比特币（BTC-USD）在过去几天经历了大幅抛售

比特币（BTC-USD）在过去几天经历了非常大幅度的抛售，上个月下跌了 20% 以上。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has experienced a very substantial sell-off in the last couple of days and is down over 20% in the last month.

比特币（BTC-USD）在过去几天经历了非常大幅度的抛售，上个月下跌了 20% 以上。

Panic has hit the crypto world, and a lot of people are already talking about a bear market.

恐慌席卷了加密世界，很多人已经在谈论熊市。

However, we can actually look behind the scenes here to try and better understand why Bitcoin is selling off.

然而，我们实际上可以看看幕后，试图更好地理解比特币为何遭到抛售。

Furthermore, we can use technical analysis to determine the key levels of support that we might test in the next few days.

此外，我们可以使用技术分析来确定我们可能在未来几天测试的关键支撑位。

Ultimately, the fundamentals for Bitcoin have not changed. Data suggests we will see trillions flow into crypto over the next decade.

最终，比特币的基本面没有改变。数据表明，未来十年我们将看到数万亿美元流入加密货币领域。

Bitcoin sell-off explained

比特币抛售解释

The German government has been quietly selling off the Bitcoin it seized over the last few weeks. According to on-chain data, the German government sold around $175 million in Bitcoin on July 4th. And this is just the tip of the iceberg, since the European country still holds a neat stash of around 40,000 Bitcoin.

德国政府一直在悄悄出售过去几周扣押的比特币。根据链上数据，德国政府于 7 月 4 日出售了约 1.75 亿美元的比特币。这只是冰山一角，因为这个欧洲国家仍然持有约 40,000 个比特币。

Following the initial price crash, the founder of Tron (TRON-USD), Justin Sun, offered to buy up all of Germany’s Bitcoin off-chain in order to prevent further price crashes.

在最初的价格暴跌之后，Tron（TRON-USD）的创始人孙宇晨提出购买所有德国链下比特币，以防止进一步的价格暴跌。

We’ve also seen some German MPs voice their disagreement with the country’s actions. Joana Costa said the Bitcoin sales were a hasty move, and that the government should consider holding on to the cryptocurrency in order to diversify the nation’s Treasury reserves.

我们还看到一些德国议员表达了他们对该国行动的不同意见。乔安娜·科斯塔 (Joana Costa) 表示，比特币销售是仓促之举，政府应考虑持有加密​​货币，以使国家财政部储备多元化。

On top of the sales from the German government, which are a verifiable fact, there’s also some speculation that investors could be selling their Bitcoin received from the recent Mt.Gox settlement, or that perhaps short-sellers are pre-empting this move.

除了德国政府出售比特币（这是一个可验证的事实）之外，还有一些猜测称，投资者可能会出售从最近 Mt.Gox 和解协议中收到的比特币，或者卖空者可能会先发制人。

Mt.Gox was one of the first large centralized crypto exchanges, and following its bankruptcy, legal procedures have taken place in order to re-pay their users to the extent possible. The trustee for the Mt.Gox bankruptcy estate said that they had begun paying out settlements in Bitcoin this Friday.

Mt.Gox 是最早的大型中心化加密货币交易所之一，在破产后，已采取法律程序以尽可能地偿还用户费用。 Mt.Gox 破产财产的受托人表示，他们已于本周五开始以比特币支付和解金。

That’s about $9 billion worth of Bitcoin that could be entering as possible selling pressure.

价值约 90 亿美元的比特币可能会面临抛售压力。

Fundamentally, there’s been a temporary and sudden spike in selling pressure, without a commensurate increase in demand.

从根本上说，抛售压力出现了暂时的突然飙升，而需求却没有相应增加。

It’s certainly worth noting that this sell-off really began taking place on July 4th, a day when regular markets are closed in the US, and one would expect the crypto market to also be less liquid than usual.

当然值得注意的是，这种抛售实际上是在 7 月 4 日开始发生的，这一天美国常规市场休市，人们预计加密货币市场的流动性也将低于平时。

Bitcoin technical outlook

比特币技术展望

Looking at the technicals, however, we are well within the range of a correction I would expect in Bitcoin.

然而，从技术面来看，我们完全处于我对比特币预期的修正范围之内。

Bitcoin weekly chart (Trendspider)

比特币周线图（Trendspider）

Looking at the weekly chart, I’d say we are still forming an impulse from the lows back in 2023.

从周线图来看，我想说我们仍在形成 2023 年低点的推动力。

Bitcoin topped around $70,000 in a wave 3 and has now formed a corrective ABC structure in a wave 4. As I write this, we are finding support around the 38.2% retracement, and we are also holding above the 50 week MA.

比特币在第 3 波中触及 70,000 美元左右，目前已在第 4 波中形成修正 ABC 结构。在我撰写本文时，我们正在 38.2% 回撤位附近找到支撑，并且我们也守在 50 周均线上方。

The RSI is approaching 50 and the last time this happened on the weekly was just ahead of the wave 5 rally.

RSI 接近 50，周线最后一次发生这种情况是在第 5 波反弹之前。

BTC daily chart (Trendspider)

BTC日线图（Trendspider）

Zooming in, we can see that we have completed an ABC in wave 4, with the plates moving down a pretty clean five-wave structure.

放大后，我们可以看到我们已经完成了第 4 波中的 ABC，板块沿着相当干净的五波结构向下移动。

It’s definitely quite encouraging to see that while the price has fallen, the RSI has held quite well, giving us a bullish divergence.

看到虽然价格下跌，但 RSI 保持良好，给我们带来了看涨背离，这绝对是令人鼓舞的。

We did break below the 200 EMA on the daily chart, but we also saw this happen earlier in this bullish cycle.

日线图上我们确实跌破了 200 EMA，但我们也在这个看涨周期的早期看到了这种情况的发生。

$54,000 could be the bottom, but below that our next main area of support is just around $50,000 where we have the 50% retracement.

54,000 美元可能是底部，但低于该水平，我们的下一个主要支撑区域就在 50,000 美元左右，那里有 50% 的回撤。

Below that, we may have to worry about the more immediate future of Bitcoin, though I would still argue it would be an attractive long-term buy.

低于此水平，我们可能不得不担心比特币的更近期的未来，尽管我仍然认为它将是一个有吸引力的长期购买。

Bitcoin fundamentals remain supportive

比特币基本面依然支撑

The fundamental landscape for Bitcoin is still very much supportive of higher prices, with three great sources of demand coming in over the next few years to push this higher:

比特币的基本面仍然非常支持价格上涨，未来几年将出现三大需求来源来推高价格：

Institutions

机构

Nations

国家

Young(er) Investors

年轻投资者

The adoption by institutions, including funds and companies, is already well underway. Institutional AUM is over $60 trillion, and we are already seeing a change in the tide. Microstrategy (MSTR) is heavily accumulating Bitcoin, and so are other companies like Tesla (TSLA). US companies hold around $6.9 trillion in cash reserves that could potentially make their way into Bitcoin and even other cryptocurrencies.

包括基金和公司在内的机构的采用已经在顺利进行。机构资产管理规模超过 60 万亿美元，我们已经看到潮流发生了变化。 Microstrategy (MSTR) 正在大量积累比特币，特斯拉 (TSLA) 等其他公司也是如此。美国公司持有约 6.9 万亿美元的现金储备，这些现金储备有可能进入比特币甚至其他加密货币。

Furthermore, we may see a shift in nations too. Yes, this may still be far away, but the recent sales by Germany have brought this fact to the forefront. There are politicians within the system making the case for Bitcoin.

此外，我们也可能会看到国家的转变。是的，这可能还很遥远，但德国最近的销售已经让这一事实成为人们关注的焦点。系统内有一些政客为比特币辩护。

Even Donald Trump, who could potentially

即使是唐纳德·特朗普，他也有可能