分析师说，比特币牛周期还没有结束。

自2月初以来，比特币一直在努力打破100,000美元的成绩。

Bitcoin’s bull cycle may still be raging on, with two indicators suggesting that the leading coin’s price could continue to rise.

比特币的牛周期可能仍在肆虐，有两个指标表明，领先的硬币的价格可能会继续上涨。

According to CryptoQuant’s pseudonymous analyst MAC_D, two crucial on-chain metrics point towards a bullish uptrend for BTC.

根据CryptoQuant的化名分析师MAC_D的说法，两个至关重要的链链指标指向BTC的看涨上升趋势。

In a recent analysis, the analyst highlights the realized market capitalization and the proportion of coins held by long-term holders (LTHs) as key indicators.

在最近的分析中，分析师强调了已实现的市值和长期持有人（LTHS）作为关键指标所持有的硬币的比例。

Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, which calculates the coin’s total value at the price it last moved, has reached an all-time high of $857 billion. This metric is crucial as it reflects the value held by long-term investors and the cost basis of the coins in circulation.

比特币实现的市值，以其上次上涨的价格计算了硬币的总价值，已达到8570亿美元的历史最高水平。该指标至关重要，因为它反映了长期投资者的价值以及发行中硬币的成本基础。

When BTC’s realized market cap rises like this, it indicates that long-term investors, such as those who have held their coins for over a year, are continuing to hold on. It also suggests that the coins that have changed hands recently are doing so at increasingly higher prices. This is usually seen as a sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.

当BTC实现的市值上升时，它表明长期投资者（例如那些拥有硬币的人一年多的人）将继续坚持下去。这也表明，最近易手的硬币以越来越高的价格做到这一点。这通常被视为对比特币未来价值的信心。

With more coins being held at higher prices, it can reduce selling pressure from LTHs. They are unlikely to sell unless the coin’s value reaches levels well above their acquisition cost. This can reduce the downward pressure on the coin and could lead to more upward momentum in the short term.

随着更多的硬币以更高的价格持有，它可以减轻LTH的销售压力。除非硬币的价值达到其收购成本的水平，否则它们不太可能出售。这可以降低硬币的向下压力，并在短期内导致更高的动量。

This trend is further confirmed by the increasing proportion of coins being held by BTC’s LTHs.

通过BTC的LTHS持有的硬币比例增加，进一步证实了这一趋势。

“At the previous cycle’s price peak, their proportion was 15.66%, while it currently stands at 39.74%. This suggests that the market likely hasn’t reached its peak yet, considering the previous cycle’s ratio,” MACD_D writes.

“在上一个周期的价格高峰时，它们的比例为15.66％，而目前为39.74％。这表明，考虑到上一个周期的比率，市场可能还没有达到顶峰。” MacD_D写道。

This increase suggests that long-term investors now hold a significant portion of Bitcoin. Given that the previous cycle’s price peak occurred when the ratio was much lower, the current ratio suggests there’s still room for price growth before reaching a cycle top.

这一增长表明，长期投资者现在拥有大部分比特币。鉴于上一个周期的价格峰值在比率较低时发生，因此当前比率表明在达到周期顶部之前，仍然有价格增长的余地。

BTC Price Now, What’s Next?

BTC价格现在，下一步是什么？

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,834, resting above the support level at $95,513. A sustained increase in coins held by LTHs could drive BTC towards the next resistance at $98,118.

在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为96,834美元，在支撑级高于95,513美元以上。 LTHS持有的硬币持续增加可能会将BTC推向下一个阻力，为98,118美元。

If this key resistance is breached, BTC could surge past $100,000, signaling a new phase in the bull run.

如果违反了这种关键阻力，BTC可能会超过100,000美元，这标志着公牛奔跑的新阶段。

However, if profit-taking intensifies, this bullish outlook may be invalidated. In that case, BTC’s price could dip below the $95,513 support, potentially falling to the next level at $91,473.

但是，如果利润增强，这种看涨的前景可能会无效。在这种情况下，BTC的价格可能低于95,513美元的支持，有可能下降至91,473美元。