比特币和加密货币市场终于爆发——原因如下

谈到加密货币市场，过去七个月最好用一个词来概括：令人失望。

The crypto market has had a disappointing year, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) peaking at record highs of around $73,000 in March and then sliding into a sluggish downtrend.

加密货币市场经历了令人失望的一年，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在 3 月份创下了 73,000 美元左右的历史高点，然后陷入了缓慢的下降趋势。

But now it looks like cryptos may finally break out… this time, for real.

但现在看来，加密货币可能终于爆发了……这一次，是真的。

What Happened: Of course, as we’ve mentioned, the crypto market has been stuck in a sluggish downtrend, repeatedly failing to break above resistance.

发生了什么：当然，正如我们所提到的，加密货币市场一直陷入缓慢的下降趋势，屡屡未能突破阻力位。

But the glass-half-full outlook here? Despite this frustrating movement, cryptos have not crashed.

但这里的前景是乐观的吗？尽管发生了这一令人沮丧的运动，但加密货币并没有崩溃。

It also seems that October is shaping up to be the eighth consecutive month wherein Bitcoin hasn’t moved more than 20%. Indeed, for the past seven months, Bitcoin’s monthly move has been less than 20%. It has not gone up or down more than 20% in any month since February. If that trend continues in October, it’ll mark the eighth month in a row that BTC saw such minimal movement.

10 月份似乎也将成为比特币价格连续第八个月没有上涨超过 20%。事实上，在过去的 7 个月里，比特币的月度涨幅还不到 20%。自2月份以来，任何一个月的涨幅或下跌都没有超过20%。如果这种趋势在 10 月份继续下去，这将标志着 BTC 连续第八个月出现如此小的波动。

That is really unusual for Bitcoin.

这对于比特币来说确实很不寻常。

In fact, per our research, Bitcoin has only once before registered eight consecutive months with a monthly move less than 20%. That was in the late summer of 2015. From February to September 2015, BTC lounged around $250, consistently failing to break out or break down for eight straight months.

事实上，根据我们的研究，比特币之前只出现过一次连续八个月月度涨幅低于 20% 的情况。那是在 2015 年夏末。从 2015 年 2 月到 9 月，BTC 徘徊在 250 美元左右，连续八个月未能突破或崩溃。

Then, the breakout happened. Bitcoin soared nearly 40% higher in October 2015. By the end of the following year, it had more than tripled.

然后，突破发生了。 2015 年 10 月，比特币飙升近 40%。到次年年底，比特币价格增长了两倍多。

In other words, the last and only other time that Bitcoin was this flat for this long was right before a big BTC breakout. And cryptos went on to stage a huge rally over the next 12 months.

换句话说，上一次也是唯一一次比特币如此长时间持平是在比特币大幅突破之前。在接下来的 12 个月里，加密货币继续出现大幅上涨。

We are cautiously optimistic that history will repeat this time around.

我们对这一次历史将重演持谨慎乐观的态度。

And in fact, it looks like that breakout may have already arrived.

事实上，看起来突破可能已经到来。

Bitcoin is on a run right now, currently up about 25% off its early September lows. This is the largest intraday Bitcoin rally since cryptos topped out in early March.

比特币目前正在上涨，目前较 9 月初的低点上涨了约 25%。这是自 3 月初加密货币见顶以来比特币最大的盘中涨幅。

Moreover, in this rally, Bitcoin has retaken its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages – not once, but twice.

此外，在这次反弹中，比特币重新回到了 50 天、100 天和 200 天移动平均线——不是一次，而是两次。

That’s important.

这很重要。

During May, July, and August’s previous “failed” breakout attempts, Bitcoin retook major moving averages once and then lost them – each time.

在 5 月、7 月和 8 月之前的“失败”突破尝试中，比特币一次重新夺回了主要移动平均线，然后又失去了它们——每次都是如此。

In mid-May, it retook the 50- and 100-day moving averages, lost them in mid-June, and just kept falling.

5月中旬，它重新站上50日和100日移动平均线，6月中旬失去它们，然后继续下跌。

In July, Bitcoin retook the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages mid-month, lost them in early August, and just kept falling.

7 月，比特币在月中重新夺回 50 日、100 日和 200 日移动平均线，但在 8 月初失去这些移动平均线，然后继续下跌。

And in late August, Bitcoin retook all three moving averages, lost them days later, and – you guessed it – just kept falling.

8 月下旬，比特币重新夺回了所有三个移动平均线，几天后又失去了它们，并且 - 你猜对了 - 继续下跌。

But here in the fall of 2024… Bitcoin retook all three major moving averages in late September… lost all three in early October… and is now retaking all three once again.

但在 2024 年秋天……比特币在 9 月底重新夺回了所有三个主要移动平均线……在 10 月初失去了所有三个移动平均线……现在又再次夺回了所有三个移动平均线。

That’s the first time that’s happened since March.

这是自三月份以来第一次出现这种情况。

In other words, certain technical signals are emerging to suggest that this Bitcoin rally – unlike every other this year – is the ‘real deal.’

换句话说，某些技术信号的出现表明，比特币的这次反弹——与今年的每次反弹不同——是“真正的交易”。

That, of course, means it may be time to buy cryptos – and risk assets in general.

当然，这意味着现在可能是购买加密货币以及一般风险资产的时候了。

The Final Word

最后一句话

Crypto is a risk-on asset; perhaps even the riskiest of all. If it is ready to soar, then it is highly likely all risk assets are ready for takeoff as well. That includes stocks.

加密货币是一种风险资产；也许甚至是最危险的。如果它准备好飙升，那么所有风险资产很可能也准备好起飞。其中包括股票。

Indeed, we think both the stock and crypto markets are potentially primed for a huge holiday rally in November and December.

事实上，我们认为股票和加密货币市场都可能为 11 月和 12 月的假期大幅上涨做好准备。

Check out a few stocks we like for that upcoming rally.

看看我们在即将到来的反弹中看好的几只股票。