比特币，崩溃和美联储降低：纽约市的观点

分析比特币在降低税率的情况下的潜在崩溃。乐观或“出售新闻”活动会占上风吗？查看关键趋势和见解。

Bitcoin, Crash, and Fed Rate Cuts: A NYC Perspective on What's Next

比特币，崩溃和美联储降低：纽约市的观点

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, fueled by ETF inflows and the hope of Fed rate cuts. But whispers of a crash are getting louder. What's a New Yorker to think?

比特币一直在狂野的旅程，这是由于ETF流入和降低美联储降低速度的希望。但是坠机的耳语越来越大。纽约人有什么想法？

The Rising Wedge: A Signal of a Bitcoin Crash?

上升的楔形：比特币崩溃的信号？

Technical charts are flashing warnings. A rising wedge pattern suggests a potential bearish breakdown, possibly sending Bitcoin down to $74,560. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is also falling, signaling a loss of momentum. Is this the calm before the storm?

技术图表正在闪烁警告。上升的楔形模式表明潜在的看跌崩溃，可能会将比特币降至74,560美元。平均方向指数（ADX）也下降，表明动量损失。这是暴风雨前平静吗？

Fed Rate Cuts: A Double-Edged Sword for Bitcoin

美联储降低：比特币的双刃剑

Everyone's expecting the Fed to cut interest rates, which should boost risky assets like Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen massive inflows, and Q4 is historically bullish for crypto. But here's the catch: what if the rate cut is already priced in? Or worse, what if it's a hawkish cut, hinting at rates staying higher for longer? JPMorgan and RBC Capital Markets are already raising eyebrows.

每个人都期望美联储降低利率，这应该提高像比特币这样的风险资产。现货比特币ETF的流入大量流入，Q4历史上看好加密货币。但是，这就是捕获量：如果降价已经定价怎么办？或更糟糕的是，如果这是鹰派的削减，暗示率更高的速度更高呢？摩根大通和加拿大皇家银行的资本市场已经在引起人们的注意。

Beyond Bitcoin: A Broader Crypto Shift

超越比特币：更广泛的加密转变

It's not just about Bitcoin. We're seeing institutional capital flowing into Ether ETFs, while Bitcoin funds experience minor outflows. XRP and Solana futures are gaining traction. The game is changing, and the crypto landscape is diversifying.

这不仅仅是比特币。我们看到机构资本流入Ether ETF，而比特币基金经历了较小的流出。 XRP和Solana期货正在吸引。游戏正在发生变化，加密景观正在多样化。

The Million-Dollar Bitcoin Dream

百万美元的比特币梦想

Let's not forget the optimists! The Winklevoss twins are still betting on Bitcoin hitting $1 million, arguing it's a modern-day gold. They see current levels as early stages of adoption. Even Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong thinks a million-dollar Bitcoin by 2030 is possible. Cathie Wood is even more bullish, projecting $1.5 million if institutional adoption accelerates. Now that's some serious NYC hustle!

我们不要忘记乐观主义者！ Winklevoss双胞胎仍在押注比特币，跌入100万美元，认为这是现代的黄金。他们认为当前水平是采用的早期阶段。甚至Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong也认为，到2030年可能有一百万美元的比特币。凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的看涨更加看涨，如果机构采用加速，预计150万美元。现在，这是一些严肃的纽约市！

My Two Satoshis

我的两个satoshis

The market's at a crossroads. A Fed rate cut might not be the magic bullet everyone hopes for, and technical indicators suggest a potential pullback. But long-term, Bitcoin's story is far from over. The launch of spot ETFs has legitimized Bitcoin. The trend of Bitcoin's realized volatility declining to record lows shows a maturing market structure with more diverse participants. So, buckle up! It's gonna be a bumpy, potentially profitable, ride.

市场正处于十字路口。削减美联储率可能并不是每个人都希望的魔力，而且技术指标表明潜在的回调。但是长期，比特币的故事还远远没有结束。现场ETF的推出已合法化了比特币。比特币实现的波动性降低记录低谷的趋势表明，与参与者更加多样化的市场结构。所以，搭扣！这将是一个颠簸，有利可图的骑行。

The Bottom Line

底线

Will Bitcoin crash? Will the Fed save the day? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the crypto world never sleeps, especially not in New York. So, keep your eyes peeled, your wits sharp, and maybe, just maybe, you'll catch the next big wave. And if not, hey, there's always pizza.

比特币会崩溃吗？美联储会节省一天吗？只有时间会证明。但是可以肯定的是：加密世界永远不会睡觉，尤其是在纽约。因此，请保持眼睛脱皮，智慧敏锐，也许，也许，您会抓住下一个大浪。如果没有，嘿，总会有披萨。