随着 ETH/BTC 接近底部，比特币的主导地位增长放缓

比特币的主导地位衡量了比特币在整个加密货币市场中的份额，在过去几个月中稳步上升，反映出投资者对比特币相对于山寨币的偏好。

Bitcoin’s price surged toward $66,000 in Oct. 2024 after breaking through key resistance levels earlier in the month.

比特币价格在本月早些时候突破关键阻力位后，于 2024 年 10 月飙升至 66,000 美元。

Despite this price surge, the growth in Bitcoin’s dominance, currently over 58%, appears to have slowed down, raising questions about the strength of this rally and whether altcoins could regain ground in the coming weeks.

尽管价格飙升，但比特币目前超过 58% 的主导地位的增长似乎已经放缓，引发了人们对这次反弹的强度以及山寨币是否可以在未来几周内重新崛起的疑问。

Bitcoin Dominance Growth Slows Down

比特币主导地位增长放缓

Bitcoin dominance, which measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market, has steadily increased over the past several months, reflecting investors’ preference for Bitcoin over altcoins.

比特币的主导地位衡量了比特币在整个加密货币市场中的份额，在过去几个月中稳步上升，反映出投资者对比特币相对于山寨币的偏好。

However, the BTC dominance dropped around Sept. 18, after which the metric started a downtrend.

然而，BTC 的主导地位在 9 月 18 日左右下降，此后该指标开始下跌。

The drop might indicate that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s market share is losing steam as traders diversify into other assets or hold back due to a lack of new market entrants. Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, but the growth has slowed down.

这一下跌可能表明，比特币市场份额最近的飙升正在失去动力，因为交易者将资产多元化到其他资产，或者由于缺乏新的市场进入者而有所保留。比特币的主导地位继续上升，但增长速度已经放缓。

The slowdown can be attributed to several factors, including profit-taking among long-term BTC holders, as reflected in on-chain data, and the broader market uncertainty surrounding regulatory developments and macroeconomic concerns.

经济放缓可归因于多种因素，包括链上数据所反映的长期比特币持有者的获利回吐，以及围绕监管发展和宏观经济担忧的更广泛的市场不确定性。

Additionally, some traders might be looking to hedge their positions by moving capital into altcoins, particularly Ethereum, as they anticipate potential short-term corrections in Bitcoin’s price. This shift creates resistance for BTC dominance to push higher, though it remains well above its key support levels.

此外，一些交易者可能希望通过将资金转移到山寨币（尤其是以太坊）来对冲头寸，因为他们预计比特币价格可能会出现短期调整。这种转变为比特币的主导地位推高带来了阻力，尽管它仍远高于关键支撑位。

Will ETH/BTC Finally Bottom Out?

ETH/BTC最终会触底吗？

The ETH BTC chart clearly shows Ethereum’s continued underperformance against Bitcoin, with the ratio slipping to around 0.039. This represents a sharp decline from previous highs, signaling that Bitcoin is outpacing Ethereum in market momentum.

ETH BTC 图表清楚地显示以太坊相对于比特币的表现持续不佳，比率下滑至 0.039 左右。这代表着比特币较之前高点大幅下跌，表明比特币的市场势头正在超过以太坊。

Ethereum’s inability to hold ground against Bitcoin further strengthens BTC’s dominance in the short term, as capital flows out of ETH and other altcoins back into Bitcoin. The decline in the ETH BTC pair became more pronounced in July earlier this year.

随着资本从 ETH 和其他山寨币回流到比特币，以太坊无法在比特币面前站稳脚跟，这进一步强化了 BTC 的主导地位。今年早些时候，ETH BTC 货币对的跌幅在 7 月份变得更加明显。

However, the trend could reverse if Ethereum finds support at current levels and regains investor confidence, particularly with potential institutional interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

然而，如果以太坊在当前水平找到支撑并重拾投资者信心，特别是机构对去中心化金融（DeFi）应用程序的潜在兴趣，这一趋势可能会逆转。

Should ETH/BTC start to rebound, it would likely cap Bitcoin dominance at current levels or even push it lower as Ethereum’s market share begins to recover. For now, the ETH BTC downtrend supports Bitcoin’s market dominance, with little sign of immediate reversal.

如果 ETH/BTC 开始反弹，可能会限制比特币在当前水平的主导地位，甚至随着以太坊市场份额开始恢复而将其压低。目前，ETH BTC 的下跌趋势支撑了比特币的市场主导地位，几乎没有立即逆转的迹象。

Bullish On-Chain Cues

看涨的链上线索

Several on-chain metrics signal bullish cues for Bitcoin dominance in the coming weeks. One key chart is the Net Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges, which shows that more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering, indicating strong accumulation by long-term holders.

一些链上指标预示着未来几周比特币将占据主导地位。一张关键图表是交易所的净转账量，该图表显示离开交易所的 BTC 多于进入交易所的 BTC，表明长期持有者的大量积累。

The reduction in exchange supply typically reduces selling pressure, supporting Bitcoin’s price and dominance.

交易所供应量的减少通常会减轻抛售压力，支撑比特币的价格和主导地位。

Another bullish indicator comes from the Whale Deposits to Exchanges chart, where the volume of large transfers to exchanges has remained low. This suggests that whales holding significant amounts of BTC are not planning to sell soon.

另一个看涨指标来自鲸鱼存款到交易所图表，其中向交易所的大额转账量仍然很低。这表明持有大量比特币的鲸鱼并不打算很快出售。

Additionally, the size of whale transfer volumes has declined in Oct. 2024. The lack of whale-driven selling pressure could sustain the current BTC dominance and drive it higher if broader market sentiment is bullish.

此外，鲸鱼转移量的规模在 2024 年 10 月有所下降。鲸鱼驱动的抛售压力的缺乏可能会维持当前 BTC 的主导地位，并在更广泛的市场情绪看涨的情况下推动其走高。

Finally, large holders have steadily increased their positions, signaling continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

最后，大持有者稳步增加头寸，表明他们对比特币的长期前景仍然充满信心。

Addresses with balances between 100 and 1,000 BTC have risen steadily. Moreover, the number of addresses with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC (blue) showed a spike recently. The whale accumulation trend further limits the available supply of BTC for trading, likely providing continued support for Bitcoin’s dominance, especially if new investors enter the market.

余额在 100 至 1000 BTC 之间的地址稳步上升。此外，拥有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC（蓝色）的地址数量近期出现激增。鲸鱼的积累趋势进一步限制了比特币的可用交易供应，这可能为比特币的主导地位提供持续的支持，特别是如果新投资者进入市场的话。

These on-chain signals suggest that while Bitcoin dominance has slowed, the long-term outlook remains bullish, particularly as large holders accumulate and reduce sell pressure. If market sentiment improves, these bullish cues could increase BTC dominance in the coming months.

这些链上信号表明，虽然比特币的主导地位已经放缓，但长期前景仍然看涨，特别是在大持有者积累并减少抛售压力的情况下。如果市场情绪改善，这些看涨信号可能会在未来几个月提高比特币的主导地位。