比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：九月通常会很疯狂——本月会发生什么

九月对于比特币来说通常是一段疯狂的旅程。自 2013 年以来，这个月在交易者中赢得了“Rektember”的绰号。为什么？平均而言，9月份比特币的回报率为-4.78%。

September is here, and it brings with it a unique set of challenges and opportunities in the world of Bitcoin. Here's a closer look at some of the key trends and data points to watch this month:

九月已经到来，它给比特币世界带来了一系列独特的挑战和机遇。以下是本月值得关注的一些主要趋势和数据点的详细分析：

1. September Blues: Historically, September has not been kind to Bitcoin. Since 2013, this month has earned the nickname "Rektember" among traders due to its poor performance. On average, Bitcoin's return in September is a negative 4.78%. And it gets worse: there's usually a peak-to-trough drop of around 24.6%.

1. 九月忧郁：从历史上看，九月对比特币来说并不好。自2013年以来，由于表现不佳，这个月在交易者中赢得了“Rektember”的绰号。平均来看，9月份比特币的回报率为负4.78%。而且情况会变得更糟：从峰谷到谷底的跌幅通常约为 24.6%。

2. Cashing Out Profits: In August, traders cashed out around $4.251 billion in profits from their Bitcoin trades. That's a big chunk of change, and it's putting some selling pressure on the cryptocurrency.

2.套现利润：8月份，交易者从比特币交易中套现了约42.51亿美元的利润。这是一个很大的变化，它给加密货币带来了一些抛售压力。

3. Whales Holding Back: One interesting trend is the drop in big-money moves. Transactions over $100,000—typically involving whales—are at their lowest in nearly four years. Usually, when the whales are quiet, it means they're holding onto their Bitcoin, possibly expecting the price to go up. Less whale activity can sometimes mean less volatility.

3.鲸鱼的退缩：一个有趣的趋势是大笔资金流动的减少。超过 10 万美元的交易（通常涉及鲸鱼）处于近四年来的最低水平。通常，当鲸鱼安静时，这意味着他们持有比特币，可能预计价格会上涨。鲸鱼活动减少有时意味着波动性减少。

4. Bitcoin Might Be Undervalued: Looking at the MVRV, Bitcoin might be undervalued right now. On both 7-day and 30-day timeframes, the numbers tell us there's room for price growth if demand picks up.

4. 比特币可能被低估：从 MVRV 来看，比特币目前可能被低估。在 7 天和 30 天的时间范围内，这些数字告诉我们，如果需求回升，价格还有上涨的空间。

5. Analysts Predict a Drop: Not everyone is optimistic, though. Analysts from Bitfinex are throwing some cold water on any bullish dreams. They predict Bitcoin could fall to the $40,000 range this month if the Federal Reserve goes ahead with rate cuts. They're talking about a potential 15-20% drop from current levels. Historically, rate cuts have led to price dips before any recovery.

5. 分析师预测会下降：不过，并非所有人都持乐观态度。 Bitfinex 的分析师给任何看涨的梦想泼了一盆冷水。他们预测，如果美联储继续降息，比特币本月可能跌至 40,000 美元区间。他们正在谈论可能比当前水平下降 15-20%。从历史上看，降息会导致价格在复苏之前下跌。

6. Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Drops: On the supply side, things are getting interesting. The amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges is now at its lowest level since December 2018.

6. 交易所的比特币供应量下降：在供应方面，事情变得越来越有趣。交易所可用的比特币数量目前处于 2018 年 12 月以来的最低水平。

7. Active Addresses Signal Bear Market: And then there's the metric of active addresses, which tells us how many wallets are currently in use. This number has dropped sharply, similar to what we saw in the 2017 and 2021 bear markets. But unlike those times, Bitcoin's price isn't crashing. Long-term holders are showing resilience, which could help support the price.

7. 活跃地址信号熊市：然后是活跃地址的指标，它告诉我们当前有多少钱包正在使用。这个数字急剧下降，类似于我们在 2017 年和 2021 年熊市中看到的情况。但与那些时期不同的是，比特币的价格并没有暴跌。长期持有者表现出韧性，这可能有助于支撑价格。

8. Long-Term Holders Step Up: Speaking of long-term holders, they've been accumulating Bitcoin at a steady pace. According to CryptoQuant, these holders have increased their Bitcoin supply by 262,000 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing their total holdings to 14.82 million BTC. That's 75% of the total supply.

8.长期持有者的崛起：说到长期持有者，他们一直在稳步积累比特币。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，这些持有者在过去 30 天内增加了 262,000 BTC 的比特币供应量，使其总持有量达到 1,482 万 BTC。占总供应量的 75%。

9. Top Bitcoin Wallets Remain Inactive: Finally, many top anonymous Bitcoin wallets, which hold large amounts of BTC, remain inactive. Seven of the top 10 wallets, holding a total of 237,816 BTC (worth about $14.04 billion), haven't moved in over two years.

9. 顶级比特币钱包仍然不活跃：最后，许多持有大量比特币的顶级匿名比特币钱包仍然不活跃。排名前 10 的钱包中有 7 个持有总计 237,816 BTC（价值约 140.4 亿美元），但两年多没有搬迁。