比特币 (BTC) 下一个 MVRV 定价区间目前估值为 79,600 美元

一位分析师解释说，如果 BTC 能够保持在定价模型的这一重要水平之上，那么比特币将“可能上涨以测试”79,600 美元的水平。

Bitcoin price has been rallying over the past couple of weeks and finally managed to breach past the key level of $60,000. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $69,500, and an analyst has explained how BTC will “likely rise to test” the $79,600 level if it can continue to hold above this important level of a pricing model.

过去几周，比特币价格一直在上涨，最终突破了 60,000 美元的关键水平。截至撰写本文时，该代币的交易价格约为 69,500 美元，一位分析师解释说，如果 BTC 能够继续保持在定价模型的这一重要水平之上，那么它“可能会上涨以测试”79,600 美元的水平。

An analyst has recently explained how Bitcoin price is likely to head next based on an on-chain pricing model. The model itself is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator. This metric essentially tells us how the value that the Bitcoin investors hold right now (i.e. the market cap) compares against what they put in (the realized cap).

一位分析师最近根据链上定价模型解释了比特币价格接下来可能会如何走势。该模型本身基于流行的市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 指标。该指标本质上告诉我们比特币投资者目前持有的价值（即市值）与他们投入的价值（已实现的上限）相比如何。

When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means that the holders as a whole are carrying a value higher than their initial investment; that is, they are in net profits. On the other hand, the MVRV being less than this threshold implies that the overall market is underwater at the moment.

当该指标值大于1时，表示持有者整体持有的价值高于其初始投资；也就是说，它们是净利润。另一方面，MVRV 低于这个阈值意味着目前整个市场处于水下状态。

There are a couple of pricing models based on this metric, but in the context of the current discussion, the “MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands” are of interest. This model uses the standard deviations around the MVRV mean to signify the relevant price levels.

有几种基于此指标的定价模型，但在当前讨论的背景下，“MVRV 极端偏差定价范围”令人感兴趣。该模型使用 MVRV 均值周围的标准差来表示相关价格水平。

Below is a chart that shows how these levels currently look for Bitcoin.

下面的图表显示了比特币当前的这些水平。

Bitcoin Price Tops Have Historically Formed Past The +1σ MVRD Pricing Band Level

历史上，比特币价格顶部已超过 +1σ MVRD 定价区间水平

As you can see from the graph, Bitcoin price is currently trading above the +0.5σ pricing band. At the price level corresponding to this 0.5σ level ($66,800 right now), BTC’s MVRV value becomes 0.5 standard deviations above its mean value.

从图中可以看出，比特币价格目前交易在 +0.5σ 定价区间之上。在与此 0.5σ 水平相对应的价格水平（目前为 66,800 美元），BTC 的 MVRV 值比其平均值高出 0.5 个标准差。

According to this model, the next level of interest is the +1σ, where the MVRV is 1 standard deviation over its mean. The price level at which the MVRV ratio would satisfy this condition is $79,600.

根据此模型，下一个感兴趣的水平是 +1σ，其中 MVRV 比其平均值高 1 个标准差。 MVRV 比率满足此条件的价格水平为 79,600 美元。

Historically, tops in the cryptocurrency have tended to form when the price breaches past this MVRV pricing band level. From the chart, it’s visible that BTC already surpassed this level earlier in the year when it set its new all-time high, which continues to be the peak of the rally so far.

从历史上看，当价格突破 MVRV 定价区间水平时，加密货币往往会形成顶部。从图表中可以看出，比特币在今年早些时候创下历史新高时就已经突破了这一水平，并且迄今为止仍是反弹的顶峰。

Ali suggests that if Bitcoin can continue to hold above $66,800 (the +0.5σ pricing band level), the asset will “likely rise to test the 1.0σ pricing band at $79,600.” A potential rally to this level would imply an increase of more than 14% for BTC from its current price.

Ali 表示，如果比特币能够继续保持在 66,800 美元（+0.5σ 定价区间水平）之上，该资产“可能会上涨以测试 79,600 美元的 1.0σ 定价区间”。如果比特币价格上涨至这一水平，则其价格将比当前价格上涨 14% 以上。

Why do tops tend to be more probable to happen above the +1σ MVRV pricing band? The reason could lie in the fact that when the MVRV attains values this high, the investors are holding considerable profits, so they are more likely to participate in a mass selloff.

为什么顶部更有可能出现在 +1σ MVRV 定价区间之上？原因可能在于，当 MVRV 达到如此高的价值时，投资者持有可观的利润，因此他们更有可能参与大规模抛售。