比特币的公牛运行：市场信号指向关键时刻

比特币在一个棘手的阶段导航，分析师剖析了市场信号，以了解有关牛跑的潜在峰值的线索和政策变化的潜在峰值。

Bitcoin, baby! It's always something, right? The crypto king is at a crossroads, and everyone's trying to figure out if this epic bull run is about to tap out. Volatility's tightening, and the market's throwing out mixed signals like a confused DJ. Let's dive into what's happening.

比特币，宝贝！总是什么，对吧？加密王王正处于十字路口，每个人都试图弄清楚这种史诗般的牛跑是否要淘汰。波动性的收紧，市场像混乱的DJ一样抛出混合信号。让我们深入了解正在发生的事情。

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Nearing Its End?

比特币公牛的跑步即将结束吗？

Some analysts are saying the Bitcoin bull run could be over within a month. According to ‘CRYPTOBIRD,’ this cycle's already 1,038 days in, putting it at 97.5% of a typical cycle. Historically, the last 2.5% is where things get wild, with prices going bonkers and catching everyone off guard. Think of it as the last lap in a Formula 1 race – that's where the real action happens.

一些分析师说，比特币牛的运行可能会在一个月内结束。根据“ Cryptobird”的说法，这个周期已经有1,038天，将其占典型周期的97.5％。从历史上看，最后2.5％是事情变得疯狂的地方，价格持续不断，让所有人措手不及。将其视为一级方程式比赛中的最后一圈 - 这就是真正的行动发生的地方。

Technically, Bitcoin's been trading in a super tight range, signaling some serious compression. But recently, it dipped a bit. Key levels to watch? The 200-week SMA at $53,111 (long-term support), the 50-week SMA near $99,000 (the bull market floor), and the SPX correlation (-0.19). The Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, hinting at potentially bearish times. If Bitcoin can hang above $112,250, the bulls might just keep the party going.

从技术上讲，比特币的交易范围很紧，标志着一些严重的压缩。但是最近，它有点蘸。观看的关键水平？ 200周的SMA为53,111美元（长期支持），50周的SMA接近99,000美元（牛市市场）和SPX相关性（-0.19）。当前的趋势框架（CTF）为114,916美元，暗示了潜在的看跌时代。如果比特币可以超过$ 112,250，则公牛可能会保持聚会的举办。

Halving Math and Volatility Squeeze

减少数学和波动性挤压

Bitcoin's now over 520 days post-halving, putting it smack-dab in the historical “peak window.” Every major cycle top in the past has happened around this time. Spooky, right? Adding to the mix, volatility's getting squeezed like a tube of toothpaste. When volatility gets this low, history suggests we're about to see a major breakout in a couple of weeks. Buckle up!

比特币现在久之后520天，将其击打在历史上的“峰窗”中。过去的每个主要循环顶部都发生在这个时候。怪异，对吗？加上混合物，波动率像牙膏管一样被挤压。当波动率这么低时，历史表明我们将在几周内看到重大突破。扣！

Even institutions seem to be hedging their bets, with Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. The Fear and Greed index is at 44, meaning people are getting a little scared instead of euphoric. September, usually a rough month for Bitcoin, actually saw a gain. Maybe October, typically a good month, will keep the momentum going into a bullish Q4.

即使是机构似乎也在对冲他们的赌注，比特币ETF流动显示分布。恐惧和贪婪指数在44岁，这意味着人们有点害怕而不是欣快。 9月，通常是比特币的艰难月份，实际上看到了收益。也许十月（通常是一个好月份）会使势头保持在看涨的第四季度。

Market Signals and the Fed's Next Move

市场信号和美联储的下一步行动

Bitcoin's been struggling to reclaim the $113,000 level, stuck between conflicting technical signals and potential interest rate cuts from the Fed. Lower rates usually give Bitcoin a boost, but investors are still jittery about support levels and the stock market.

比特币一直在努力收回113,000美元的水平，这停留在相互矛盾的技术信号与美联储降低的潜在利率之间。较低的利率通常会增强比特币，但投资者仍然对支持水平和股票市场感到不安。

After a recent dip to $111,600, traders are on edge. Holding current levels is crucial, with $115K as the next big resistance. Some analysts are eyeing $108,000 as the next major support zone. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is another key marker – a drop below that could trigger a selloff.

在最近跌至111,600美元之后，贸易商处于边缘状态。保持当前水平至关重要，$ 115K是下一个大电阻。一些分析师将108,000美元视为下一个主要支持区。 100天的指数移动平均线（EMA）是另一个关键标记 - 低于以下的下降可能会触发抛售。

The Nasdaq Connection and the Fed's Policy Shift

纳斯达克连接和美联储的政策变化

Bitcoin's closely tied to the Nasdaq 100, and the Nasdaq's daily RSI is flashing a warning sign. Last time it was this high, the Nasdaq took a 17% dive. A similar correction could drag Bitcoin down with it.

比特币与纳斯达克100号密切相关，纳斯达克的每日RSI正在闪烁警告标志。上次是如此之高时，纳斯达克进行了17％的潜水。类似的校正可能会将比特币拖延。

On the bright side, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman hinted at potentially faster interest rate cuts. Lower rates are generally good for Bitcoin, but the market's reaction has been tepid. Traders seem more worried about the technical picture and the stock market than excited about potential Fed easing.

在明亮的一面，美联储的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）暗示了潜在的降低利率。较低的利率通常对比特币有益，但是市场的反应却很温和。交易者似乎比对潜在的美食兴奋更担心技术情况和股票市场。

TeraWulf's Bold Move with Google's Backing

Terawulf对Google的支持大胆举动

TeraWulf, a Bitcoin miner shifting into data center services, is lining up about $3 billion in debt financing to build out facilities, backed by Google. This move signals a shift beyond pure Bitcoin mining, using power and site assets for third-party compute, including AI workloads.

比特币矿工转入数据中心服务的Terawulf将在Google的支持下排队约30亿美元的债务融资，以建立设施。此举使用电力和现场资产进行第三方计算，包括AI工作负载，这标志着超越纯比特币采矿的转变。

This could change TeraWulf’s revenue mix and attract new customers. Similar moves by other miners show that big tech ties can lead to large hosting deals. But building and running data centers takes time, steady power, and careful cost control.

这可能会改变Terawulf的收入组合并吸引新客户。其他矿工的类似举动表明，大型技术关系可能会导致大型托管交易。但是，构建和运行的数据中心需要时间，稳定的力量和仔细的成本控制。

So, What's Next?

那么，下一步是什么？

Bitcoin's future is still up in the air. Bulls see the Fed's stance as a long-term positive, while bears are worried about weak price action and external market opportunities. Keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's next speech and whether Bitcoin can hold support above $112,000.

比特币的未来仍然浮出水面。公牛将美联储的立场视为长期积极的立场，而熊则担心价格疲软和外部市场机会。请密切关注美联储椅子杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的下一场演讲，以及比特币是否可以在112,000美元以上的支持。

In the meantime, let's sit back, grab some popcorn, and watch the show. Crypto never sleeps, and neither do the opportunities (or the risks!).

同时，让我们坐下来，抓住一些爆米花并观看节目。加密永远不会睡觉，也没有机会（或风险！）。