比特币（BTC）面临短期修正，月线图接近看涨吞没模式

距离比特币 (BTC) 月度价格图表 18 个月以来首次完成看涨吞没形态还有不到 48 小时。

Bitcoin’s BTC monthly price chart is less than 48 hours away from completing a bullish engulfing pattern for the first time in more than 18 months.

比特币的 BTC 月度价格图表距离完成看涨吞没形态还有不到 48 小时，这是 18 个多月以来首次。

As it stands, BTC’s 1-month candle began on Sept. 11 at $44,663. Since then, Bitcoin has rallied to a high of $73,633 before a local pullback to $65,679.

目前来看，BTC 1 个月蜡烛图始于 9 月 11 日，价格为 44,663 美元。此后，比特币上涨至 73,633 美元的高点，然后局部回调至 65,679 美元。

Bitcoin 1-month price chart. Source: TradingView

比特币 1 个月价格图表。来源：TradingView

This recent price action, if sustained until the monthly candle close, would mark a strong bullish reversal from the lower price wick formed in August.

最近的价格走势如果持续到月度蜡烛图收盘，将标志着 8 月形成的较低价格灯芯的强劲看涨逆转。

Moreover, this 1-month engulfing pattern could also mark the local bear market bottom, considering that the last time this occurred was in January 2023, signaling the bear market low of 2022.

此外，考虑到上次发生这种情况是在 2023 年 1 月，这标志着 2022 年熊市低点，这一 1 个月吞没模式也可能标志着当地熊市底部。

Bitcoin OI retests $35B as funding rate stays flat

资金费率持平，比特币 OI 重新测试 $35B

After a local bottom at $52,150 on Sept. 6, Bitcoin’s parabolic uptrend entailed breaking past the prior lower-high pattern to facilitate a higher-high trend.

在 9 月 6 日触及 52,150 美元的局部底部后，比特币的抛物线上升趋势需要突破之前的较低高点模式，以促进更高高点的趋势。

In the meantime, Bitcoin open interest (OI) has increased rapidly, reaching as high as $35 billion on Sept. 27. This is on par with previous OI tops in 2024, witnessed during February and July 2024.

与此同时，比特币未平仓合约 (OI) 迅速增加，在 9 月 27 日达到 350 亿美元。这与 2024 年 2 月和 7 月见证的 2024 年 OI 之前的最高点持平。

Bitcoin funding rate and open interest chart. Source: Velo.data

比特币融资利率和未平仓合约图表。资料来源：Velo.data

While open interest indicates that the futures market remains heavily involved in dictating price movement, a comparatively flat funding rate indicates perpetual traders are still “indecisive.”

虽然未平仓合约表明期货市场仍然严重参与决定价格走势，但相对平坦的融资利率表明永续交易者仍然“犹豫不决”。

Adam, a popular independent trader, highlights this particular instance and points out another key factor of spot orderbook depth being skewed to the sell side.

Adam 是一位颇受欢迎的独立交易员，他强调了这一特殊情况，并指出了现货订单深度偏向卖方的另一个关键因素。

Bitcoin spot orderbook negative depth by Adam. Source: X.com

Adam 的比特币现货订单负深度。来源：X.com

In other words, spot traders are currently selling aggressively into $66K resistance.

换句话说，现货交易商目前正在向 6.6 万美元阻力位大举抛售。

Thus, BTC's chances of downside market volatility remain high in the coming week.

因此，未来一周比特币市场波动下行的可能性仍然很高。