比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：BTC 会跌至 80,000 美元吗？

尽管比特币 (BTC) 仍处于区间波动 — — 价格水平在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间交易 — — 一些加密货币分析师预测价格调整

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating within a broad range between $90,000 and $100,000 for the past few weeks. However, some crypto analysts believe that a bearish ‘head and shoulders’ pattern on the daily chart may indicate a looming price correction.

过去几周，比特币 (BTC) 价格一直在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间的广泛区间内盘整。然而，一些加密货币分析师认为，日线图上看跌的“头肩”形态可能预示着即将出现的价格调整。

Bitcoin price could drop to $80K?

比特币价格可能跌至8万美元？

Seasoned analyst and trader Aksel Kibar shared his analysis of the recent BTC price action on TradingView. In his post, the chartered market technician highlighted a potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily BTC chart, with risk of the cryptocurrency dropping as low as $80,000.

经验丰富的分析师和交易员 Aksel Kibar 在 TradingView 上分享了他对近期 BTC 价格走势的分析。在他的帖子中，这位特许市场技术人员强调了 BTC 日线图上可能形成的头肩形态，该加密货币的风险跌至 80,000 美元。

Kibar explained that the pullback could push BTC’s price to the broadening pattern that completed with a breakout above $73,600. However, he noted that the head and shoulders pattern must fully materialize for a significant pullback in BTC price to occur. He stated:

Kibar 解释说，回调可能会将 BTC 的价格推向扩大形态，最终突破 73,600 美元。然而，他指出，头肩形态必须完全实现，比特币价格才会出现大幅回调。他说：

Seeing it is not enough. It needs to materialize with a breach below the neckline. There are many cases of failed head and shoulders tops especially in steady uptrends well above the year-long average.

光看还不够。它需要在领口以下出现突破才能实现。有很多头肩顶失败的案例，尤其是在远高于全年平均水平的稳定上升趋势中。

Other crypto analysts have also shared similar bearish outlooks for Bitcoin’s price. For instance, technical analyst Ali Martinez identified $92,730 as a crucial price level for the top cryptocurrency. According to Martinez, losing this level could push BTC into “free fall territory,” based on UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD).

其他加密货币分析师也对比特币价格持类似的悲观前景。例如，技术分析师 Ali Martinez 认为 92,730 美元是顶级加密货币的关键价格水平。根据 Martinez 的说法，根据 UTXO 已实现价格分布（URPD），失去这一水平可能会将 BTC 推向“自由落体区域”。

For the uninitiated, URPD is a metric that shows the distribution of Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) across various price levels, based on when they were last moved. Essentially, it helps identify price zones where significant BTC accumulation or spending occurred, providing insights into investor behavior and market sentiment.

对于外行来说，URPD 是一个指标，显示比特币未花费交易输出（UTXO）在不同价格水平上的分布情况，基于它们最后一次移动的时间。从本质上讲，它有助于识别发生大量比特币积累或支出的价格区域，从而提供对投资者行为和市场情绪的洞察。

Moreover, former Wall Street derivatives trader Tone Vays warned that BTC trading below the $95,000 price level would be “very, very bad” for the flagship digital asset. Similarly, renowned trader Peter Brandt recently highlighted the risk of BTC breaking down from a ‘broadening triangle’ formation, potentially falling to the $70,000 level.

此外，前华尔街衍生品交易员 Tone Vays 警告称，比特币交易价格低于 95,000 美元对于这一旗舰数字资产来说“非常非常糟糕”。同样，著名交易员 Peter Brandt 最近强调了 BTC 突破“扩大三角形”形态的风险，可能跌至 70,000 美元的水平。

While several analysts predict a potential price correction, others remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Capital projected that BTC could surge as high as $250,000 by 2025. However, he acknowledged the possibility of a short-term correction to $60,000 early next year before Bitcoin enters a historic bull run.

尽管一些分析师预测价格可能会出现调整，但其他分析师仍然对比特币的长期轨迹持乐观态度。 Fundstrat Capital 的托马斯·李 (Thomas Lee) 预计，到 2025 年，比特币可能会飙升至 25 万美元。不过，他也承认，在比特币进入历史性牛市之前，明年初比特币可能会短期回调至 6 万美元。

The Long-Term Bullish Case For BTC

比特币的长期看涨理由

While BTC may indeed face a looming price correction according to some analysts, the long-term price projections remain overwhelmingly bullish. Crypto asset manager Sygnum posits that BTC may face ‘demand shocks’ due to strong institutional interest in the asset, driving its price significantly higher.

尽管一些分析师认为，比特币确实可能面临迫在眉睫的价格调整，但长期价格预测仍然极其看涨。加密资产管理公司 Sygnum 认为，由于机构对该资产的浓厚兴趣，比特币可能面临“需求冲击”，从而推动其价格大幅上涨。

Earlier this month, Ali Martinez highlighted the potential formation of a ‘cup and handle’ pattern on BTC’s chart. If this pattern plays out, it could trigger renewed bullish momentum for the digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $94,149, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours.

本月早些时候，阿里·马丁内斯强调了比特币图表上可能形成“杯柄”模式。如果这种模式出现，可能会引发数字资产新的看涨势头。截至发稿，BTC 交易价格为 94,149 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 2.5%。