分析师告诉 Benzinga，由于获利回吐、衍生品数据和历史趋势，比特币 (BTC) 难以突破 100,000 美元大关

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，比特币目前交易价格为 94,870 美元，当日下跌 0.4%。

Bitcoin BTC/USD encountered resistance at the $100,000 level on Monday, pausing its recent rally. Several analysts shared their insights on the price movement and the factors impacting Bitcoin's next move.

比特币 BTC/USD 周一在 100,000 美元水平遇到阻力，暂停了近期的涨势。几位分析师分享了他们对价格走势以及影响比特币下一步走势的因素的见解。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,870, down 0.4% for the day, according to data from CoinGecko.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，比特币目前交易价格为 94,870 美元，当日下跌 0.4%。

Here's what analysts are saying about Bitcoin's struggle to cross the $100,000 mark.

以下是分析师对比特币难以突破 10 万美元大关的看法。

Consolidation Phase, Not Weakness

巩固阶段，而非疲软阶段

Avinash Shekhar, co-founder and CEO of Pi42, told Benzinga that Bitcoin's pullback from recent highs is part of a consolidation phase rather than a sign of weakness.

Pi42 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Avinash Shekhar 告诉 Benzinga，比特币从近期高点回落是盘整阶段的一部分，而不是疲软的迹象。

"Despite the pullback, demand in derivatives markets remains robust, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged BTC positions," he said.

他表示：“尽管出现回调，衍生品市场的需求仍然强劲，交易者为杠杆 BTC 头寸支付了 17% 的年化溢价。”

"The Bitcoin options markets also show confidence, as options are trading at an 8% discount, indicating reduced hedging demand. Funding rates for perpetual contracts also remain neutral at 1.4%, indicating a balanced leverage environment."

“比特币期权市场也表现出信心，因为期权交易折扣为 8%，这表明对冲需求减少。永续合约的融资利率也保持在 1.4% 的中性水平，表明杠杆环境平衡。”

Also Read: Leveraged MicroStrategy ETFs Are Playing With Fire, Experts Warn

另请阅读：专家警告称，杠杆式 MicroStrategy ETF 正在玩火

Profit-Taking, Resistance Levels

获利了结、阻力位

James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet, attributes Bitcoin's dip to profit-taking following its $25,000 surge in the past month.

Unity Wallet 首席运营官 James Toledano 将比特币的下跌归因于过去一​​个月飙升 25,000 美元后的获利了结。

"The presence of put options between $98,000 and $99,000 has also created resistance levels," he said.

“98,000 美元至 99,000 美元之间看跌期权的存在也创造了阻力位，”他说。

"Profit-taking has likely exerted downward pressure on the price. However, it's crucial to note that Bitcoin's historical patterns show significant corrections after rapid ascents."

“获利回吐可能对价格造成下行压力。然而，值得注意的是，比特币的历史模式在快速上涨后出现了重大调整。”

Toledano adds that previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, saw Bitcoin's steep gains followed by sharp declines of up to 70%.

Toledano 补充说，之前的周期，例如 2017 年和 2021 年，比特币经历了急剧上涨，随后又急剧下跌，跌幅高达 70%。

"While this doesn't guarantee an imminent correction, it does suggest that the market could be due for a pullback after such a rapid rally from recent lows."

“虽然这并不能保证即将出现回调，但它确实表明市场在从近期低点如此迅速反弹后可能会回调。”

Altcoin Season, Institutional Interest

山寨币季节，机构兴趣

Arthur Azizov, CEO of B2BINPAY, observed that Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $91,000 to $99,000, with the $100,000 mark acting as a psychological barrier.

B2BINPAY 首席执行官 Arthur Azizov 观察到，比特币一直在 91,000 美元至 99,000 美元的狭窄区间内交易，其中 100,000 美元大关是一个心理障碍。

"Interest in the market remains strong, driven by altcoin season and substantial inflows from institutional and retail investors," he said.

他表示：“在山寨币季节以及机构和散户投资者大量资金流入的推动下，市场兴趣依然强劲。”

"According to CoinMarketCap's Alt season Index, the market is in alt season territory, with a score of 83."

“根据 CoinMarketCap 的替代季节指数，市场处于替代季节区域，得分为 83。”

"We could see a potential pullback to $82,000, but overall, the market is still bullish."

“我们可能会看到潜在的回调至 82,000 美元，但总体而言，市场仍然看涨。”

Technical Analysis: Consolidation, Neutral Outlook

技术分析：盘整，展望中性

Technical analysts at Fairlead Strategies maintain a neutral short-term outlook for Bitcoin, based on indicators such as the daily MACD and DeMARK signals, which are pointing to consolidation.

Fairlead Strategies 的技术分析师根据每日 MACD 和 DeMARK 信号等指标维持比特币的中性短期前景，这些指标表明比特币将出现盘整。

"Initial support is now seen at $80,400 with the 100K round number acting as key resistance," they said.

他们表示：“目前初步支撑位为 80,400 美元，10 万整数为关键阻力位。”

"Long-term momentum is still strong, supporting a bullish outlook beyond the current consolidation phase."

“长期势头仍然强劲，支持当前盘整阶段后的看涨前景。”

"All signs hint at Bitcoin being in its consolidation phase rather than a weakness phase," Shekhar further said.

“所有迹象都表明比特币正处于盘整阶段，而不是疲软阶段，”谢卡尔进一步表示。

"Consolidation is a necessary part of any bull market and typically manifests as a period of sideways price movement or a range after a strong directional move."

“盘整是任何牛市的必要组成部分，通常表现为一段时期的价格横向波动或强劲的方向性波动后的区间波动。”

"During consolidation periods, technical indicators such as the MACD and DeMARK often flatten out, indicating a period of indecision or digestion in the market structure."

“在盘整期间，MACD 和 DeMARK 等技术指标经常趋于平缓，表明市场结构处于犹豫不决或消化的时期。”

"Typically, consolidation periods are followed by a continuation of the primary trend, which in this case would be further upside price action."

“通常情况下，盘整期之后是主要趋势的延续，在这种情况下，这将是进一步的上行价格走势。”

Toledano adds that while corrections are common after rapid gains, they don't necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin's bull run.

托莱达诺补充说，虽然在快速上涨后出现调整很常见，但这并不一定意味着比特币牛市的结束。

"It's important to remember that corrections are a natural part of any bull market and not necessarily a cause for concern unless they lead to a complete reversal of the recent gains," he said.

他表示：“重要的是要记住，调整是任何牛市的自然组成部分，并不一定会引起担忧，除非它们导致近期涨幅完全逆转。”

"If Bitcoin can continue to hold support at key levels like the 200-day moving average, the bull run could still continue despite any pullbacks."

“如果比特币能够继续在 200 日移动均线等关键水平保持支撑，那么尽管有任何回调，牛市仍可能继续。”

Read Next: Image: Pixabay

继续阅读： 图片：Pixabay