查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 预测，随着各国采用比特币，比特币可能“完全取代黄金”

比特币价格已飙升至每比特币 70,000 美元左右的历史高点，从 2022 年的崩盘中恢复过来，高盛的加密货币主管认为这可能标志着比特币价格的“转折点”。

The price of bitcoin has soared back to its all-time high of around $70,000 per bitcoin, recovering from a 2022 crash that Goldman Sachs' crypto lead thinks could signal a bitcoin price "turning point."

比特币的价格已经飙升至每比特币 70,000 美元左右的历史高点，从 2022 年的崩盘中恢复过来，高盛的加密货币主管认为这可能预示着比特币价格的“转折点”。

Now, after U.S. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen issued a serious warning over the swelling $34 trillion U.S. debt pile, former billionaire and All In podcast "bestie" Chamath Palihapitiya has predicted bitcoin could "completely replace gold" as countries adopt it—potentially pushing it's market capitalization toward gold's $15.7 trillion.

现在，在美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 对不断膨胀的 34 万亿美元债务发出严重警告后，前亿万富翁、All In 播客“闺蜜”查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚 (Chamath Palihapitiya) 预测，随着各国采用比特币，比特币可能会“完全取代黄金”，从而可能推动其市场发展黄金资本金达到 15.7 万亿美元。

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Fears have emerged that U.S. dollar debasement could lead to the currency's collapse as the world's ... [+] reserve asset—potentially making way for bitcoin to replace gold and sparking a huge bitcoin price rally.

人们担心美元贬值可能导致该货币作为世界储备资产的崩溃，这可能为比特币取代黄金让路，并引发比特币价格大幅上涨。

"There's an increasing body of countries that will become dual-currency," Palihapitiya, who claimed to have bought $1 million worth of bitcoin in 2010 when it was trading at around $80, said on the podcast he hosts along with fellow investors David Friedburg, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks.

“越来越多的国家将采用双货币，”帕里哈皮蒂亚 (Palihapitiya) 在他与其他投资者大卫·弗里德伯格 (David Friedburg) 共同主持的播客中表示，他在 2010 年购买了价值 100 万美元的比特币，当时比特币的交易价格约为 80 美元。贾森·卡拉卡尼斯和大卫·萨克斯。

"They will look at their local currency and they will look at bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. The first for when they're transacting on a daily basis for goods and services and the second when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, they'll buy bitcoin."

“他们会关注当地货币，也会关注比特币。他们会说这两件事都是必要的。第一个是当他们每天进行商品和服务交易时，第二个是当你需要时购买需要残值的永久资产，他们就会购买比特币。”

El Salvador made history when it adopted bitcoin as its official currency alongside the U.S. dollar in 2021 with mixed success, sparking debate whether other countries would follow suit though no major countries have yet.

萨尔瓦多于 2021 年采用比特币与美元并列作为其官方货币，取得了不同程度的成功，从而创造了历史，引发了关于其他国家是否会效仿的争论，尽管目前还没有主要国家这样做。

However, Palihapitiya added he thinks that "there are a lot of countries that will never look at bitcoin credibly even if they support it," with the U.S. perhaps "one of those."

然而，帕里哈皮蒂亚补充说，他认为“有很多国家即使支持比特币，也永远不会可信地看待比特币”，美国也许是“其中之一”。

Palihapitiya pointed to the historical bitcoin price charts that show huge increases in the bitcoin price following so-called bitcoin halvings that reduce the supply of new bitcoin issued to miners that maintain the network. The latest bitcoin halving, its fourth which cut the daily supply of new bitcoin from around 900 to 450, happened in April.

Palihapitiya 指出，历史比特币价格图表显示，在所谓的比特币减半之后，比特币价格大幅上涨，减少了向维护网络的矿工发行的新比特币的供应。最近一次比特币减半发生在 4 月份，这是第四次减半，每日新比特币供应量从 900 左右减少到 450 左右。

If the bitcoin price repeats its past performance after this halving, it could soar to almost $500,000 by October 2025.

如果比特币价格在减半后重现过去的表现，到 2025 年 10 月可能会飙升至近 50 万美元。

"If you apply these averages, they're by no means [bitcoin price] predictions, they're just guesses, you start to see what could happen if you take the average of the last few cycles," Palihapitiya said. "The average of cycle two and three is some really meaningful appreciation."

“如果你应用这些平均值，它们绝不是[比特币价格]预测，它们只是猜测，你开始看到如果你取最近几个周期的平均值会发生什么，”帕里哈皮蒂亚说。 “第二和第三周期的平均值是一些真正有意义的升值。”

Historical bitcoin price data shows that after previous bitcoin halvings, the bitcoin price peaked around 18 months after the supply cut.

历史比特币价格数据显示，在之前的比特币减半之后，比特币价格在供应削减后的 18 个月左右达到顶峰。

"If this thing gets to these levels of appreciation, it's going to completely replace gold and become something that has transactional utility for hard assets," Palihapitiya said. "If you marry that with this fear that some folks have about dollar debasement, you start to see some interesting opportunities."

帕里哈皮蒂亚说：“如果这个东西达到这样的升值水平，它将完全取代黄金，成为具有硬资产交易效用的东西。” “如果你把这一点与一些人对美元贬值的恐惧结合起来，你就会开始看到一些有趣的机会。”

06/03 update: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has written a report outlining the narratives around "declining dollar shares in official reserves, and increasing roles for gold holdings by central banks," which is says has been "inappropriately" generalized beyond "the actions of a small group of countries."

06/03更新：纽约联邦储备银行撰写了一份报告，概述了有关“官方储备中美元份额下降以及央行持有黄金的作用增加”的叙述，据称该报告被“不恰当地”概括为“一小部分国家的行动。”

The report authors found global central banks and finance ministries held nearly $12 trillion of foreign exchange reserves as of the end of 2023, with nearly $7 trillion composed of U.S. dollar assets. World Gold Council data shows "global central banks purchased over 1,100 tons of gold in 2022—more than double the purchase amounts of the previous year—and maintained a similar purchase level in 2023," according to the report.

报告作者发现，截至2023年底，全球央行和财政部持有近12万亿美元的外汇储备，其中近7万亿美元为美元资产。世界黄金协会的数据显示，“全球央行在 2022 年购买了超过 1,100 吨黄金，是上一年购买量的两倍多，并在 2023 年保持了类似的购买水平”。

"The Fed now admits some countries are moving to gold," tech investor and former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan posted to X, pointing to what the Fed says is a "small group" that "represents 3 billion people. So 37.5% of the world is moving away from dollars towards gold."

科技投资者、Coinbase 前首席技术官 Balaji Srinivasan 在 X 上发帖称，“美联储现在承认一些国家正在转向黄金”，他指出美联储所说的“小群体”“代表 30 亿人”。因此，37.5% 的人世界正在从美元转向黄金。”

Earlier this year, Bank of America analysts warned the U.S. debt load is about to ramp up to

今年早些时候，美国银行分析师警告称，美国债务负担即将攀升至