比特币（BTC）价格下跌7％，清算1.58亿美元

比特币（BTC）下跌7％的价格从3月26日的88060美元下跌至3月29日的82036美元，并导致了1.58亿美元的长期清算。

Bitcoin's (BTC) 7% decline saw the price drop from $88,060 on March 26 to $82,036 on March 29 and led to $158 million in long liquidations. This drop was particularly concerning for bulls, as gold surged to a record high at the same time, undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.

比特币（BTC）下跌7％的价格从3月26日的88,060美元下降到3月29日的82,036美元，并导致了1.58亿美元的长期清算。对于公牛队来说，这种下降尤其令人担忧，因为黄金同时飙升至创纪录的高位，这破坏了比特币的“数字黄金”叙事。

However, many experts argue that a Bitcoin rally is imminent as multiple governments take steps to avert an economic crisis.

但是，许多专家认为，由于多个政府采取步骤避免经济危机，比特币集会即将出现。

The ongoing global trade war and spending cuts by the US government are considered temporary setbacks. An apparent silver lining is the expectation that additional liquidity is expected to flow into the markets, which could boost risk-on assets. Analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from this broader macroeconomic shift.

美国政府正在进行的全球贸易战和支出削减被认为是暂时的挫折。明显的一线希望是预计有望额外的流动性流入市场，这可能会增加风险资产。分析师认为，比特币的位置良好，可以从这种更广泛的宏观经济转变中受益。

Take, for example, Mihaimihale, an X social platform user who argued that tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to “kickstart” the economy, particularly since the previous year’s growth was “propped up” by government spending, which proved unsustainable.

以X社会平台用户Mihaimihale为例，他认为削减税收和较低的利率是“启动”经济的必要条件，尤其是自从上一年的增长被政府支出“支持”以来，事实证明这是不可持续的。

The less favorable macroeconomic environment pushed gold to a record high of $3,087 on March 28, while the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY Index dropping to 104 from 107.40 a month earlier.

3月28日，宏观经济环境不太有利的宏观经济环境将黄金推向了创纪录的3,087美元，而美元对一篮子外币却削弱了，DXY指数从一个月前的107.40下降到104。

Additionally, the $93 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 28 further weighed on sentiment, as traders acknowledged that even institutional investors are susceptible to selling amid rising recession risks.

此外，3月28日，来自现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的9300万美元的净流出进一步承受了情绪，因为交易者承认，即使是机构投资者也很容易出售衰退风险的上升。

US inflation slows amid economic recession fears

在经济衰退的恐惧中，美国通货膨胀率放缓

The market currently assigns a 50% probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4% or lower by July 30, up from 46% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

根据CME FedWatch工具，该市场目前分配了50％的概率，即到7月30日，美国美联储将利率降低到4％或降低，高于一个月前的46％。

Implied rates for Fed Funds on July 30. Source: CME FedWatch

7月30日，美联储资金的隐含费率。资料来源：CME FedWatch

The crypto market is presently in a “withdrawal phase,” according to Alexandre Vasarhelyi, the founding partner at B2V Crypto. Vasarhelyi noted that recent major announcements, such as the US strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order mark progress in the metric that matters the most: adoption.

B2V Crypto的创始合作伙伴Alexandre Vasarhelyi表示，加密货币市场目前处于“退出阶段”。 Vasarhelyi指出，最近的主要公告，例如美国战略比特币储备金执行订单Mark Mark Mark Mark在指标中最重要的是：采用。

RWA tokenization is a promising trend, but its impact remains limited. “BlackRock’s billion-dollar BUIDL fund is a step forward, but it’s insignificant compared to the $100 trillion bond market.”

RWA令牌化是一个有希望的趋势，但其影响仍然有限。 “贝莱德（BlackRock）十亿美元的Buidl基金是向前迈出的一步，但与100万亿美元的债券市场相比，它微不足道。”

Gold decouples from stocks, bonds and Bitcoin

股票，债券和比特币的金牌

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

经验丰富的贸易商将10％的股票市场更正视为常规。但是，有些人预计到4月初，“政策不确定性”会下降，这将降低衰退或熊市的可能性。

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

经验丰富的贸易商将10％的股票市场更正视为常规。但是，有些人预计到4月初，“政策不确定性”会下降，这将降低衰退或熊市的可能性。

According to Benzinga, citing 3F Research founder Warren Pies, the US administration is expected to soften its stance on tariffs, which may help stabilize investor sentiment.

据本辛加（Benzinga）援引3F研究创始人沃伦·派（Warren Pies）的说法，预计美国政府将软化其对关税的立场，这可能有助于稳定投资者的情绪。

This shift may help the S&P 500 stay above its March 13 low of 5,055, although market volatility is expected to persist as economic conditions continue to evolve.

这种转变可能会帮助标准普尔500指数保持在3月13日低至5,055的低位，尽管随着经济状况的不断发展，市场波动预计将持续存在。

For some, the fact that gold decoupled from the stock market while Bitcoin succumbed to “extreme fear” is evidence that the digital gold thesis was flawed.

对于某些人来说，黄金与股票市场解耦的事实，而比特币屈服于“极端恐惧”，这证明了数字黄金论文存在缺陷。

However, more experienced investors, including Vasarhelyi, argue that Bitcoin’s weak performance reflects its early-stage adoption rather than a failure of its fundamental qualities.

但是，包括Vasarhelyi在内的经验丰富的投资者认为，比特币的弱势绩效反映了其早期采用，而不是其基本品质的失败。

“We’re still in the early stages of Bitcoin adoption. It’s not surprising to see some weakness in the face of broader market volatility,” Vasarhelyi remarked.

Vasarhelyi说：“我们仍处于比特币采用的早期阶段。面对更广泛的市场波动，看到一些弱点也就不足为奇了。”

According to Benzinga, analysts view the recent Bitcoin correction as a reaction to recession fears and the temporary tariff war.

根据本辛加（Benzinga）的说法，分析师将最近的比特币纠正视为对衰退的恐惧和临时关税战争的反应。

However, they anticipate that these factors will trigger expansionist measures from central banks, ultimately creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin.

但是，他们预计这些因素将引发中央银行的扩张主义措施，最终为包括比特币在内的风险资产创造一个有利的环境。