比特币“死亡十字”临近，但这一次准确吗？

与 7 月类似，8 月交易以巨大的看跌基调开始。 8月第一周，所有加密资产都面临极度看跌热潮，其中明星代币

August trade started on a huge bearish note, continuing the trend from July. In the first week of August, all crypto assets faced extreme bearish heat, with the star token, Bitcoin, plunging below $60,000 for a while.

8 月份的交易以巨大的看跌基调开始，延续了 7 月份的趋势。 8月第一周，所有加密资产都面临极度熊市，明星代币比特币一度跌破6万美元。

This occurred as Bitcoin approached a “death cross,” a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (SMA) falls below the 200-day SMA. This pattern is often interpreted as a bearish signal and can create panic among investors.

这种情况发生在比特币接近“死亡交叉”时，这是一种 50 日移动平均线 (SMA) 跌破 200 日移动平均线的技术模式。这种模式通常被解释为看跌信号，可能会引起投资者的恐慌。

However, it’s crucial to understand that such indicators are typically lagging and do not accurately predict future price movements. Watching the next price action would be fascinating as the mid-quarter trade appears to have flipped towards the south.

然而，重要的是要了解这些指标通常是滞后的，并且不能准确预测未来的价格走势。由于季度中期交易似乎已转向南方，观察下一次价格走势将会很有趣。

Here’s a quick glance at the key points covered in the analysis:

以下是分析中涵盖的要点的快速浏览：

Bitcoin Death Cross Is Approaching

比特币死亡十字即将来临

50D SMA: $62325.04

50D SMA：62325.04 美元

200D SMA: $61604.43

200D SMA：61604.43 美元

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently approaching a death cross, a technical pattern that occurs when the short-term moving average (50-day SMA) exceeds the long-term moving average (200-day SMA).

比特币是全球市值最大的加密货币，目前正接近死亡交叉，这是一种当短期移动平均线（50 日移动平均线）超过长期移动平均线（200 日移动平均线）时出现的技术模式。

As per data from TradingView, Bitcoin’s 50-day SMA is currently at $62,332 and falling, suggesting it may soon cross below the 200-day SMA, which stands at $61,605. This crossover is generally seen as a bearish signal, indicating potential further price declines.

根据 TradingView 的数据，比特币的 50 日移动平均线目前位于 62,332 美元，并且正在下跌，这表明它可能很快就会跌破 200 日移动平均线（61,605 美元）。这种交叉通常被视为看跌信号，表明价格可能进一步下跌。

How Accurate Is Death Cross?

死亡交叉有多准确？

The death cross is often viewed with fear by traders, but it is rarely accurate. The last significant death cross for Bitcoin occurred on September 12, 2023.

交易者常常对死亡交叉感到恐惧，但它很少是准确的。比特币最后一次重大死亡交叉发生在 2023 年 9 月 12 日。

This pattern initially led to a price drop to $24,900, but Bitcoin surged to new highs above $70,000 by March 2024. This shows that the pattern can predict downturns but not guarantee them.

这种模式最初导致价格下跌至 24,900 美元，但到 2024 年 3 月，比特币飙升至 70,000 美元以上的新高。这表明该模式可以预测经济衰退，但不能保证经济衰退。

However, due to market fear, the current Bitcoin price has dropped over 20% in a week to around $55,000, increasing traders’ fear of liquidity. Such reactions often stem from overestimating the indicator’s significance and can lead to hasty investment decisions.

然而，由于市场恐慌情绪，当前比特币价格一周内下跌超过20%至55,000美元左右，增加了交易者对流动性的担忧。此类反应通常源于高估了指标的重要性，并可能导致仓促的投资决策。

Moreover, the crypto crash continues, with the BTC price dropping 7.31% to $54K, a 17% drop in 4 days, and ETH dropping 30% in 7 days. Furthermore, over $1.75B in long liquidations happened since July 29 and reached $438M, with the death cross looming as 50-day EMA dips.

此外，加密货币崩盘仍在继续，BTC价格下跌7.31%至5.4万美元，4天内下跌17%，ETH价格7天内下跌30%。此外，自 7 月 29 日以来，多头清算发生超过 $1.75B，达到 $438M，随着 50 天均线下跌，死亡交叉迫在眉睫。

Broader Influences on Bitcoin’s Price

对比特币价格的更广泛影响

In reality, Bitcoin’s near-term performance is more influenced by broader economic factors, such as U.S. economic data and fluctuations in the Japanese yen. The yen’s volatility and impact on carry trades can significantly affect Bitcoin and other risk assets.

事实上，比特币的近期表现更多地受到更广泛的经济因素的影响，例如美国经济数据和日元波动。日元的波动和对套利交易的影响可能会严重影响比特币和其他风险资产。

Conclusion

结论

While the death cross may cause concern, it should not be relied upon as the sole indicator for making investment decisions. Its historical track record is mixed, and broader economic factors are more critical in determining Bitcoin’s price direction. Investors should consider these factors and avoid overreacting to technical patterns alone.

虽然死亡交叉可能​​引起关注，但不应将其作为做出投资决策的唯一指标。其历史记录好坏参半，更广泛的经济因素对于决定比特币的价格走向更为关键。投资者应考虑这些因素，并避免仅对技术形态反应过度。

Also check Out : Top Meme Coins To Buy As The Worst Is Behind The Crypto Markets

另请查看：最值得购买的 Meme 代币，因为最糟糕的情况已经在加密货币市场背后