Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 6.57% rally over the past seven days. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently trading at $94,820, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 1.41%, and faces resistance at $95,000. Should it surpass that level, Bitcoin could easily hit $100,000 in May.
The digital asset has stopped trading in tandem with the stock market, and instead appears to be mirroring the price action of gold.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. Money Supply (M2) stands at $24.188 trillion, on a YTD total return percent change of 2.83%.
With money supply (M2) on the rise, Bitcoin, which, unlike traditional equities, has shown a resiliency to tariff risks, would have to rally by 5.46% from current prices in order to cross the $100,000 threshold.
Leading cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe recently noted how “Bitcoin’s value against Gold hasn’t even made an all-time high as of yet. That being said, the real bull on risk-on assets hasn’t really started. It’s approx. 30% away from the previous high in 2021. That’s a great perspective.”
Image Credit: Michael van de Poppe on X (formerly Twitter)
If we look at the historical performance of Bitcoin in the month of May, we can see that, on average, BTC has provided an average return of 7.94% in the month of May, and a median return of 3.17%.
If Bitcoin were to replicate its average performance, then we could see the cryptocurrency hit $102,273 by the end of May. However, if Bitcoin were to perform in-line with its median return, then we would not likely see BTC hit the $100,000 price point, and instead, it would reach a price of $97,826.
However, with capital continuing to flow into the cryptocurrency market, and investor sentiment improving on account of an ever-likelier detente in the trade war, the odds that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by May are higher than they appear.
