比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：Mt. Gox 效应的技术评论

Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示，近期加密货币市场表现不佳不仅是由于担心 Mt. Gox BTC 即将被分配，还有德国政府出售比特币的影响。

The price of Bitcoin has been falling for some days now, probably due to concerns regarding the imminent distribution of Mt. Gox’s BTC, dragging down the forecasts as well.

比特币的价格已经连续几天下跌，可能是由于对 Mt. Gox 的 BTC 即将分配的担忧，也拖累了预测。

Mt. Gox is a Japanese crypto exchange that went bankrupt in 2014. At the time, it was by far the leading one in the world.

Mt.Gox 是一家日本加密货币交易所，于 2014 年破产。当时，它是全球领先的加密货币交易所。

As of today, it still holds about 142,000 BTC, but it is about to return them to creditors, and in particular to the users of the exchange who had BTC on deposit with them at the time of the withdrawal shutdown.

截至今天，它仍然持有约 142,000 BTC，但即将将其返还给债权人，特别是在提款关闭时存有 BTC 的交易所用户。

According to the data from Arkham Intelligence, which monitors on-chain in real-time the movements of the known public addresses of Mt. Gox, several movements occurred today.

根据实时监控链上 Mt. Gox 已知公共地址动向的 Arkham Intelligence 的数据，今天发生了几起动向。

It should not be forgotten that currently the assets of Mt. Gox are managed by a Japanese bankruptcy trustee, and therefore they move during hours when it is daytime in Japan.

不应忘记的是，目前 Mt. Gox 的资产由日本破产受托人管理，因此它们会在日本白天的时间内移动。

In particular, last night a single movement of over 47,000 BTC was recorded, which scared the markets.

尤其是昨晚，BTC单次波动超过47,000个，令市场感到恐慌。

Just to have a benchmark, Grayscale’s ETF has never liquidated more than 16,000 BTC in a single day, so that single movement really scared the markets.

仅仅为了有一个基准，灰度的 ETF 从未在单日清算超过 16,000 BTC，因此单次波动确实让市场感到恐惧。

However, according to Arkham’s data, it was an internal movement between two addresses belonging to Mt. Gox, and in fact, the total BTC held by the failed exchange remained unchanged.

然而，根据 Arkham 的数据，这是属于 Mt.Gox 的两个地址之间的内部移动，事实上，失败的交易所持有的 BTC 总量保持不变。

However, other movements of thousands of BTC have been recorded, so it is believed that the bankruptcy trustee is preparing to return them to the creditors.

不过，还记录了数千枚比特币的其他动向，因此相信破产受托人正准备将其返还给债权人。

The BTC reimbursed

BTC已偿还

The question everyone is asking is: what will happen to all the Bitcoin that will be reimbursed to creditors by Mt. Gox?

每个人都在问的问题是：Mt. Gox 偿还给债权人的所有比特币会怎样？

It should be noted that many fewer will be returned than creditors had at the time of closure, but also that the current value in fiat currency of those that will be returned is higher compared to the fiat currency value at the time of closure of all those that users were found to have on deposit with them.

应该指出的是，返还的金额比债权人关闭时的金额要少得多，但与所有这些债权人关闭时的法定货币价值相比，将被返还的当前法定货币价值更高。发现用户有存款。

Furthermore, more than 10 years have passed, so many of those who were supposed to receive them in the meantime had stopped counting on it.

而且，十多年过去了，很多本来应该同时收到它们的人已经不再指望了。

Therefore, it is difficult to think that many of those who will receive those refunds will rush to sell Bitcoin at a price that appears low at this moment, and it is therefore imaginable that many of those BTC will be cashed in and not sold in the short term.

因此，很难想象许多将收到退款的人会急于以目前看来较低的价格出售比特币，因此可以想象，其中许多比特币将被兑现，而不是出售。短期。

Despite this, the crypto markets have struggled due to fears of the impact of these refunds on the price of BTC.

尽管如此，由于担心这些退款对比特币价格的影响，加密货币市场仍然举步维艰。

Bitcoin price predictions: the technical comment on the Mt. Gox effect

比特币价格预测：Mt. Gox 效应的技术评论

According to the chief analyst of Bitget Research, Ryan Lee, the recent underperformance of the crypto market is not only due to the fear of the imminent distribution of Mt. Gox BTC, but also due to the sale of Bitcoin by the German government.

Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示，近期加密货币市场表现不佳不仅是由于担心 Mt. Gox BTC 即将被分配，还有德国政府出售比特币的影响。

In fact, for a few days now Germany has been selling thousands of BTC seized in the past, and it seems they are doing it directly on the exchanges.

事实上，几天来德国一直在出售过去查获的数千枚比特币，而且他们似乎是直接在交易所出售的。

Generally, the sales of seized assets are conducted through specific auctions, or via OTC, and not on public markets. This time, however, the German authorities seem to have opted for this latter solution, which inevitably had an immediate negative impact on the price.

一般来说，被扣押资产的出售是通过专门拍卖或场外交易进行的，而不是在公开市场上进行。然而，这一次，德国当局似乎选择了后一种解决方案，这不可避免地对价格产生了直接的负面影响。

According to Lee, however, the macro-monetary policy is still evolving in line with expectations of a rate cut in the USA, with the probabilities of a first rate cut in September rising to 66.5% on the CME. Additionally, the Dollar Index has fallen to around 105 points.

不过，Lee表示，宏观货币政策仍在与美国降息预期保持一致，CME 9月首次降息的可能性上升至66.5%。此外，美元指数已跌至105点左右。

There are also other indicators that could influence the crypto market.

还有其他可能影响加密货币市场的指标。

For example, on the weekly chart Lee points out that Bitcoin is about to reach the lower limit of the Bollinger bands.

例如，李在周线图上指出，比特币即将触及布林带的下限。

Historically, during bull markets, reaching this level has marked a significant bottom, followed by a consolidation period of 5 to 7 weeks around the lower limit before the start of a new bull trend. In the 2017 bull market, BTC even underwent six corrections greater than 30%.

从历史上看，在牛市期间，达到这一水平就标志着一个重要的底部，随后在新的牛市趋势开始之前，会在下限附近进行为期 5 至 7 周的盘整期。在2017年的牛市中，BTC甚至经历了六次超过30%的回调。

Furthermore, the current price has fallen below the mining costs for some miners, and this could change their buying and selling behavior of their BTC. According to Lee, miners are now more likely not to sell their BTC, rather than sell them off, and this could reduce the potential selling pressure.

此外，目前的价格已经低于一些矿工的挖矿成本，这可能会改变他们的比特币买卖行为。 Lee 表示，矿商现在更有可能不出售比特币，而不是卖掉它们，这可能会减少潜在的抛售压力。

The expected events in autumn

秋季预计发生的事件

So in September, or later in November, the Fed should start reducing interest rates, and this could increase liquidity in the markets.

因此，在 9 月或 11 月晚些时候，美联储应该开始降息，这可能会增加市场的流动性。

Furthermore, the presidential elections will be held in the USA, after which the dollar could start to weaken, further aiding Bitcoin.

此外，美国将举行总统选举，之后美元可能开始走软，进一步利好比特币。

If in the short term no positive signals are seen for Bitcoin, already in the medium/short term some timid signals are beginning to be seen that the decline could be destined to stop.

如果短期内没有看到比特币的积极信号，那么中短期内已经开始出现一些胆怯的信号，表明下跌可能注定会停止。

In the medium term, positive signals should arrive

从中期来看，积极信号应该会到来