比特币 (BTC) 回落至 9.7 万美元，MVRV 评分暗示 BTC 价格仍然便宜

在美联储表示 2025 年仅降息两次后，比特币 (BTC) 已从历史高点 108,427 美元回落至 97,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has had a strong performance this year as it jumped by 120%, beating popular assets like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 indices.

比特币 (BTC) 价格今年表现强劲，上涨了 120%，击败了纳斯达克 100 指数和标准普尔 500 指数等热门资产。

However, the coin took a beating this week after the Federal Reserve pointed to just two interest rate cuts in 2025.

然而，在美联储表示 2025 年仅降息两次后，本周比特币遭受重挫。

As a result, BTC price dropped to $97,000 from the all-time high of $108,427. At the same time, spot ETF flows showed that some investors believe that Bitcoin may have topped.

结果，BTC 价格从历史高点 108,427 美元跌至 97,000 美元。与此同时，现货 ETF 流量显示，一些投资者认为比特币可能已经见顶。

According to SoSoValue, these funds had net outflows of $276 million on Friday, a day after they shed $680 million in assets.

据 SoSoValue 称，这些基金在周五净流出 2.76 亿美元，而一天前它们就抛售了 6.8 亿美元的资产。

This happened as the MVRV score showed that Bitcoin price is still cheap even after moving to a record high last week.

发生这种情况的原因是 MVRV 分数显示，即使上周升至历史新高，比特币价格仍然便宜。

According to CoinGlass, the MVRV-Z score has dropped to 2.84 from last week’s high of 3.3. Historically, an MVRV-Z score figure below 3.7 is a sign that an asset is undervalued.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，MVRV-Z 得分已从上周的高点 3.3 降至 2.84。从历史上看，MVRV-Z 得分低于 3.7 表明资产被低估。

The MVRV-Z score is an important indicator that looks at the market value and the relative value of a coin. It is calculated by subtracting the realized market capitalization from the circulation market value and then dividing the figure by the standard deviation.

MVRV-Z 分数是衡量代币市场价值和相对价值的重要指标。计算方法是用流通市值减去已实现市值，然后除以标准差。

Bitcoin had an MVRV score of 3.03 in the last big correction in March this year, and 7 in the previous major correction in January 2021.

比特币在今年 3 月的上一次大调整中的 MVRV 得分为 3.03，在 2021 年 1 月的上一次大调整中，MVRV 得分为 7。

Therefore, this score is a sign that the coin could recover strongly in the next few weeks. As we wrote in a recent BTC forecast, the cup and handle pattern points to a rally to $122,000 in this bullish cycle.

因此，这一分数表明代币可能在未来几周内强劲复苏。正如我们在最近的 BTC 预测中所写，杯柄模式表明在这个看涨周期中将反弹至 122,000 美元。

BTC has other strong fundamentals

比特币还有其他强劲的基本面

The coin also has some strong fundamentals. As shown below, the number of Bitcoins in circulation has dropped to a multi-year low of 2.24 million. There were over 2.72 million coins in exchanges in September this year.

该代币还具有一些强大的基本面。如下图所示，流通中的比特币数量已降至多年来的最低点224万个。今年 9 月份，交易所中有超过 272 万枚代币。

That indicates that more investors are buying and storing Bitcoins in self-custody wallets. Some of these investors are those accumulating ETFs, which now have over $109 billion in assets. Companies like Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy have also continued to accumulate Bitcoins this year.

这表明越来越多的投资者正在购买比特币并将其存储在自我托管钱包中。其中一些投资者是那些积累 ETF 的投资者，这些投资者目前拥有超过 1090 亿美元的资产。 Marathon Digital 和 MicroStrategy 等公司今年也继续积累比特币。

MicroStrategy now holds over 439,000 coins.

MicroStrategy 目前持有超过 439,000 个代币。

The other potential catalyst for Bitcoin is that the stablecoin market cap has jumped to almost $210 billion, up from $122 billion a year earlier.

比特币的另一个潜在催化剂是稳定币市值已从一年前的 1220 亿美元跃升至近 2100 亿美元。

A rise in stablecoin value is usually a positive indication, underscoring how more investors are showing interest in cryptocurrencies.

稳定币价值的上涨通常是一个积极的迹象，突显出越来越多的投资者对加密货币表现出兴趣。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has continued falling, moving to 1.12% from the 2015 high of almost 12%. This inflation rate has fallen because of the halving events and the rising mining difficulty rate.

与此同时，比特币的年通胀率持续下降，从 2015 年近 12% 的高点降至 1.12%。由于减半事件和挖矿难度上升，通胀率有所下降。

Therefore, while more Bitcoin pullback is possible, there are signs that its favorable MVRV score and strong fundamentals will help to push it higher in the longer term.

因此，虽然比特币可能出现更多回调，但有迹象表明，其良好的 MVRV 评分和强劲的基本面将有助于在长期内推动其走高。