比特币 (BTC) 在触及新的 ATH 后面临不确定期

比特币市场在触及新的ATH后，目前面临一段不确定时期，交易者面临着获利还是持有的两难境地

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high (ATH) recently, presenting a dilemma for traders whether to take profits or still hold for more.

比特币价格最近创下历史新高（ATH），让交易者面临是获利了结还是继续持有更多的困境。

The “Percentage of Addresses in Profit vs. Loss” chart for BTC indicated that nearly all addresses were at the time in profit, a rare occurrence historically associated with local market tops.

BTC 的“盈利与亏损地址百分比”图表表明，几乎所有地址当时都盈利，这在历史上与当地市场顶部相关的情况很少见。

This metric highlighted that whenever 100% of addresses have been in profit, the peak was typically in, lasting no more than two days before a correction occurred.

该指标强调，每当 100% 的地址实现盈利时，峰值通常就会出现，在出现调整之前持续不超过两天。

Bitcoin breaking its ATH, suggested that a minor correction could soon follow, reflecting patterns seen in previous cycles. In the bull runs of 2017 and the 2020/2021 period, the percentage of profitable addresses fluctuated between 80% and 100%, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

比特币突破最高峰值，表明可能很快就会出现小幅调整，反映了之前周期中出现的模式。在2017年和2020/2021年的牛市中，盈利地址比例在80%到100%之间波动，表明看涨势头持续。

However, during the peak of late 2021, the percentage didn’t sustain at 100% for even a day, signaling immediate profit-taking and a sharp reversal. The behavior associated investor strategy: buy during periods of losses and sell in profit phases to capitalize on volatility.

然而，在2021年末的高峰期间，该百分比甚至没有维持在100%一天，这表明立即获利回吐和急剧反转。与投资者策略相关的行为：在亏损期间买入并在盈利阶段卖出以利用波动性。

If the trend of high profitability persists while BTC prices remain elevated, it might indicate increased risk exposure among investors, often preceding a significant market correction.

如果高盈利能力的趋势持续存在，而比特币价格仍保持高位，则可能表明投资者的风险敞口增加，通常是在市场大幅调整之前。

The MOVE Index Suggests “BTC Isn’t Done Yet”

MOVE 指数表明“BTC 尚未完成”

The MOVE Index, which gauges U.S. Treasury yield volatility, dropped following recent political events, indicating reduced financial market uncertainty. This decline suggested an impending correction to align it with its historical norms.

衡量美国国债收益率波动性的 MOVE 指数在最近的政治事件后下跌，表明金融市场的不确定性减少。这种下降表明即将进行调整，以使其符合历史标准。

Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point rate cut likely contributed to lowering the Dollar Index (DXY), which remains high. A weaker dollar generally favors risk assets like Bitcoin, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

与此同时，美联储最近降息 25 个基点可能导致美元指数 (DXY) 下跌，而美元指数仍处于高位。美元走软通常有利于比特币等风险资产，因为它降低了持有非收益资产的机会成本。

The connection between lower MOVE and DXY levels suggested a favorable environment for risk assets supported by early signs from the Global Liquidity model, an indication of uptick in market risk appetite.

MOVE 和 DXY 水平较低之间的联系表明，在全球流动性模型的早期迹象的支持下，风险资产处于有利的环境，表明市场风险偏好有所上升。

Despite the broader market’s focus on liquidity, Bitcoin showed resilience, gaining independently. The decoupling highlighted Bitcoin’s maturing status as an asset class and its attractiveness during times of decreased volatility and dollar weakness.

尽管大盘关注流动性，但比特币表现出了韧性，独立上涨。这种脱钩凸显了比特币作为一种资产类别的成熟地位及其在波动性下降和美元疲软时期的吸引力。

The environment may signal a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, potentially heralding a rewarding period for the cryptocurrency market as the year ends.

这种环境可能预示着比特币的看涨前景，可能预示着年底加密货币市场的回报期。

Is $50K the Next Focus When Bitcoin Peaks?

比特币见顶时 5 万美元是下一个焦点吗？

The Bitcoin price presented a stark visual of a downturn following a period where nearly all BTC addresses were in profit. Historically, when a large percentage of addresses are in profit, Bitcoin tends to face corrections as investors capitalize on gains, leading to increased selling pressure.

在几乎所有比特币地址都盈利的时期之后，比特币价格呈现出明显的低迷景象。从历史上看，当很大一部分地址盈利时，比特币往往会面临调整，因为投资者会利用收益，导致抛售压力增加。

Analysts Altcoin Sherpa predicted a fall from highs around $76.9K to below $54,000, supported by past behavior patterns. The chart illustrated strong resistance levels at about$76.9K, which Bitcoin failed to surpass.

分析师预测山寨币 Sherpa 预计，在过去行为模式的支撑下，山寨币将从 7.69 万美元左右的高点跌至 54,000 美元以下。该图表显示了约 76.9K 美元的强劲阻力位，比特币未能突破该水平。

The correction has the potential to deepen towards the $54K mark, a psychological and technical support level in bear market. The zone could serve as a stabilization point, attracting buyers looking for value, but further declines could be on the horizon if selling pressure persists.

此次调整有可能深化至 54,000 美元大关，这是熊市的心理和技术支撑位。该区域可以作为一个稳定点，吸引寻求价值的买家，但如果抛售压力持续存在，可能会出现进一步下跌。

Investors should monitor for consolidation or a continuation of the sell-off at the $50,000 level, which could determine the medium-term market direction.

投资者应关注 50,000 美元水平的盘整或抛售是否持续，这可能决定中期市场方向。