比特币期货分析 - 关键交易水平和今天的市场前景

在进行分析时，比特币期货的交易价格为89,430，比昨天的收盘处下降了0.03％，表明市场处于暂停模式，这非常好待美国就业报告或其他催化剂推动动力。

Bitcoin futures were trading at 89,430 at the time of this analysis, down a marginal 0.03% from yesterday’s close. This placed the market in pause mode—likely awaiting the U.S. jobs report or another catalyst to drive momentum.

在进行分析时，比特币期货的交易价格为89,430，比昨天的收盘价降低了0.03％。这使市场处于暂停模式，这可能是在等待美国就业报告或其他催化剂以推动动力的催化剂。

This week’s price action remained within the broader pullback structure that started from the all-time high (110,150). Bitcoin futures had since corrected 28.5%, with a recent low of 78,675. The market now sat mid-range relative to last week’s price action and was near a key pivot level from January 13, 2025.

本周的价格动作始终是从历史最高高（110,150）开始的更广泛的回调结构。此后，比特币期货已纠正28.5％，最近的低点为78,675。现在，该市场与上周的价格行动相对于上周的中间距离，并且从2025年1月13日起接近关键枢轴水平。

But where did we go from here?

但是我们从这里去哪里？

For that, we turned to volume profile analysis and VWAP-based key price levels, where institutional traders, algorithms, and professional market participants were likely to engage in greater trading activity.

为此，我们转向了数量概况分析和基于VWAP的关键价格水平，在这里，机构交易者，算法和专业市场参与者可能会从事更大的交易活动。

What Is Volume Profile & Why Does It Matter?

什么是音量配置文件，为什么重要？

Volume profile was a price-based volume indicator that showed where the most trading activity had occurred at specific price levels. Unlike traditional moving averages that tracked price over time, volume profile displayed the volume at each price point, highlighting liquidity zones.

数量概况是一个基于价格的数量指标，该指标表明在特定价格水平上最多的交易活动发生在哪里。与传统的移动平均值随着时间的推移跟踪价格，音量配置文件在每个价格点显示体积，突出了流动性区域。

• High volume areas (POC – Point of Control): These areas, denoted by the densest part of the volume profile, indicated where the most trading activity took place. They acted as strong liquidity zones, which often provided support or resistance for price.

•高容量区域（POC - 控制点）：这些区域，由数量最密集的部分表示，指示交易活动最多的地方。他们充当强大的流动性区，通常为价格提供支持或阻力。

• Value area (VAH/VAL – Value Area High & Low): This was the price range where 70% of the total session volume was concentrated. It defined the market’s accepted price levels for the session.

•值面积（VAH/VAL - 值高和低）：这是集中会话量的70％的价格范围。它定义了市场公认的会议价格水平。

• Low volume areas: Conversely, low volume areas signaled rapid price movement with minimal liquidity. This often created price gaps that price later tended to revisit as institutions completed their planned activity.

•低容量面积：相反，低容量区域表明价格快速流动，流动性最小。这通常会造成价格差距，而随着机构完成计划的活动，价格后来倾向于重新审视。

What Is VWAP & Why Should Traders Use It?

什么是VWAP，为什么交易者应该使用它？

VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) was a key benchmark used by institutions to measure the average price at which a security traded over a session, with more weight given to prices with higher volume.

VWAP（体积加权平均价格）是机构用来衡量安全性交易的平均价格的关键基准，其权重更大，价格更高。

• Above VWAP: When price traded above VWAP, it signaled that buyers had more strength, indicating a bullish bias.

•VWAP上方：当价格在VWAP上方交易时，它表明买家具有更大的力量，表明看涨偏见。

• Below VWAP: Conversely, price trading below VWAP implied more selling pressure, suggesting a bearish bias.

•VWAP下方：相反，VWAP低于VWAP的价格交易暗示了更多的销售压力，这表明是看跌的偏见。

VWAP reset daily, meaning it adapted dynamically throughout the session to reflect changing market conditions and liquidity. This made it a valuable tool for both institutional traders and professional scalpers who engaged in more rapid, shorter-term trading.

VWAP每天重置，这意味着它在整个会议期间动态适应，以反映不断变化的市场状况和流动性。对于从事更快，更短的交易的机构贸易商和专业的黄牛来说，这都是有价值的工具。

Key Bitcoin Futures Price Levels Today

今天的关键比特币期货价格水平

Resistance Levels (Above Current Price – 89,430)

电阻水平（高于当前价格 - 89,430）

Traders should keep an eye on how price reacted around 91,000. If buyers managed to sustain price above this level, it would suggest significant strength, potentially leading to a test of 93,175 and maybe even 95,000+.

交易者应密切关注价格在91,000左右的反应。如果买家设法维持高于此水平的价格，它将表明强大的强度，可能导致93,175次测试甚至95,000多。

Support Levels on Bitcoin Futures (Below Current Price – 89,430)

比特币期货的支持水平（低于当前价格 - 89,430）

If price broke below 86,880, it signaled a shift in momentum, suggesting that sellers were gaining more control and traders could see a continuation lower.

如果价格突破86,880，它表明势头转移，这表明卖方获得了更多的控制权，而交易者可能会降低延续。

Critical Lower Support Ranges If Selling Pressure Escalates

关键的较低支持范围如果销售压力升级

A break below 78,600 would indicate a deeper corrective phase, shifting the market structure to bearish unless we saw extremely strong support emerge at lower institutional liquidity zones.

低于78,600的休息时间将表明更深层次的纠正阶段，除非我们看到在较低的机构流动性地区出现了极强的支持，否则将市场结构转移到看跌。

Why Smart Traders Take Partial Profits Instead of All-or-Nothing Bets

智能交易者为什么要获得部分利润，而不是全或全无的赌注

One of the biggest mistakes traders often made was waiting for the “big move” to materialize completely before taking any profits, leading to smaller gains or missed opportunities.

交易者经常犯的最大错误之一是等待“大动作”在获得任何利润之前完全实现，从而导致较小的收益或错过的机会。

• Markets Are Unpredictable – Even the strongest trends could experience unexpected pullbacks or shifts in momentum before a larger continuation. By locking in some profits at key levels, traders could mitigate risk from potential reversals while still having the potential to benefit from a larger move.

•市场是不可预测的 - 即使是最强大的趋势也可能会在更大的延续之前经历意外的回调或动量转变。通过将一些利润锁定在关键水平上，交易者可以减轻潜在逆转的风险，同时仍然有可能从更大的举动中受益。

• Institutions & Algos Take Profits – Large institutional players and professional algorithms typically didn’t maintain full positions all the way to the highest price target. They usually scaled out of positions gradually at key price levels where they anticipated more liquidity and institutional participation.

•机构和算法获得利润 - 大型机构参与者和专业算法通常并未保持全部职位，直至最高目标。他们通常以关键价格水平逐渐排除职位，他们预计会有更多的流动性和机构参与。

• Possitioning For The Next Move – Taking partial profits at a key level allowed traders to reposition their positions more effectively. For instance, if traders sold at a resistance zone but saw signs of sellers getting exhausted, they could adjust their strategy and prepare for a potential bounce.

•采取下一步行动的可能性 - 在关键水平上进行部分利润，使交易者可以更有效地重新定位其头寸。例如，如果交易者在电阻区出售但看到卖家筋疲力尽的迹象，他们可以调整其策略并为潜在的反弹做准备。

How This Trading Map Helps You Read The Market

该交易图如何帮助您阅读市场

This analysis wasn't about trying to guess the next move of Bitcoin price but rather about understanding where major players were more likely to intervene and how their activity could influence traders' decisions.

这种分析不是要猜测比特币价格的下一步行动，而是要了解主要参与者更有可能干预的地方以及他们的活动如何影响交易者的决策。

• If buyers managed to defend VWAP levels and key value areas, it signaled that institutions were still bullish and traders could

•如果买家设法捍卫VWAP水平和关键价值领域，则表明机构仍然是看涨的，交易者可以