比特币（BTC）市场周期指标再次处于熊市阶段（浅蓝色区域）

比特币（BTC）是全球市值最大的加密货币，在过去一周大幅贬值。

Bitcoin [BTC] has had an interesting month. After dropping to as low as $49,500 on the charts earlier in August, the world’s largest cryptocurrency recovered quickly. Later, it hit a local high of over $65k, before losing its gains again to drop below $60k. Now, as the month nears its end, BTC was seen trading at a value of $59,129, down by over 7%.

比特币 [BTC] 度过了有趣的一个月。在 8 月初跌至 49,500 美元的低点后，全球最大的加密货币迅速​​复苏。后来，它触及超过 65,000 美元的局部高点，然后再次失去涨幅，跌破 60,000 美元。现在，随着月底临近，BTC 交易价格为 59,129 美元，下跌超过 7%。

Now, while BTC dropped significantly earlier this month, many are still uncertain about the scale of the next wave of corrections. In fact, several analysts have differing opinions on the matter. However, one analysis suggested that Bitcoin may register a strong decline if the price declines below $56k.

现在，尽管比特币本月早些时候大幅下跌，但许多人仍不确定下一波调整的规模。事实上，多位分析师对此事持有不同看法。然而，一项分析表明，如果价格跌破 5.6 万美元，比特币可能会大幅下跌。

Bitcoin’s bear phase

比特币的熊市阶段

In his analysis, Cryptoquant analyst Julio Moreno highlighted the market cycle indicator, which showed $56k to be the crucial support level. According to the analyst, if the price falls below this level, the crypto will seen significant weakness.

Cryptoquant 分析师 Julio Moreno 在他的分析中强调了市场周期指标，该指标显示 5.6 万美元是关键的支撑位。分析师表示，如果价格跌破该水平，加密货币将出现严重疲软。

Since the Bitcoin market cycle indicator has turned bearish again, the crypto risks further correction below the demand zone.

由于比特币市场周期指标再次转为看跌，加密货币有进一步跌破需求区域的风险。

Moreno shared the analysis on X, noting that,

Moreno 分享了对 X 的分析，并指出，

“#Bitcoin market cycle indicator is again in BEAR phase (light blue area). From a valuation perspective, if the price pierces $56K to the downside, risks of a larger correction increase.”

“#比特币市场周期指标再次处于熊市阶段（浅蓝色区域）。从估值角度来看，如果价格下跌至 5.6 万美元，则出现更大幅度回调的风险就会增加。”

If the bulls don’t reclaim the market, the Bear phase is bound to persist.

如果多头不夺回市场，熊市阶段必然会持续下去。

Other market indicators

其他市场指标

While these metrics highlighted by Moreno suggest possible future price movements, it’s essential to see what other market indicators have to say about the matter at hand.

虽然莫雷诺强调的这些指标表明了未来可能的价格走势，但有必要了解其他市场指标对当前问题的看法。

To begin with, Bitcoin’s NUPL has declined over the past 7 days. In fact, the metric shifted from a value of 0.5 to 0.4. This highlighted a movement from investors’ realized unrealized profit to a realized unrealized loss.

首先，比特币的 NUPL 在过去 7 天内有所下降。事实上，该指标的值从 0.5 变为 0.4。这凸显了投资者从已实现的未实现利润到已实现的未实现损失的变化。

This is a sign that the market may be leaning bearish. By extension, this means investors are worrying about the sustainability of the current prices, which may result in selling pressure.

这是市场可能倾向于看跌的迹象。推而广之，这意味着投资者担心当前价格的可持续性，这可能会导致抛售压力。

Furthermore, BTC is reporting a negative adjusted price DAA divergence of -44.31.

此外，BTC 报告的 DAA 价格负背离为 -44.31。

This suggests a decline in on-chain activity based on current prices. Such market conditions result in correction as prices adjust to the lower level of on-chain activity.

这表明根据当前价格，链上活动有所下降。随着价格调整以适应较低的链上活动水平，这种市场状况会导致调整。

Finally, the MVRV ratio for BTC has remained at 1.8 over the past week. This shows that participants are in profit, which could lead to selling pressure as they aim to realize those gains. Therefore, if BTC holders decide to sell at this rate to realize their profits, it would lead to further price correction.

最后，过去一周 BTC 的 MVRV 比率保持在 1.8。这表明参与者正在盈利，这可能会导致抛售压力，因为他们的目标是实现这些收益。因此，如果BTC持有者决定以这个价格出售以实现利润，将导致价格进一步调整。

If selling pressure increases, the market will experience a pullback.

如果抛售压力增加，市场将出现回调。

Therefore, as the Cryptoquant analyst suggests, BTC is in the bear phase. If the current market conditions hold, Bitcoin may be positioned for a bigger correction. A pullback below the $56 level will see BTC fall below $50k to the critical support of $49k.

因此，正如 Cryptoquant 分析师所暗示的那样，BTC 正处于熊市阶段。如果当前的市场状况保持不变，比特币可能会出现更大的调整。回调至 56 美元以下将导致 BTC 跌破 5 万美元至 4.9 万美元的关键支撑位。