比特币（BTC）价格分析：威科夫方法定义了积累或再分配场景，会是哪一种？

比特币在 2025 年伊始就站稳了脚跟，一周内飙升了 3.50% 以上。 1 月 2 日期权合约到期后，比特币价格见证了购买热潮并达到 9.8 万美元大关。

Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note with a gain of over 3.50% in a week. Following its options contract expiry on January 2, the BTC price saw buying and reached the $98k mark.

比特币价格本周开局积极，一周内涨幅超过 3.50%。 1 月 2 日期权合约到期后，BTC 价格出现买盘并达到 9.8 万美元大关。

However, recent trading patterns hinted at potential scenarios of either accumulation or redistribution. The Wyckoff method defined the same, shaping the market perspective significantly.

然而，最近的交易模式暗示了积累或重新分配的潜在情况。威科夫方法也做出了同样的定义，极大地塑造了市场前景。

At press time, the BTC price trades at $98,366 with an intraday rise of 0.78%. The fear and greed index has a reading of 72, which denotes ‘greed’ among investors. Typically, such a scenario represents that investors are optimistic and confident. This could further fuel rallies ahead.

截至发稿，BTC价格报98,366美元，盘中上涨0.78%。恐惧和贪婪指数的读数为72，这表明投资者的“贪婪”。通常，这种情况代表投资者乐观且充满信心。这可能会进一步推动未来的反弹。

Following a retracement below the $100,000k mark, the BTC price took multiple retests around the $94,000k mark. Moreover, the token consolidated in a narrow range, indicating accumulation.

在回撤至 100,000,000 美元大关之后，BTC 价格在 94,000,000 美元大关附近进行了多次重新测试。此外，该代币窄幅盘整，表明有积累。

The ‘Spring’ and ‘Test’ stages of the Wyckoff scheme denoted this phase. In contrast, the BTC price stabilized after a decline. The redistribution scheme in the Wyckoff method displayed a lower peak at $98K. This raised the possibility of a bearish consequence.

威科夫方案的“春季”和“测试”阶段表示这个阶段。相比之下，BTC价格则先跌后企稳。 Wyckoff 方法中的再分配方案显示出较低的峰值，为 98,000 美元。这增加了出现看跌后果的可能性。

Bitcoin Short-Term SOPR Analysis: Key Observations

比特币短期 SOPR 分析：主要观察结果

The relationship between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) is visible in the figure below.

长期持有者（LTH）和短期持有者（STH）之间的关系如下图所示。

The market could move into a specific phase, mainly to peaks of particular cycles. If this happens, it is essential to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin supply transfer from LTHs to STHs.

市场可能会进入一个特定阶段，主要是进入特定周期的峰值。如果发生这种情况，有必要了解比特币供应从 LTH 转移到 STH 的动态。

These observations suggested that, despite the selling by LTHs, the Bitcoin price had strong fundamentals. This happened as the STH demand was still high.

这些观察结果表明，尽管 LTH 抛售，但比特币价格的基本面依然强劲。发生这种情况是因为 STH 需求仍然很高。

Analysis of STHs’ realized prices over various periods revealed that some levels acted as support. They backed the resistance levels as well.

对不同时期某物已实现价格的分析显示，某些水平起到了支撑作用。他们也支持阻力位。

These include the realized prices, which average $41,000. This resulted in short-term gains of up to $85,000 and long-term gains of $60,000.

其中包括平均 41,000 美元的实际价格。这导致短期收益高达 85,000 美元，长期收益高达 60,000 美元。

Moreover, the STH SOPR stood at 1. That highlighted that Short-term holders (STH) were not profitable by selling BTC at current levels, implying that they had no intention to sell. It could further accelerate the market.

此外，STH SOPR 为 1。这凸显出短期持有者 (STH) 通过在当前水平出售 BTC 无法获利，这意味着他们无意出售。它可以进一步加速市场发展。

Nevertheless, the declining SOPR post-recent rally suggested that the market may not yet be ready for another bull run. Instead, it may see further consolidation around the $100k mark.

然而，近期反弹后 SOPR 的下降表明市场可能尚未准备好迎接另一场牛市。相反，它可能会在 10 万美元大关附近进一步盘整。

Technical Analysis: What Does the Price Action Say?

技术分析：价格走势说明了什么？

On the daily timeframe analysis, the Bitcoin price traded in a sustained uptrend and stood beyond the key EMAs. Over the weekend, it reclaimed the $98K mark and regained buying momentum.

从每日时间框架分析来看，比特币价格呈持续上涨趋势，并超越了关键均线。周末，它重回 98,000 美元大关，并重新获得购买动力。

The token has formed the higher highs and higher lows series. Furthermore, the BTC price is poised for the subsequent bullish leg formation. Once it returns above the $100k mark, further accumulation could pave the way for a rise toward the $110,000 mark in the coming sessions.

该代币已形成更高的高点和更高的低点系列。此外，比特币价格已为随后的看涨腿形态做好了准备。一旦价格回到 10 万美元大关上方，进一步吸筹可能会为未来几个交易日上涨至 11 万美元大关铺平道路。

The momentum indicators RSI and MACD readings represented a bullish outlook. The Long/Short ratio stood at 0.986. This conveyed a higher long addition than shorts.

动量指标 RSI 和 MACD 读数代表看涨前景。多空比率为 0.986。这传达了比空头更高的多头附加值。

The uptrend was sustained until the BTC price was above the $95K mark, and the ongoing rally could extend further. However, a drop below the zone could trigger a profit booking move toward the $90k mark.

上涨趋势一直持续到 BTC 价格突破 9.5 万美元大关，并且持续的涨势可能会进一步延续。然而，跌破该区域可能会引发利润向 9 万美元大关移动。

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