史上看，黄金在市场下跌时表现出负相关性，在市场上涨时表现出正相关性，这一特征补充了多元化的投资组合。相比之下，比特币的行为更像风险资产，放大而不是减轻市场压力。这在 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间就很明显，当时黄金表现优异，而比特币则表现不佳，与其他高风险股票一致。

Gold's global acceptance as a store of value, unrestricted by geographic or regulatory boundaries, provides further stability. It is universally recognized by central banks, investors, and the general public, making it a reliable asset during times of economic turmoil. Bitcoin, while growing in prominence, has not demonstrated the same universal acceptance or reliability, particularly during significant market downturns.

黄金作为一种不受地理或监管边界限制的价值储存手段被全球接受，提供了进一步的稳定性。它受到央行、投资者和公众的普遍认可，使其成为经济动荡时期的可靠资产。比特币虽然日益突出，但并未表现出同样的普遍接受度或可靠性，特别是在市场严重低迷时期。

The critical takeaway from the events of early August 2024 is that Bitcoin has yet to display the safe haven characteristics attributed to gold. During times of substantial market drawdowns, Bitcoin has tracked risk assets like tech stocks, offering no meaningful protection for investors seeking stability. This reinforces the notion that Bitcoin's most common use case is as an indicator of blockchain adoption rather than a dependable hedge against inflation or market turbulence.

2024 年 8 月上旬事件的关键结论是，比特币尚未表现出黄金的避险特征。在市场大幅下跌期间，比特币追踪了科技股等风险资产，为寻求稳定的投资者提供了任何有意义的保护。这强化了这样一种观念，即比特币最常见的用例是作为区块链采用的指标，而不是针对通货膨胀或市场动荡的可靠对冲工具。