2024-25 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

比特币 [BTC] 在两天内两次遭遇短期区间高点 5.88 万美元的拒绝。上周失去 6 万美元心理支撑后

Bitcoin [BTC] dropped below the crucial psychological support of $60,000 last week and faced two days of rejection from the short-term range highs at $58.8k.

比特币 [BTC] 上周跌破了 60,000 美元的关键心理支撑位，并在 58,800 美元的短期区间高点遭遇两天的拒绝。

The market sentiment was fearful after the losses and traders were left wondering whether BTC will finally begin to rebound or if there is more pain to come.

损失发生后，市场情绪令人恐惧，交易员们想知道比特币是否最终会开始反弹，或者是否还会有更多痛苦。

At press time, a rising accumulation trend score signaled that buyers were willing, but other metrics implied the latter.

截至发稿时，不断上升的积累趋势分数表明买家愿意，但其他指标暗示后者。

Crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted the current average losses of short-term holders (STHs) in a post on X.

加密货币分析师 Axel Adler 在 X 上的一篇文章中强调了短期持有者 (STH) 目前的平均损失。

While the losses matched that of June 2023, the magnitude was far lower than the pain seen in 2021 or 22.

虽然损失与 2023 年 6 月的损失相当，但其严重程度远低于 2021 年或 22 年的痛苦。

It signaled a potential local bottom, but also showed that traders and investors must be prepared for the worst-case scenario of a steeper price drop on the charts.

它预示着潜在的局部底部，但也表明交易者和投资者必须为图表上价格大幅下跌的最坏情况做好准备。

Clues that Bitcoin’s local lows are behind us

比特币局部低点已经过去的线索

CryptoQuant observed that the trader realized profit/loss margin was at -17%.

CryptoQuant 观察到，交易者实现的利润/亏损率为 -17%。

This was in the same ballpark as the market bottoms over the past two years, reinforcing the idea that BTC is more likely to rebound higher than to drop lower.

这与过去两年市场触底的情况大致相同，这强化了比特币更有可能反弹而不是下跌的观点。

According to Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju, whales tend to use leverage at their cyclical bottoms, making the markets over-leveraged and forcing another downward price flush.

CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，鲸鱼往往在周期性底部使用杠杆，导致市场过度杠杆化，迫使价格再次下跌。

At press time, whales were not over-leveraged, which could have set the stage for a deeper correction below the $50k-mark.

截至发稿时，鲸鱼杠杆并未过度，这可能为进一步回调至 5 万美元大关以下奠定基础。

Traders were humbled after trying to catch the breakout and ATH

交易者在试图抓住突破和 ATH 后感到谦卑

From the final week of May to the 3 July, the estimated leverage ratio on exchanges rose quickly.

从5月最后一周到7月3日，交易所预估杠杆率快速上升。

During that time, the price of Bitcoin was hovering around $67k-$69k.

在此期间，比特币的价格徘徊在 67,000 美元至 69,000 美元之间。

As the price fell below $66k, the leverage ratio climbed once more, indicating that traders were trying to time the bottom out of greed.

随着价格跌破 66,000 美元，杠杆率再次攀升，表明交易者出于贪婪而试图寻找触底时机。

Over the past week, their hopes were quelled by BTC’s sustained descent. The leverage ratio also fell lower, which could be healthy for the market.

过去一周，他们的希望因比特币的持续下跌而破灭。杠杆率也下降，这可能对市场有利。

Overall, it is hard to say with certainty that Bitcoin has formed a bottom.

总体而言，很难肯定地说比特币已经形成底部。

Several bottom signals have been flashing and seller pressure might begin to drop. Even so, investors should still have a plan of action in case the price falls below $50k.

一些底部信号已经闪现，卖家压力可能开始下降。即便如此，投资者仍应制定行动计划，以防价格跌至 5 万美元以下。