比特币第四次减半：具有供应、使用和价格影响的里程碑

Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 认为比特币第四次减半具有“象征意义”，标志着一个重要的里程碑，94% 的比特币已被开采，未来通胀率低于 1%。然而，包括瑞穗证券 (Mizuho Securities) 的丹·多列夫 (Dan Dolev) 和 BitMEX 创始人在内的一些市场专家预计，由于宣传力度加大和潜在的地缘政治风险，将会出现“抛售新闻”事件。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: Symbolic Milestone with Unique Supply and Usage Implications

比特币第四次减半：具有独特供应和使用影响的象征性里程碑

The highly anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin (BTC) has occurred, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. This halving cycle stands out from its predecessors, with unique characteristics that have implications for supply, usage, and price.

备受期待的比特币（BTC）第四次减半已经发生，标志着加密货币历史上的一个重要里程碑。这个减半周期与之前的减半周期不同，具有对供应、使用和价格产生影响的独特特征。

Symbolic Significance

象征意义

According to Kraken's Head of Strategy, Thomas Perfumo, the fourth halving is particularly symbolic. It coincides with a period of heightened scrutiny of conventional currencies, inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic environment. This event underscores Bitcoin's potential as an alternative currency, offering inflation protection and limited supply.

Kraken 战略主管 Thomas Perfumo 表示，第四次减半尤其具有象征意义。恰逢传统货币、通货膨胀、利率和整体经济环境受到严格审查的时期。这一事件强调了比特币作为替代货币的潜力，提供通胀保护和有限的供应。

Supply Impact

供应影响

With the halving, 94% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist has now been mined. The circulating supply will now experience less than 1% inflation going forward, further reducing the issuance rate of new coins. This supply constraint contributes to Bitcoin's inherent value proposition as a scarce and immutable asset.

随着减半，比特币总供应量的 94% 现已被开采。未来流通供应量的通货膨胀率将低于 1%，这将进一步降低新币的发行率。这种供应限制有助于比特币作为稀缺且不可变资产的内在价值主张。

Short-Term Price Prospects

短期价格前景

Market analysts anticipate potential sell pressure in the short term following the halving. Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, suggests that the event has been extensively priced in, leading to a "sell-the-news" scenario.

市场分析师预计减半后短期内可能出现抛售压力。瑞穗证券 (Mizuho Securities) 董事总经理丹·多列夫 (Dan Dolev) 表示，这一事件已被广泛定价，导致出现“抛售新闻”的情况。

The heightened publicity surrounding this halving cycle compared to previous ones could amplify this sell-off. BitMEX's founder has echoed similar sentiments, citing the US tax season and geopolitical risks as potential catalysts for a liquidity crunch and downward pressure on BTC's price.

与之前的减半周期相比，围绕这一减半周期的宣传力度加大，可能会加剧这种抛售。 BitMEX 的创始人也表达了类似的观点，称美国纳税季和地缘政治风险是流动性紧缩和比特币价格下行压力的潜在催化剂。

Potential Bearish Sentiment

潜在的看跌情绪

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, could further contribute to bearish sentiment in the short term. Escalation in the region could trigger risk aversion among investors, leading to a flight from riskier assets such as Bitcoin.

中东的地缘政治紧张局势，特别是以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势，可能会在短期内进一步加剧看跌情绪。该地区局势升级可能会引发投资者的避险情绪，导致投资者逃离比特币等风险较高的资产。

Volatility and Support Levels

波动性和支撑位

Despite these short-term concerns, BTC's price remains highly volatile. It is likely to continue fluctuating within its established support and resistance levels, even after the halving. The magnitude and timing of any price movements remain uncertain, underscoring the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

尽管存在这些短期担忧，比特币的价格仍然高度波动。即使在减半之后，它也可能继续在既定的支撑位和阻力位内波动。任何价格变动的幅度和时间仍然不确定，凸显了加密货币市场固有的波动性。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's fourth halving marks a pivotal moment in its evolution, with unique supply and usage implications. While the short-term price prospects remain uncertain due to sell pressure and geopolitical risks, the long-term value proposition of Bitcoin as a scarce and inflation-resistant asset remains intact. Market participants should closely monitor price movements and geopolitical developments to navigate the post-halving environment effectively.

比特币的第四次减半标志着其演变的关键时刻，具有独特的供应和使用影响。尽管由于抛售压力和地缘政治风险，短期价格前景仍然不确定，但比特币作为稀缺和抗通胀资产的长期价值主张仍然完好无损。市场参与者应密切关注价格走势和地缘政治发展，以有效应对减半后的环境。