比特币（BTC）有望迎来可能改变游戏规则的第四季度

这种情况的发生是因为历史模式和专家预测表明即将出现重大牛市。尽管最近出现波动

Bitcoin (BTC) is up for a potentially game-changing fourth quarter. This happens as historical patterns and expert predictions indicate a significant bull run on the horizon.

比特币（BTC）有望迎来一个可能改变游戏规则的第四季度。这种情况的发生是因为历史模式和专家预测表明即将出现重大牛市。

Despite recent fluctuations and an unclear trend, analysts are optimistic about strong performance in the last months of 2024, paving the way for considerable gains in the years ahead.

尽管近期出现波动且趋势不明朗，但分析师对 2024 年最后几个月的强劲表现持乐观态度，为未来几年的可观收益铺平了道路。

Here's a closer look at theкспертные прогнозы и недавние ценовые движения BTC.

以下是专家预测和近期 BTC 价格走势的详细分析。

Historical Trends Point to Q4 Rally

历史趋势指向第四季度反弹

Historically, Bitcoin’s price during halving cycles has consistently demonstrated a robust rally in Q4. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlights this trend on X, noting that previous cycles saw Bitcoin prices surge as the year ended. Ju expects a repeat of this pattern, anticipating a strong finish to 2024.

从历史上看，减半周期中比特币的价格在第四季度一直表现出强劲的上涨。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 在 X 上强调了这一趋势，并指出，在之前的周期中，比特币价格在年底时飙升。 Ju 预计这种模式会重演，并预计到 2024 年将会有强劲的表现。

Currently trading around $61,000, Bitcoin is poised for potential growth. Ju’s analysis, in line with historical data, indicates that Q4 could be a pivotal time for a bullish breakout.

目前比特币的交易价格约为 61,000 美元，有望实现潜在增长。 Ju的分析与历史数据一致，表明第四季度可能是看涨突破的关键时刻。

Analysts’ Forecasts Strong Q4 for Bitcoin

分析师对比特币第四季度的预测强劲

As reported by The Coin Republic, Ali Martinez on X pointed out on August 19 that “it's been 119 days since the 2024 Bitcoin halving.” Historical trends show that Bitcoin often reaches a market peak approximately 530 days after a halving.

据《Coin Republic》报道，X 上的阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 8 月 19 日指出，“距离 2024 年比特币减半已经过去 119 天了”。历史趋势表明，比特币通常在减半后约 530 天达到市场峰值。

It's been 119 days since the 2024 #Bitcoin halving

2024 年 #Bitcoin 减半已经过去 119 天了

In the last two cycles, $BTC hit a market top around 530 days post-halving. If history repeats, we're still in the early stages of this cycle!

在过去的两个周期中，BTC 在减半后 530 天左右达到了市场顶部。如果历史重演，我们仍处于这个周期的早期阶段！

chart by @ki_young_ju pic.twitter.com/Yxxo7DLfsg

图表由 @ki_young_ju pic.twitter.com/Yxxo7DLfsg

If this trend continues, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin might be entering the early phases of a parabolic run, with significant movements anticipated later this year.

马丁内斯表示，如果这种趋势持续下去，比特币可能会进入抛物线运行的早期阶段，预计今年晚些时候将出现重大波动。

CryptoCon, another prominent analyst, shares this optimistic outlook. As reported by The Coin Republic, CryptoCon has updated its November 28th Cycles Theory. It suggests that the current market activity is part of a larger trend that could lead to ATH.

另一位著名分析师 CryptoCon 也持同样乐观的看法。据 Coin Republic 报道，CryptoCon 更新了其 11 月 28 日周期理论。它表明当前的市场活动是可能导致 ATH 的更大趋势的一部分。

I've made many improvements to the November 28th Cycles Theory since I created it in January 2023, but the original model's idea remains intact.

自 2023 年 1 月创建 11 月 28 日周期理论以来，我对它进行了许多改进，但原始模型的想法保持不变。

Some people are calling for a #Bitcoin top or a recession, but I think the best is still yet to come.

有些人呼吁#Bitcoin见顶或陷入衰退，但我认为最好的时刻尚未到来。

The March 2024 local high has… pic.twitter.com/FR1MzhJrtp

2024 年 3 月当地高中有…… pic.twitter.com/FR1MzhJrtp

Despite recent market fluctuations, CryptoCon predicts that the peak could occur in late 2025, with a possible price target nearing $200,000. This forecast reflects a positive perspective on Bitcoin’s long-term path, setting the stage for a major rally in the months leading up to late 2025.

尽管近期市场出现波动，CryptoCon 预计峰值可能会在 2025 年底出现，可能的目标价格接近 20 万美元。这一预测反映了对比特币长期路径的积极看法，为 2025 年底之前的几个月的大幅反弹奠定了基础。

BTC Price Lacks Clear Direction

BTC价格缺乏明确的方向

Despite the optimistic forecasts, Bitcoin's present market behavior stands in stark contrast to earlier expectations. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has recently pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trapped in a descending channel, showing no definitive trend. He observes that the BTC price action is creating a broadening triangle pattern, with no clear direction yet established.

尽管有乐观的预测，但比特币目前的市场行为与之前的预期形成了鲜明对比。资深交易员Peter Brandt最近指出，比特币目前陷入下降通道，没有显示出明确的趋势。他观察到，比特币的价格走势正在形成一个不断扩大的三角形模式，但尚未确定明确的方向。

Charts of continuing interest are Bitcoin and Ether.

持续关注的图表是比特币和以太币。

Weekly and daily graphs continue to form a megaphone or broadening triangle pattern in BTC

比特币的每周和每日图表继续形成扩音器或扩大的三角形模式

No declaration of next trend yet

尚未宣布下一个趋势

$BTC $ETH will remain defensive unless/until close above 3050 occurs pic.twitter.com/aEESwhX5oC

$BTC $ETH 将保持防御性，除非/直到收盘价高于 3050 pic.twitter.com/aEESwhX5oC

The lack of strong demand from large-volume investors is evident in the present market landscape, alongside a gradual recovery from April's block subsidy halving. Predictions for new all-time highs this year have also diminished, with many forecasts turning out to be inaccurate.

在目前的市场格局中，大额投资者缺乏强劲的需求是显而易见的，同时也从四月份的集体补贴减半中逐渐复苏。对今年创下历史新高的预测也有所减少，许多预测被证明是不准确的。

Whales are anticipated to play a big role in influencing Bitcoin's price movements in Q4. Ki Young Ju highlights that whales are likely to spark market activity, preventing stagnation and fostering a bullish sentiment.

预计鲸鱼将在影响第四季度比特币价格走势方面发挥重要作用。 Ki Young Ju 强调，鲸鱼可能会引发市场活动，防止停滞并培育看涨情绪。

Even with the current volatility and uncertain short-term trends, the overall perspective suggests that Bitcoin might be on the verge of a significant rally.

尽管目前存在波动性和不确定的短期趋势，但总体来看，比特币可能正处于大幅反弹的边缘。