2024 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：涨势会持续至 8.5 万美元水平吗？

在交易所交易基金获得批准后不久，比特币 (BTC) 将在 2024 年初经历快速反弹。

Bitcoin price surprising everyone with a new ATH in March

比特币价格在 3 月份创下新的 ATH，令所有人惊讶

Bitcoin price has reached a new all-time high on March 5th, surpassing the previous highs recorded in 2021. While the difference between the two all-time highs is not particularly large, it did send ripples through the crypto community, especially since this event was not expected until after the halving.

比特币价格在 3 月 5 日创下历史新高，超过了 2021 年创下的历史新高。虽然两个历史高点之间的差异并不是特别大，但它确实在加密社区中引起了涟漪，特别是自这一事件以来预计直到减半之后。

However, despite these upward trends, mining stocks have traded relatively flat, dipping by around 30%. There was a similar event in 2023, though, and at the time, investors saw it as an opportunity to buy the stocks they needed at a discount.

然而，尽管有这些上升趋势，矿业股的交易却相对平淡，下跌了 30% 左右。不过，2023 年也发生过类似事件，当时投资者将其视为以折扣价购买所需股票的机会。

There are several reasons why this is believed to occur. One is that it is the direct result of investors' misplaced weariness and that investors should follow the same patterns and acquire cheaper stocks. Some investors and analysts believe that the combination of the high BTC price and the low stocks could be a sign that Bitcoin and the ETFs could experience trouble in the future. The market frothiness past $65K caused many to keep their distance as well.

人们认为发生这种情况有几个原因。一是这是投资者过度疲倦的直接结果，投资者应该遵循同样的模式并购买更便宜的股票。一些投资者和分析师认为，比特币的高价格和低库存的结合可能表明比特币和 ETF 未来可能会遇到麻烦。超过 65,000 美元的市场泡沫也导致许多人保持距离。

It’s also possible that investors don’t see the move of getting capital into mining stock as profitable ahead of the reward-slashing halving.

投资者也可能不认为在奖励减半之前将资金投入矿业股票的举措有利可图。

High-cost miners might be forced to move offshore

高成本矿商可能被迫迁往海外

The behavior of the market ahead of the next halving event has also been thoroughly analyzed. There are many scenarios of what could happen, with the most likely being that some miners might be forced to move their processes off-shore. If the halving doesn’t yield as much profit as market participants expect, many of the facilities in the United States will have to find areas with lower costs that are more profitable. Otherwise, the investors might become discontent with the fees and rates when the companies don’t yield sufficient returns.

下一次减半事件之前的市场行为也得到了彻底分析。可能发生的情况有很多种，最有可能的是一些矿工可能被迫将其流程转移到海外。如果减半不能产生市场参与者预期的那么多利润，美国的许多设施将不得不寻找成本更低、利润更高的地区。否则，当公司没有产生足够的回报时，投资者可能会对费用和费率感到不满。

One of the proposed countries for the off-shore is Ethiopia. The nation generates most of its power from renewable sources. This is a good thing for the crypto environment that has been repeatedly accused of having an unreasonably high carbon footprint, sometimes consuming as much as some medium-sized countries. Kenya is another possible destination for American crypto mining. Similar to Ethiopia, Kenya gets 91% of its energy from green sources, with geothermal and hydropower being the favorites, followed closely by wind- and solar-generated electricity.

拟议的离岸国家之一是埃塞俄比亚。该国大部分电力来自可再生能源。这对于加密货币环境来说是一件好事，加密货币环境一再被指责具有不合理的高碳足迹，有时消耗的碳足迹与一些中等国家一样多。肯尼亚是美国加密货币挖矿的另一个可能目的地。与埃塞俄比亚类似，肯尼亚 91% 的能源来自绿色能源，其中地热能和水力发电最受欢迎，其次是风能和太阳能发电。

Argentina and Paraguay could also become destinations for miners unless they yield considerable profits. The former is particularly well-known for its crypto community, with many people using digital currencies in order to escape the hyperinflation of their local fiat.

阿根廷和巴拉圭也可能成为矿商的目的地，除非它们能产生可观的利润。前者以其加密货币社区而闻名，许多人使用数字货币来逃避当地法定货币的恶性通货膨胀。

L2 tokens continue to rally as Bitcoin price soars

随着比特币价格飙升，L2代币继续上涨

Bitcoin price fluctuations affect the entire marketplace. When the king of crypto is doing well, the whole market prospers, and when it reaches a downside trend, the entire marketplace follows along. As Bitcoin reached the highest levels recorded in twenty-five months, layer-2 tokens surged as well. STX and RIF are some of the most notable examples, recording double-digit gains as part of the ongoing rally. Stacks, in particular, had some of the largest engagement rates over the last year of all digital assets.

比特币价格波动影响整个市场。当加密货币之王表现良好时，整个市场就会繁荣，而当它出现下行趋势时，整个市场也会跟随。随着比特币达到二十五个月来的最高水平，第二层代币也飙升。 STX 和 RIF 是最引人注目的例子，在持续上涨的过程中，它们录得两位数的涨幅。尤其是 Stacks，去年在所有数字资产中的参与率最高。

The smart contract platform is focused on Bitcoin and went up 30% on February 27th. During the span of thirty days, the token essentially doubled in price. Social interaction levels have gone up by an astonishing 16,000. The excitement is naturally driven by the excitement of seeing the market grow so fast. Rootstock Infrastructure Framework is built on the Rootstock blockchain. This means that the smart contract capabilities are brought directly to Bitcoin. The platform also allows DApps.

该智能合约平台专注于比特币，2 月 27 日上涨了 30%。在三十天内，代币的价格基本上翻了一番。社交互动水平惊人地上升了 16,000。这种兴奋自然是由看到市场增长如此之快的兴奋所驱动的。 Rootstock 基础设施框架构建在 Rootstock 区块链之上。这意味着智能合约功能直接引入比特币。该平台还允许 DApp。

Roughly $161 million of rootstock’s total value is locked on the BTC sidechains. This is approximately half of the asset’s value. In Stacks’ case, 43% is locked, or $138 million. Other native tokens have done well as well, seeing average increase rates of 20%. BRC-20 tokens, including Multibit, MEME, Pepe, INSC and TRAC surged as well.

大约 1.61 亿美元的 rootstock 总价值被锁定在 BTC 侧链上。这大约是资产价值的一半。在 Stacks 的案例中，43% 被锁定，即 1.38 亿美元。其他原生代币也表现出色，平均增长率为 20%。 BRC-20 代币，包括 Multibit、MEME、Pepe、INSC 和 TRAC 也大幅上涨。

Mining difficulty surpasses 80T as hash rate climbs

算力攀升，挖矿难度突破80T

As of late February, the mining difficulty level surpassed 80 trillion. The metric shows how challenging it is to solve one of the cryptographic puzzles necessary to mint new coins or confirm transactions. These astounding figures are seen as being part of the market moves and changes which anticipate the arrival of the next halving event. The hash rate has exceeded 560 hashes per second.

截至2月下旬，挖矿难度突破80万亿。该指标显示了解决铸造新币或确认交易所需的加密难题之一是多么具有挑战性。这些令人震惊的数字被视为市场走势和变化的一部分，预示着下一次减半事件的到来。哈希率已超过每秒 560 次哈希。

The investors who had kept an eye on this part of the market aren’t surprised, as the levels have been steadily growing since January 2023. Over the next few months, the difficulty is expected to climb steadily and eventually land on the 100 trillion mark. In the aftermath of the halving, rewards will be cut in half. It remains to be seen how the market will develop in the aftermath of that particular event

一直关注这部分市场的投资者并不感到惊讶，因为自 2023 年 1 月以来，这一水平一直在稳步增长。未来几个月，预计难度将稳步攀升，最终登陆 100 万亿大关。减半后，奖励将减少一半。该特定事件之后市场将如何发展仍有待观察