报告称，比特币 (BTC) 仍有增长空间，与 2015-2018 年周期相呼应

市场分析平台 Glassnode 和 CryptoQuant 的报告表明，比特币仍有更大幅增长的空间。该报告发布之际，比特币 (BTC) 创下 109,000 美元的历史新高

Bitcoin (BTC) still has room for more substantial growth in 2025, according to market analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant.

根据市场分析平台 Glassnode 和 CryptoQuant 的数据，比特币 (BTC) 到 2025 年仍有更大幅增长的空间。

As Bitcoin (BTC) claims a new all-time high of $109,000 on the back of President Donald Trump’s inauguration, market analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant have suggested that the apex cryptocurrency’s current cycle could still lead to higher highs.

在唐纳德·特朗普总统就职后，比特币 (BTC) 创下 109,000 美元的历史新高，市场分析平台 Glassnode 和 CryptoQuant 表示，顶级加密货币的当前周期仍可能会创下更高的高点。

In its report, Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin’s current trend in the 2022+ cycle closely resembles historical patterns, especially the 2015-2018 cycle. To confirm this, the market resource examined data across all Bitcoin cycles.

Glassnode 在报告中强调，比特币在 2022 年以上周期中的当前趋势与历史模式非常相似，尤其是 2015-2018 年周期。为了证实这一点，市场资源检查了所有比特币周期的数据。

Bitcoin trailing 2015-2018 cycle. Source: Glassnode

比特币落后于 2015-2018 年周期。来源：Glassnode

Particularly, at the current stage of the market, the Genesis to 2011 cycle had seen an 80.51x price increase from the cycle low, while the 2011 to 2015 cycle had achieved a 55.30x growth.

特别是，在市场现阶段，Genesis至2011周期的价格较周期低点上涨了80.51倍，而2011至2015周期则实现了55.30倍的增长。

Meanwhile, the 2015 to 2018 and 2018 to 2022 cycles had delivered smaller but still impressive gains of 2.80x and 3.31x from their respective cycle lows. Interestingly, the 2022+ cycle is currently up 2.92x from its low at this stage, resembling the trajectory of the 2015 to 2018 cycle.

与此同时，2015 年至 2018 年和 2018 年至 2022 年周期的涨幅较小，但仍较各自周期低点分别增长 2.80 倍和 3.31 倍，令人印象深刻。有趣的是，2022+ 周期目前较现阶段的低点上涨了 2.92 倍，类似于 2015 年至 2018 年周期的轨迹。

Data from Glassnode’s chart confirms that at this stage in the 2015 to 2018 cycle, Bitcoin had risen 562%, while the ongoing cycle has achieved a 630% increase.

Glassnode 图表中的数据证实，在 2015 年至 2018 年周期的现阶段，比特币已上涨 562%，而当前周期已实现 630% 的涨幅。

However, the chart also revealed that after rising 562% from its cycle low in 2015-2018, Bitcoin witnessed a further rally, with its growth ultimately rising to 11,374%. This represented the peak of $19,666 in December 2017.

然而，该图表还显示，在从 2015-2018 年的周期低点上涨 562% 后，比特币出现了进一步反弹，其涨幅最终升至 11,374%。这代表了 2017 年 12 月 19,666 美元的峰值。

This indicates that, with Bitcoin now up 630% in the current cycle, it could still witness a more substantial growth if it continues to trail the 2015-2018 cycle. However, the extent of its further growth remains uncertain.

这表明，尽管比特币在当前周期中上涨了630%，但如果继续落后于2015-2018年周期，它仍可能出现更大幅度的增长。然而，其进一步增长的程度仍不确定。

To put things into perspective, if the current cycle were to replicate the exact 2015-2018 trajectory, an 11,374% rise from this cycle’s 2022 low of around $15,000 could theoretically push Bitcoin to a peak of $1.7 million, given its 2022 low of $15,000. However, this growth is likely unfeasible.

从长远来看，如果当前周期要复制 2015-2018 年的确切轨迹，那么从该周期的 2022 年低点约 15,000 美元上涨 11,374% 理论上可能会推动比特币达到 170 万美元的峰值，因为 2022 年低点为 15,000 美元。然而，这种增长可能是不可行的。

Bitcoin realized cap multiplier. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币实现上限乘数。来源：CryptoQuant

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant agreed that Bitcoin still has more room to grow in 2025, presenting a more realistic target of $145,000 to $249,000. Their analysis relies on the realized cap multiplier, which measures how Bitcoin’s market value responds to capital inflows.

在另一项分析中，CryptoQuant 同意比特币在 2025 年仍有更大的增长空间，提出了 145,000 美元至 249,000 美元的更现实的目标。他们的分析依赖于已实现上限乘数，该乘数衡量比特币的市场价值对资本流入的反应。

According to the report, during bull markets, Bitcoin’s multiplier typically ranges between 2 and 6, meaning every $1 of new investment could increase the market value by $2 to $6. Based on projected capital inflows of $520 billion by 2025, they calculated these price targets as realistic.

报告称，在牛市期间，比特币的乘数通常在 2 到 6 之间，这意味着每 1 美元的新投资可以使市值增加 2 到 6 美元。根据预计到 2025 年资本流入将达到 5200 亿美元，他们计算出这些价格目标是现实的。

In other news, market analyst Joohyun Ryu recently noted that crypto demand is surging among South Korean investors, a factor that could help propel further growth for Bitcoin. The “Kimchi Premium,” which shows higher local crypto prices, indicates increased domestic interest.

在其他消息中，市场分析师 Joohyun Ryu 最近指出，韩国投资者对加密货币的需求正在激增，这一因素可能有助于推动比特币的进一步增长。 “泡菜溢价”显示当地加密货币价格较高，表明国内兴趣增加。

At the same time, Ryu noted that rising unemployment rates in the United States present a potential risk to global economic stability. Notably, such trends have preceded recessions, suggesting the need for caution despite optimistic market conditions. Currently, Bitcoin trades for $104,637, down 2.82% over the past 24 hours.

与此同时，柳指出，美国失业率上升对全球经济稳定构成潜在风险。值得注意的是，此类趋势出现在经济衰退之前，表明尽管市场状况乐观，但仍需谨慎。目前，比特币交易价格为 104,637 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 2.82%。