比特币 (BTC) 价格上涨：接下来是 65,000 美元还是 50,000 美元？

比特币（BTC）在经历短期波动导致价格下跌至 53,761 美元后，目前余额接近 60,000 美元

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced short-term fluctuations on March 15, leading to a price decline to $53,761. However, the coin recovered and was trading at $58,541 at the last check. This recent uptick raised discussions among analysts on whether a rise to $65,000 or a fall to $50,000 is next for the apex crypto.

3月15日，比特币（BTC）价格经历了短期波动，导致价格下跌至53,761美元。然而，该币后来反弹，最后一次检查时的交易价格为 58,541 美元。最近的上涨引发了分析师的讨论，关于顶级加密货币的下一步是上涨至 65,000 美元还是下跌至 50,000 美元。

Bitcoin price rose 1.5% in the last 24 hours, as revealed in data from MarketCap. At the time of writing, BTC was changing hands at $58,541. The coin’s market capitalization increased by 1.6% to reach $1.1 trillion, while the trading volume fell by 17% to reach $27 billion.

MarketCap 的数据显示，比特币价格在过去 24 小时内上涨了 1.5%。截至撰写本文时，BTC 易手价格为 58,541 美元。该币市值增长 1.6%，达到 1.1 万亿美元，而交易量下降 17%，达到 270 亿美元。

The latest price rally had a ripple effect across the market. Among the top cryptocurrencies, Binance coin (BNB) and XRP prices jumped 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, within 24 hours.

最近的价格上涨对整个市场产生了连锁反应。在顶级加密货币中，币安币 (BNB) 和 XRP 价格在 24 小时内分别上涨 1.3% 和 1.1%。

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, disclosed in a report that while the rally will be short, BTC could rise to $60,000. Thielen arrived at his prediction after conducting Bitcoin’s technical analysis, which showed a price range of between $55,000 and $56,000 forming a base. Given the medium-term technical damage, the founder foresees only a short-term tactical bullish countertrend rally. He added that Bitcoin could fall to a lower range at $50,000 after climbing towards $60,000.

10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 在一份报告中透露，虽然反弹会很短暂，但 BTC 可能会升至 60,000 美元。 Thielen 在进行比特币技术分析后得出了他的预测，该分析显示价格范围在 55,000 美元到 56,000 美元之间形成了基础。鉴于中期技术损害，创始人预计只会出现短期战术性看涨反趋势反弹。他补充说，比特币在攀升至 60,000 美元后可能会跌至 50,000 美元的较低区间。

Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, added to the projection, stating that seasonal trends have contributed to BTC’s bleak outlook. According to Lunde, the third quarter of 2024 has offered the lowest return for the digital asset. Lunde raised other issues including the ongoing distribution of Bitcoin by trustees of the now-defunct Mt.Gox exchange and the large token sell-off by German authorities.

K33 Research 高级分析师 Vetle Lunde 补充了这一预测，称季节性趋势导致了 BTC 前景黯淡。 Lunde 表示，2024 年第三季度的数字资产回报率最低。 Lunde 提出了其他问题，包括现已解散的 Mt.Gox 交易所的受托人持续分配比特币，以及德国当局大规模抛售代币。

As mentioned in our previous brief, the German government sold 282.74 BTC to the Bistamp exchange. Before this transaction, the government sold Bitcoin worth $55 million to Coinbase and Kraken exchanges as highlighted in our previous update. Note that these BTC were those seized from illegal activities. A government spokesperson said the government doesn’t hold onto cryptocurrency and sells them for euros upon conclusion of a related case.

正如我们之前的简报中提到的，德国政府向 Bistamp 交易所出售了 282.74 BTC。在此次交易之前，政府向 Coinbase 和 Kraken 交易所出售了价值 5500 万美元的比特币，正如我们之前的更新中所强调的那样。请注意，这些比特币是从非法活动中查获的。一位政府发言人表示，政府不会持有加密货币，而是在相关案件结束后将其出售以换取欧元。

As summarized in our earlier story, Mt.Gox transferred 137,890 BTC from its wallet to repay its creditors about $9.4 billion. This movement has increased the amount of BTC in circulation, leading to price declines for the cryptocurrency.

正如我们之前的报道中所总结的，Mt.Gox 从钱包中转移了 137,890 比特币，以偿还债权人约 94 亿美元。这一运动增加了比特币的流通量，导致加密货币的价格下跌。

Timeline for Bitcoin’s Absorption of Increasing Supply

比特币吸收供应增加的时间表

K33 Research estimated that it will take the market the whole of Summer to absorb 75,000 BTC ($4.3 billion) of sales from Saxony and 118,000 BTC ($6.8 billion) of sales from Mt.Gox customers.

K33 Research 预计，整个夏季市场将吸收萨克森州的 75,000 BTC（43 亿美元）销售额和 Mt.Gox 客户的 118,000 BTC（68 亿美元）销售额。

“We expect these flows to burden performance in the months to come and the choppy market conditions to last until October,” Lunde noted.

伦德指出：“我们预计这些资金流入将给未来几个月的业绩带来负担，而动荡的市场状况将持续到十月份。”

On the contrary, Skybridge’s Anthony Scaramucci has predicted a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2024. Investors should note that this prediction is not cast in stone as the crypto market is known to be volatile.

相反，Skybridge 的 Anthony Scaramucci 预测到 2024 年底，比特币的目标价格将达到 10 万美元。投资者应该注意，这一预测并不是一成不变的，因为众所周知，加密市场波动很大。

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