现货市场比特币需求会飙升吗？

按即期汇率计算，比特币坚挺，但交易员对 6 月 11 日意外暴跌后的上升趋势表示怀疑。目前，比特币稳定，趋势在 67,000 美元上方，尽管 6 月 12 日有所上涨，但仍在下跌。

Bitcoin price shows little movement at spot levels on June 12, despite gains. Currently, the coin is trading above $67,000, down from earlier highs.

6 月 12 日，尽管有所上涨，但比特币价格在现货水平上几乎没有变动。目前，该代币的交易价格高于 67,000 美元，低于之前的高点。

However, even at this level, there are concerns. The coin, despite all the bullish sentiment across the board, is still trading below $72,000. This reaction line is emerging as a key liquidation zone. If broken, BTC could unleash a wave of short liquidations, accelerating the lift-off to $74,000 and beyond.

然而，即使在这个水平上，也存在一些担忧。尽管整体看涨情绪，但该代币的交易价格仍低于 72,000 美元。这条反应线正在成为一个关键的清算区。如果跌破，BTC 可能会引发一波空头清算浪潮，加速上涨至 74,000 美元及以上。

Will Bitcoin Demand Soar In Spot Markets?

现货市场比特币需求会飙升吗？

According to X, one on-chain analyst, Bitcoin is having trouble breaking $72,000 at spot levels due to hedge funds stacking shorts on futures.

一位链上分析师 X 表示，由于对冲基金在期货上堆积空头，比特币在现货水平上难以突破 72,000 美元。

While this development has been known for some time, hedge funds have increased their BTC shorts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) by more than $1 billion in the past week alone.

尽管这一事态发展早已为人所知，但对冲基金仅在过去一周就在芝加哥商业交易所 (CME) 增加了超过 10 亿美元的 BTC 空头头寸。

As a result, the analyst argues that two things must occur to reverse this effect and support prices. While the BTC shorting on CME is not necessarily a bearish signal – hedge funds are hedging by playing a sophisticated arbitrage strategy – coin holders should be looking at fundamentals.

因此，分析师认为必须发生两件事才能扭转这种影响并支撑价格。虽然 CME 的 BTC 做空不一定是看跌信号——对冲基金正在通过复杂的套利策略进行对冲——但代币持有者应该关注基本面。

To help the coin break $72,000 and pierce $74,000, the analyst said users need to be buying at least 2X the amount of BTC futures shorted in the spot market.

这位分析师表示，为了帮助比特币突破 72,000 美元并突破 74,000 美元，用户需要购买至少 2 倍于现货市场做空的 BTC 期货数量。

BTC Price Needs To Fall For Short Sellers To Exit

BTC 价格需要下跌才能让卖空者退出

If there is no incentive to lift spot prices higher, then Bitcoin price must fall. Falling prices will encourage short sellers, in this case, the hedge funds, to exit their positions lest they continue paying funding rates. In a bearish market, and when futures prices begin to fall, short sellers must pay longs for the index not to deviate.

如果没有动力提高现货价格，那么比特币价格必定下跌。价格下跌将鼓励卖空者（在本例中为对冲基金）退出头寸，以免继续支付融资利率。在看跌市场中，当期货价格开始下跌时，卖空者必须支付多头费用，以确保指数不偏离。

Whether there will be a spike in demand in the spot market remains to be seen. However, it is clear that institutional interest in Bitcoin is present, and that hedge funds, as evidenced by their arbitrage trade using CME, are seeking to profit regardless of price movements.

现货市场的需求是否会激增还有待观察。然而，很明显，机构对比特币存在兴趣，而对冲基金利用 CME 进行套利交易就证明了这一点，无论价格走势如何，都在寻求利润。

The analyst also included another chart to support the bullish outlook. The trader used the “Growth Rate” metric to compare changes in Bitcoin’s market and realized cap.

该分析师还提供了另一张图表来支持看涨前景。该交易员使用“增长率”指标来比较比特币市场和已实现上限的变化。

Currently, the metric is at around 0.001, far below 0.002, indicating that the market is likely overheating. This could be a sign that the bulls are preparing to return.

目前，该指标约为 0.001，远低于 0.002，表明市场可能过热。这可能是多头准备回归的迹象。