比特币 (BTC) 预计到 2025 年将达到 20 万美元，到 2033 年将达到 100 万美元 - Bernstein

全球投资公司AllianceBernstein的分析师继续看好比特币（BTC）。现在，他们预测旗舰加密货币将达到顶峰

Global investment firm AllianceBernstein has upped its bullish prediction for Bitcoin fiyatı, now expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit an astonishing $200,000 by 2025.

全球投资公司 AllianceBernstein 上调了对比特币价格的乐观预测，目前预计到 2025 年，这一旗舰加密货币的价格将达到惊人的 20 万美元。

Bernstein further expects the BTC price to reach the coveted $1 million mark by 2033. Once it hits $500,000 in 2029, the broker is convinced that BTC will double its value in just four years.

Bernstein 进一步预计，到 2033 年，BTC 的价格将达到令人垂涎的 100 万美元大关。一旦在 2029 年达到 50 万美元，该经纪人相信 BTC 的价值将在短短四年内翻倍。

After touching a record high of almost $74,000 in March, the price of Bitcoin slipped back below its prior all-time high of $69,000, but some analysts are still bullish on the foremost cryptocurrency.

在 3 月份触及近 74,000 美元的历史高点后，比特币的价格回落至之前的历史高点 69,000 美元以下，但一些分析师仍然看好这种最重要的加密货币。

AllianceBernstein said Thursday that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, up from a previous projection of $150,000. Crucially, Bernstein sees the price of Bitcoin reaching $1 million in less than a decade.

AllianceBernstein 周四表示，到 2025 年底，比特币价格将达到 20 万美元，高于之前预测的 15 万美元。至关重要的是，伯恩斯坦认为比特币的价格将在不到十年的时间内达到 100 万美元。

The brokerage firm’s price forecast is spurred by the huge demand from the new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

该经纪公司的价格预测是受到新现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的巨大需求推动的。

“We believe that the U.S. regulated ETFs were the watershed moment for crypto that brought in structural demand from traditional pools of capital,” Bernstein said in a June 13 research report. “Around $15 billion of net new flows have been brought in by the ETFs combined. We expect Bitcoin ETFs to be equivalent to ~7% of Bitcoin in circulation by 2025 and ~15% of Bitcoin supply by 2033.”

Bernstein 在 6 月 13 日的研究报告中表示：“我们认为，美国监管的 ETF 是加密货币的分水岭，它带来了传统资本池的结构性需求。” “ETF 合计带来了约 150 亿美元的净新资金流入。我们预计，到 2025 年，比特币 ETF 将相当于比特币流通量的 7% 左右，到 2033 年，将相当于比特币供应量的 15% 左右。”

Following a decade of attempts by prominent firms, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave its regulatory blessing to 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. The investment vehicles, which now trade on stock exchanges, have seen unprecedented success as everyday investors interested in BTC acquire ETF shares.

经过知名公司十年的尝试后，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 在 1 月份对 11 只现货比特币 ETF 给予了监管支持。随着对 B​​TC 感兴趣的日常投资者购买 ETF 股票，这些现在在证券交易所进行交易的投资工具取得了前所未有的成功。

The Nashville-based global asset manager also cites Bitcoin's “constrained” supply as another factor that will propel the price following the April quadrennial halving event, where the miners' rewards for keeping the network running were permanently slashed by 50% from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This implies that the new supply of the biggest digital coin by market cap dropped from 900 BTC daily to 450 post-halving — making the cryptocurrency scarcer.

这家总部位于纳什维尔的全球资产管理公司还指出，比特币供应“受限”是继 4 月份四年一次的减半事件之后推动价格上涨的另一个因素，矿工维持网络运行的奖励被永久削减 50%，从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC比特币。这意味着市值最大的数字货币的新供应量从每日 900 BTC 下降到减半后的 450 BTC，从而使加密货币更加稀缺。

“We believe Bitcoin is in a new bull cycle,” the analysts said. “The ‘halving’ presents a unique circumstance, where natural bitcoin sell-pressure from miners declines by half (or even more, as they inventory more in anticipation), while new catalysts for Bitcoin demand rise, leading to exponential price moves.”

“我们相信比特币正处于新的牛市周期，”分析师表示。 “‘减半’呈现出一种独特的情况，矿工的自然比特币抛售压力下降了一半（甚至更多，因为他们预期库存更多），而比特币需求的新催化剂上升，导致价格呈指数级波动。”

The analysts also highlighted the historical relationship between Bitcoin's price and its price-to-marginal cost. This important metric reveals how much Bitcoin trades above its production costs, offering key insights into profitability for miners and the wider market sentiment.

分析师还强调了比特币价格与其价格与边际成本之间的历史关系。这一重要指标揭示了比特币的交易量高于其生产成本，为矿工的盈利能力和更广泛的市场情绪提供了重要的见解。

If we look at prior Bitcoin cycles, the crypto reached a 5.0 multiplier of its marginal cost of production in 2017, catapulting the price to an all-time high of nearly $20,000. Bernstein noted that 2018 saw the multiplier slump to a low of 0.8.

如果我们看看之前的比特币周期，就会发现该加密货币在 2017 年达到了边际生产成本的 5.0 倍，使价格飙升至近 20,000 美元的历史新高。伯恩斯坦指出，2018 年乘数跌至 0.8 的低点。

In 2021, BTC attained a 2.3 price multiplier on the marginal cost but slipped to 0.7 in 2022, the investment firm continued, forcing inefficient, unprofitable miners to exit.

该投资公司继续说道，2021 年，BTC 的边际成本价格乘数达到了 2.3 倍，但到 2022 年则下滑至 0.7，迫使效率低下、无利可图的矿商退出。

The projection for the 2025 cycle suggests an anticipated price multiplier of 1.5, correlating with Bernstein’s price target of $150,000 by mid-2025.

对 2025 年周期的预测表明，预期价格乘数为 1.5，与 Bernstein 到 2025 年中期 150,000 美元的价格目标相关。