比特币（BTC）和传统市场可能有望在美国 - 中国90天关税协议之后进行集会：分析

美国和中国之间的一项为期90天的关税协议可能为更广泛的股票和加密货币市场奠定了基础

A 90-day agreement by the US and China to reduce their tariffs may set the stage for a broader recovery of stock and cryptocurrency markets, as investors also anticipate a potential tax relief package.

美国和中国达成的为期90天的协议降低关税可能会为更广泛的股票和加密货币市场恢复奠定基础，因为投资者还预计潜在的税收减免方案。

The White House announced on May 12 that the two countries will decrease their respective tariffs to 10% for an initial 90-day period beginning May 14 — a 24% cut from current levels.

白宫于5月12日宣布，两国将从5月14日开始的最初90天期间将各自的关税降低到10％，从目前的水平降低了24％。

Speaking at a news conference in Geneva on May 12, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both governments are aligned on avoiding further economic decoupling.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在日内瓦举行的新闻发布会上说，这两个政府都在避免进一步的经济脱钩方面保持一致。

“The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent said. “What has occurred with these very high tariffs was an equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade. We want more balance in trade.”

Bessent说：“两个代表团的共识都不愿意解耦。” “这些非常高的关税发生的事情相当于禁运，双方都想要。我们确实想要贸易。我们希望在贸易上取得更多平衡。”

Both nations will keep their tariffs at 10% for the next 90 days, after which they plan to engage in another round of negotiations to strike a broader trade deal. The two economic superpowers will also cooperate on new areas of economic partnership, according to a joint statement from the US and China.

在接下来的90天内，两国将使关税保持10％，之后他们计划进行另一轮谈判以达成更广泛的贸易协议。根据美国和中国的联合声明，这两个经济超级大国也将在经济伙伴关系的新领域合作。

Pointing to the constructive tone of the negotiations, and the 90-day suspension of additional tariffs, Aurelie Barther, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, said this removes the risk of “sudden re-escalation.” This may help altcoins and traditional stock markets follow Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recovery.

Crypto Intelligence平台Nansen的首席研究分析师Aurelie Barther指出了谈判的建设性基调，以及额外关税的90天暂停，说这消除了“突然重新提升的风险”。这可能有助于Altcoins和传统股票市场跟随比特币（BTC）的价格回收。

“Bitcoin is already trading very close to its all-time high,” Barther told Cointelegraph. “But with the latest easing in trade tensions, it now appears that altcoins, US equities, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) are well-positioned for a catch-up rally.”

Barther告诉Cointelegraph：“比特币已经非常接近其历史最高水平。” “但是，随着贸易紧张局势的最新缓解，现在看来Altcoins，美国股票和美元指数（DXY）井井有条，以进行追赶集。”

She noted that Bitcoin has outperformed other major risk assets in recent months due to its insulation from tariff-related risks.

她指出，由于与关税相关的风险隔离，比特币在近几个月中胜过其他主要风险资产。

“I would also expect the dollar to perform strongly against prior 'safe-haven' currencies like the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen, reflecting the improved global risk sentiment.”

“我还希望这笔美元能够与先前的'避风港'货币（如欧元，瑞士法郎和日元）进行强劲表现，这反映了全球风险情绪的改善。”

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance for crypto and stocks to find their bottom by June, with their price recovery depending on the outcome of trade negotiations.

Nansen此前曾预测，加密货币和股票在6月的最低点上有70％的机会，取决于贸易谈判的结果。

Tax relief could amplify rally

税收减免可以扩大集会

Bitcoin is currently 4.8% away from recapruring its all-time high of over $109,800, reached in January 2025, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，比特币目前距离其历史最高额为109,800美元，距离其有史以来高度超过109,800美元。

“There is potential for risk assets to move beyond the January peak levels if we see a generous tax cut package materialize,” Barther added.

Barther补充说：“如果我们看到慷慨的减税套餐实现，风险资产可能会超出一月份的峰值水平。”

She noted that Bessent hinted such a package could be unveiled by mid-July, which would act as a “significant additional catalyst” for the markets.

她指出，Bessent暗示了这样的包裹可以在7月中旬宣布，这将是市场的“重要额外催化剂”。

The constructive trade negotiations, paired with emerging technical chart patterns, have spurred analyst calls for a Bitcoin rally to $150,000, depending on the outcome of an emerging bull flag pattern on the weekly chart.

建设性的贸易谈判与新兴的技术图表模式相结合，促使分析师要求比特币集会至150,000美元，具体取决于每周图表上新兴的牛旗模式的结果。