链上数据显示，比特币（BTC）价格可能已触底

根据 Glassnode 最近的一份报告，比特币触及近期低点，接近“活跃投资者”的成本基础。

On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price bottom may be due to a key investor cost basis level being hit, according to a report by Glassnode.

Glassnode 的一份报告称，链上数据表明，比特币最近的价格触底可能是由于关键的投资者成本基础水平受到打击。

To understand this important level, we need to look at two key indicators: the Realized Price and Liveliness.

要了解这一重要水平，我们需要查看两个关键指标：已实现价格和活跃度。

The Realized Price represents the average acquisition price of all investors in the Bitcoin network. This metric calculates the cost basis by analyzing the transaction history of each Bitcoin in circulation to determine the last price at which it moved. The assumption is that the previous transfer was the last time the coin changed hands, and so, its price at that time reflects its current cost basis. This value is then averaged across the entire supply, providing a measure often considered Bitcoin’s “fair value.”

已实现价格代表比特币网络中所有投资者的平均收购价格。该指标通过分析流通中的每个比特币的交易历史来计算成本基础，以确定其移动的最后价格。假设之前的转移是代币最后一次转手，因此当时的价格反映了其当前的成本基础。然后将该值在整个供应量中取平均值，提供通常被认为是比特币“公允价值”的衡量标准。

Liveliness, the second indicator, monitors the spending and holding behavior of investors. This metric uses the concept of “coin days,” which accumulate as 1 BTC stays dormant on the blockchain for a single day. When holding occurs, new coin days are created each day, while spending destroys previously accumulated coin days. Liveliness measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to those created throughout Bitcoin’s history. When the market predominantly holds, the metric leans towards zero; it tends towards one when distribution is high.

第二个指标“活跃度”监测投资者的支出和持有行为。该指标使用“币天”的概念，即 1 BTC 在区块链上保持休眠状态一天时累积。当持有发生时，每天都会创建新的硬币天数，而支出会破坏以前积累的硬币天数。活跃度衡量的是比特币历史上销毁的币天数与创造的币天数的比率。当市场占主导地位时，该指标倾向于零；当分布较高时，它趋向于 1。

The primary indicator in focus here is the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, also known as the Active Investor’s Cost Basis. This ratio adds a weighting factor to Bitcoin’s Realized Price using Liveliness. The fair value of Bitcoin is estimated higher when holding is dominant and lower when distribution is occurring.

这里关注的主要指标是已实现的价格与活力比率，也称为活跃投资者的成本基础。该比率使用活力为比特币的实际价格增加了一个权重因子。当持有占主导地位时，比特币的公允价值估计较高，而当发生分配时，其公允价值估计较低。

A recent chart from Glassnode reveals the trend of this ratio over the past decade. The Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio currently stands at $51,300. In the recent market crash, Bitcoin found a bottom close to this value.

Glassnode 最近的一张图表揭示了过去十年这一比率的趋势。目前已实现的房价与活力比率为 51,300 美元。在最近的市场崩盘中，比特币找到了接近该值的底部。

Glassnode noted, “The Active Investor’s Cost-Basis can be considered a key threshold delineating bullish and bearish investor sentiment. That the market found support near this level indicates underlying strength, suggesting investors generally remain optimistic about positive market momentum in the short-to-medium term.”

Glassnode 指出，“活跃投资者的成本基础可以被视为描绘看涨和看跌投资者情绪的关键门槛。市场在该水平附近找到支撑表明了潜在的强势，这表明投资者普遍对中短期的积极市场势头保持乐观。”

Bitcoin has seen a nearly 4% increase in the last 24 hours, pushing its price above $61,000, indicating a possible rebound after the recent dip.

比特币在过去 24 小时内上涨了近 4%，将其价格推升至 61,000 美元以上，表明近期下跌后可能出现反弹。