VanEck 的 Matthew Sigel 预测，到 2025 年，比特币 (BTC) 的价格可能会达到 180,000 美元

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示，受宏观经济趋势、通胀对冲和零售投机增加的推动，到 2025 年，比特币 (BTC) 的价格可能会达到 180,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to witness a remarkable surge, potentially reaching $180,000 by 2025, as suggested by VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示，比特币 (BTC) 有望大幅飙升，到 2025 年可能达到 18 万美元。

In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, hosted by Natalie Brunell, Sigel shared his optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, predicting its continued ascent during the current bull cycle.

在最近由 Natalie Brunell 主持的 Coin Stories 播客中，Sigel 分享了他对比特币的乐观前景，预测比特币在当前牛市周期中将继续上涨。

However, he noted that corporate adoption of Bitcoin has been缓慢, largely due to structural and regulatory challenges.

然而，他指出，企业对比特币的采用一直在缓慢进行，这主要是由于结构性和监管方面的挑战。

According to Sigel, traditional asset managers, such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, continue to follow rigid 60-40 asset allocation models, which limits the integration of Bitcoin.

Sigel表示，摩根士丹利和美林等传统资产管理公司继续遵循僵化的60-40资产配置模式，这限制了比特币的整合。

Currently, around 80% of Bitcoin ETF holders are retail or high-net-worth individuals. Sigel anticipates broader institutional adoption if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reverses its accounting rule, SAB 121. This rule complicates Bitcoin custody for banks, but Sigel expects the SEC to make the adjustment in early 2025, potentially opening up mainstream financial platforms for Bitcoin.

目前，大约 80% 的比特币 ETF 持有者是散户或高净值个人。 Sigel 预计，如果美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 推翻其会计规则 SAB 121，机构会更广泛地采用该规则。该规则会使银行的比特币托管变得复杂，但 Sigel 预计 SEC 将在 2025 年初做出调整，有可能开放主流金融平台对于比特币。

To substantiate his $180,000 price projection, Sigel highlighted Bitcoin’s historical price patterns. After the April 2024 halving, Sigel anticipates strong years in 2024 and 2025, followed by a possible correction in 2026.

为了证实他的 180,000 美元价格预测，Sigel 强调了比特币的历史价格模式。 2024 年 4 月减半后，Sigel 预计 2024 年和 2025 年将表现强劲，随后可能在 2026 年出现调整。

His prediction assumes a conservative 1,000% increase from Bitcoin’s $18,000 low during the last bear market—substantially less than previous trough-to-peak gains.

他的预测保守地假设，比特币在上一次熊市期间的低点 18,000 美元基础上将上涨 1,000%，大大低于之前的谷底到峰值涨幅。

Looking ahead, Sigel envisions Bitcoin reaching $450,000 in the next cycle, which would be roughly half of gold’s market cap (excluding industrial and jewelry use). Over the longer term, if global central banks adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset with just a 2% allocation—compared to gold’s 18%—he sees a path to $1 million per coin by 2050.

展望未来，Sigel 预计比特币在下一个周期将达到 45 万美元，大约相当于黄金市值的一半（不包括工业和珠宝用途）。从长远来看，如果全球央行采用比特币作为储备资产，且其配置比例仅为 2%（而黄金的配置比例为 18%），他预计到 2050 年，每枚比特币的价格将达到 100 万美元。

While the U.S. government directly swapping gold reserves for Bitcoin is unlikely, Sigel suggested that Bitcoin miners could participate in infrastructure projects, especially in initiatives like Trump’s proposed “Freedom Cities.”

虽然美国政府不太可能直接用黄金储备换取比特币，但西格尔建议比特币矿工可以参与基础设施项目，特别是特朗普提出的“自由城市”等倡议。

Sigel also took the opportunity to promote VanEck’s nuclear energy ETF (NLR), emphasizing the rising demand for clean energy solutions to support Bitcoin mining.

Sigel还借此机会宣传VanEck的核能ETF（NLR），强调对支持比特币挖矿的清洁能源解决方案的需求不断增长。

Despite his bullish outlook, Sigel remains wary of short-term hype, underscoring that Bitcoin’s long-term role as “digital gold” and a hedge against financial instability is becoming increasingly evident.

尽管前景看好，西格尔仍然对短期炒作保持警惕，强调比特币作为“数字黄金”和对冲金融不稳定的长期作用正变得越来越明显。

Also Read: MicroStrategy’s Saylor Sees Bitcoin as ‘Cyber Manhattan’

另请阅读：MicroStrategy 的 Saylor 将比特币视为“网络曼哈顿”