分析师：比特币逃离减半后的“危险区”，走向重新积累

尽管美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最终决定，比特币价格最近经历了回调，目前徘徊在 69,000 美元左右

Bitcoin (BTC) price recently experienced a retracement and currently hovers around $69,000 despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) eventual approval of several spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

尽管美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最终批准了几只现货以太坊 (ETH) 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，但比特币 (BTC) 价格最近经历了回调，目前徘徊在 69,000 美元左右。

Now that Bitcoin has officially escaped the danger zone, will the preeminent crypto resume its upward movement soon, or is a deeper correction still likely? Let’s take a look at the BTC price analysis to find out.

既然比特币已经正式逃离了危险区域，那么这个卓越的加密货币是否会很快恢复上涨势头，或者是否仍有可能进行更深层次的调整？让我们看一下BTC价格分析来找出答案。

Bitcoin price recently experienced a retracement and currently hovers around $69,000.

比特币价格最近经历了回调，目前徘徊在 69,000 美元左右。

Bitcoin’s Sideways Trading To Continue For Several More Weeks: Analyst

分析师：比特币横盘交易将持续数周

On May 24, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital posted an update on BTC, noting that the classic Bitcoin “danger zone” when the asset corrects after the quadrennial halving event is now behind us.

5 月 24 日，加密货币交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 发布了关于 BTC 的最新动态，指出四年一次的减半事件后资产修正时经典的比特币“危险区”现已成为过去。

The post-halving danger zone happens in prior market cycles when the asset corrects after a block subsidy halving, as per Rekt Capital. After the danger zone is over, Bitcoin historically enters a reaccumulation phase when it moves sideways within a tight range. This suggests that further pullbacks during the period of sideways chop that often follows the halving could still be on the cards.

根据 Rekt Capital 的说法，减半后的危险区域发生在之前的市场周期中，即在集体补贴减半后资产进行调整时。从历史上看，危险区域结束后，比特币会在窄幅区间内横盘整理，进入重新积累阶段。这表明，在减半之后的横盘震荡期间，仍有可能进一步回调。

“Since the Bitcoin post-halving ‘danger zone’ ended, Bitcoin broke out to $71,500. However, ~$71,500 is where the range high resistance of the macro re-accumulation range is and this is where Bitcoin rejected from,” Rekt Capital wrote. “The consolidation continues and history suggests it will continue for several more weeks between $60,000 and $70,000.”

自比特币减半后“危险区”结束以来，比特币突破至 71,500 美元。然而，约 71,500 美元是宏观再积累区间的高阻力位，也是比特币被拒绝的地方，”Rekt Capital 写道。 “盘整仍在继续，历史表明，盘整还将在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间持续数周。”

Rekt Capital further observed that based on historical behavior, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound below $70,000 until September.

Rekt Capital 进一步观察到，根据历史行为，比特币可能会在 9 月份之前保持在 70,000 美元以下的区间波动。

“Historically, Bitcoin has always rejected from the range high on the first attempt at a breakout after the halving. Moreover, history suggests this re-accumulation should last much longer. Bitcoin tends to break out from these re-accumulation ranges only up to 160 days after the halving. That would translate to a Bitcoin breakout from the re-accumulation range only in September 2024.”

“从历史上看，比特币在减半后第一次尝试突破时总是被拒绝在区间高点。此外，历史表明这种重新积累应该持续更长时间。比特币往往会在减半后 160 天内突破这些重新积累区间。这意味着比特币要到 2024 年 9 月才会突破重新积累区间。”

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

比特币价格一览

In this cycle, Bitcoin dipped by over 20% from its $73,737 all-time high in mid-March to around $56,780 on May 1, marking the potential bottom of the post-halving danger zone period.

在这个周期中，比特币从3月中旬的历史高点73,737美元下跌至5月1日的56,780美元左右，跌幅超过20%，标志着减半后危险区时期的潜在底部。

On May 21, Bitcoin’s price briefly topped the psychologically important $70K mark; however, it swiftly dropped to around $67,000. BTC has now recovered and is trading back to $69,176 at press time, bolstering the return to the reaccumulation zone analysis.

5 月 21 日，比特币价格短暂突破 7 万美元重要心理关口；然而，它很快就跌至 67,000 美元左右。 BTC 目前已经反弹，截至发稿时交易价格已回升至 69,176 美元，支撑了重返吸筹区域的分析。

As the flagship crypto appears stuck in sideways price action, industry pundits remain uber-bullish. For instance, veteran crypto market commentator Tom Lee said his base case for Bitcoin by the end of the year is $150,000.

由于旗舰加密货币似乎陷入了横盘价格走势，行业专家仍然非常看好。例如，资深加密货币市场评论员 Tom Lee 表示，他的比特币今年年底的基本预测是 15 万美元。