计量经济学分析师表示，比特币并不注定会出现回报递减

一位名为 Ecoinometrics 的加密货币分析师拒绝了对比特币失去增长潜力的解释。他将比特币的成长过程与英伟达的成长过程进行了比较，以强调比特币未来潜在的轨迹。

A cryptocurrency analyst has countered the perception that Bitcoin’s growth potential has diminished. He compares BTC’s growth trajectory to that of NVIDIA, highlighting the tech company’s sustained ascent following its IPO, fueled by its significance in Artificial Intelligence. This analogy is crucial for understanding Bitcoin’s potential growth path and can influence future Bitcoin price predictions.

一位加密货币分析师反驳了比特币增长潜力已经减弱的观点。他将 BTC 的增长轨迹与 NVIDIA 的增长轨迹进行了比较，强调了这家科技公司在人工智能领域的重要性推动下，在 IPO 后持续上升。这种类比对于理解比特币的潜在增长路径至关重要，并且可以影响未来的比特币价格预测。

The analyst underscores the factor of relevance to support his argument regarding Bitcoin’s growth. In the context of struggling central banks and vast government debt, he highlights the increasing relevance of Bitcoin as a hedge against government debt.

这位分析师强调了支持他关于比特币增长论点的相关因素。在央行陷入困境和政府债务庞大的背景下，他强调了比特币作为对冲政府债务的日益重要的意义。

However, the analyst acknowledges the argument that BTC may not be able to generate massive growth anymore. In the past, Bitcoin was known for delivering astronomical returns, such as 500% or 1000% per year. Like many, this crypto analyst seems to doubt BTC’s potential for such growth.

然而，分析师承认比特币可能无法再产生大规模增长的论点。过去，比特币以提供天文数字的回报而闻名，例如每年 500% 或 1000%。和许多人一样，这位加密货币分析师似乎对 BTC 的增长潜力表示怀疑。

Bitcoin Historical Return & Price Change Analysis

比特币历史收益及价格变化分析

Examining Bitcoin’s historical returns over the last five years (2020-2023 Q4), the highest quarterly return was Q4 2020 with +169.7%. The second-highest return was Q1 2021 with +103.2%. Coming in third was Q1 2023 with a return of +72.3%.

审视比特币过去五年（2020年-2023年第四季度）的历史回报率，季度回报率最高的是2020年第四季度，为+169.7%。第二高回报率是 2021 年第一季度，为 +103.2%。排名第三的是 2023 年第一季度，回报率为 +72.3%。

Bitcoin is not doomed to experience diminishing returns.

比特币并不注定会经历收益递减。

Yes the days of the 500% or even 1000% compound annual growth rates are behind us.

是的，500%甚至1000%复合年增长率的日子已经过去了。

But assuming that as asset matures they are going to continue growing slower and slower is wrong.

但假设随着资产的成熟，它们的增长速度将越来越慢，这是错误的。

Just look at NVIDIA.

看看英伟达就知道了。

They are… pic.twitter.com/b5EBsJR6Au

他们是…… pic.twitter.com/b5EBsJR6Au

Moreover, Q1 of this year saw a return of +68.7%, while Q2 and Q3 displayed returns of -12% and -6.12%, respectively.

此外，今年第一季度的回报率为+68.7%，而第二季度和第三季度的回报率分别为-12%和-6.12%。

In terms of price change, 2020 recorded the highest with a change of +304.1% over the last five years. The second-highest annual price change was 2023 with +155.4%. The worst was 2022 with a change of -64.3%.

就价格变化而言，2020年创近五年来最高，变化+304.1%。第二高的年度价格变化是 2023 年，增幅为 155.4%。最差的是 2022 年，变化为-64.3%。

Bitcoin is not doomed to experience diminishing returns.

比特币并不注定会经历收益递减。

Yes the days of the 500% or even 1000% compound annual growth rates are behind us.

是的，500%甚至1000%复合年增长率的日子已经过去了。

But assuming that as asset matures they are going to continue growing slower and slower is wrong.

但假设随着资产的成熟，它们的增长速度将越来越慢，这是错误的。

Just look at NVIDIA.

看看英伟达就知道了。

They are… pic.twitter.com/b5EBsJR6Au

他们是…… pic.twitter.com/b5EBsJR6Au

The highest price change ever reported was 2013's +5,435%. The second-highest was 2011's +1,435%.

有史以来报告的最高价格变化是 2013 年的 +5,435%。第二高的是 2011 年的 +1,435%。

A massive price change of +1,369 was reported in 2017. Since then, no price change of such a massive nature has been recorded.

据报道，2017 年价格发生了 +1,369 的大幅变化。此后，再没有记录过如此大规模的价格变化。

In conclusion, it seems reasonable to assume that Bitcoin’s potential for a massive price surge in the short term is diminishing. However, it would be incorrect to conclude that this cryptocurrency has no more room for growth. Bitcoin remains a viable investment option as long as its relevance remains intact.

总之，我们可以合理地假设比特币短期内价格大幅上涨的潜力正在减弱。然而，认为这种加密货币没有更多增长空间的结论是不正确的。只要比特币的相关性保持不变，它仍然是一种可行的投资选择。