比特币（BTC）将继续在下半年以金牌为代价

摩根大通分析师报告说，比特币可能会在下半年以黄金为代价而获得基础

JPMorgan analysts reported that bitcoin is likely to continue gaining ground at gold’s expense in the second half of the year, driven by rising corporate demand and growing support from U.S. states.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师报告说，由于公司需求不断上升和美国各州的支持，比特币可能会在下半年以黄金为代价而获得基础。

According to analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the ‘debasement trade’—where investors turn to gold and bitcoin to guard against weakening fiat currencies—has turned into a zero-sum contest, where bitcoin is now gaining the upper hand.

据董事总经理尼古拉斯·潘尼格尔佐洛（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）领导的分析师说，“贬低贸易”（投资者都转向黄金和比特币以防止削弱法定货币，这变成了零和竞赛，比特币现在已经获得了比特币的越来越高。

“Between mid-February and mid-April gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite, i.e. bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” said JPMorgan analysts. “In all, we expect the YTD zero sum game between gold and bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.”

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师说：“在2月中旬至4月中旬，黄金以牺牲比特币为代价，而过去三周我们一直在观察相反的情况，即比特币以牺牲黄金为代价。” “总的来说，我们预计黄金和比特币之间的YTD零和游戏将扩展到今年的剩余时间，但偏向于特定于加密特定的催化剂，在下半年为比特币创造了更多的比特币。”

Since April 22, gold has dropped nearly 8%, while bitcoin has surged 18%. Investor flows reflect this shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and moving into bitcoin. Futures data reflects the same trend, with gold positions decreasing and bitcoin positions increasing.

自4月22日以来，黄金下降了近8％，而比特币飙升了18％。投资者的流动反映了这一转变，资本从黄金ETF中移出并进入比特币。期货数据反映了相同的趋势，金额降低，比特币位置增加。

JPMorgan attributes bitcoin’s momentum not just to weakening gold but to crypto-specific catalysts. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are increasing their bitcoin holdings, with Strategy planning to raise $84 billion for bitcoin purchases by 2027 and already hitting 32% of that target.

摩根大通将比特币的势头归因于削弱黄金，而且是特定于加密的催化剂。战略和Metaplanet等公司正在增加其比特币持有量，战略计划在2027年之前筹集840亿美元的比特币购买，并且已经达到了该目标的32％。

Yesterday, Metaplanet reported its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. Metaplanet’s bitcoin holdings rose to 6,796 BTC—a 3.9x increase year-to-date and over 5,000 BTC added in 2025 alone. Despite a temporary ¥7.4 billion valuation loss from a bitcoin price dip in March, the company rebounded with ¥13.5 billion in unrealized gains as of May 12. Since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, Metaplanet’s BTC net asset value has surged 103.1x, and its market cap has grown 138.1x.

昨天，Metaplanet报告了迄今为止第1季度第1季度的最强季度。 Metaplanet的比特币持有量增加到6,796 BTC，仅在2025年就增加了3.9倍，而仅在2025年增加了5,000多个BTC。尽管三月份的比特币价格下跌的临时估计损失暂时，但截至5月12日，该公司以未实现的收益为135亿日元。由于采用了比特币国库标准，Metaplanet的BTC净资产价值已经飙升了103.X倍，其市场上限已经增长了138.1x。

Several U.S. states are also warming to bitcoin. New Hampshire now permits up to 5% of its reserves in bitcoin. Arizona is launching a Bitcoin reserve and pledges not to raise taxes this year.

美国几个州也正在为比特币变暖。现在，新罕布什尔州允许其在比特币中的5％的储备。亚利桑那州正在推出比特币储备金，并承诺今年不提高税收。

“As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin,” wrote the analysts.

分析师写道：“随着名单的增长，随着美国其他州的可能考虑在其战略储备中增加比特币，这可能是比特币的更持续的积极催化剂。”