随着分析师在下一步行动中，比特币（BTC）合并在$ 95,000到$ 97,000之间

尽管试图在前一天反弹，但比特币（BTC）在周四的大部分时间里都交易了范围。值得注意的是，在过去的两个左右

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained largely range-bound on Thursday despite an attempt to rebound over the previous day.

尽管试图在前一天反弹，但比特币（BTC）的价格在周四仍在很大程度上限制。

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $95,695 at press time, reflecting a 1.43% surge in the past 24 hours and a 1.02% gain over the past seven days. However, BTC still remained far from its January peak of $109,300.

截至发稿时，全球最大的加密货币的交易价格为95,695美元，反映了过去24小时的1.43％的涨幅，过去7天的增长率为1.02％。但是，BTC仍然远离其1月份的峰值109,300美元。

Notably, over the past two or so weeks, Bitcoin has been consolidating between $95,000 and $97,000, struggling to break through key resistance at $97,000.

值得注意的是，在过去的两周左右的几周中，比特币在95,000美元至97,000美元之间的合并，努力以97,000美元的价格突破钥匙阻力。

Meanwhile, amid this muted price action, analysts remained divided on Bitcoin’s next move.

同时，在这种静音的价格行动中，分析师在比特币的下一步行动上仍然存在分歧。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts a potential drop to $77,000 before the bull market resumes. Drawing from historical data, the pundit argues that such a decline would not signify the end of the bullish cycle.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju预测，在牛市恢复之前，潜在的下降到77,000美元。从历史数据中得出，专家认为这种下降并不能表示看涨周期的终结。

“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year. We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad. I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., $110,000_$77,000), as seen in past cycles,” he tweeted Wednesday.

“我认为今年我们不会进入熊市。我们仍处于公牛周期。价格最终会上涨，但范围似乎很广泛。我个人认为，即使在过去的周期中可以看出，即使从ATH下降到-30％的售价为-30％（例如，$ 110,000_ $ 77,000）也可以持续下去。”

Ju’s analysis was based on the realized price metric, which assesses the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders. According to his data, Bitcoin’s realized price among ETF custodians and major institutional players sits around $89,000, while Binance traders and mining companies have average entry points at $59,000 and $57,000, respectively.

JU的分析基于实现的价格指标，该指标评估了比特币持有人的平均成本基础。根据他的数据，比特币在ETF托管人和主要机构参与者中的实现价格约为89,000美元，而Binance贸易商和矿业公司的平均入口点分别为59,000美元和57,000美元。

Historically, when prices fell below the breakeven level for large miners, it marked the final leg of a market correction before a new rally began. Ju cited past downturns in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018 as examples of this pattern repeating.

从历史上看，当价格低于大型矿工的收支平衡水平时，它标志着在新的集会开始之前的市场更正的最后一站。 Ju引用了2022年5月，2020年3月和2018年11月的经济低迷，作为这种模式重复的例子。

Elsewhere, some analysts warn that tightening fiat liquidity and uncertainty around U.S. economic policies could put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

在其他地方，一些分析师警告说，加强美国经济政策周围的菲亚特流动性和不确定性可能会给比特币的价格下降压力。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently suggested that Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000–$75,000 range due to disappointment in the Trump administration’s stance on the asset. He argued that the key driver of this decline would be investors’ realization that the current U.S. president’s policies on Bitcoin are largely unchanged from those of his predecessors.

Bitmex前首席执行官Arthur Hayes最近建议，由于特朗普政府对资产的立场感到失望，比特币可能会降至70,000至75,000美元。他认为，这种下降的主要推动力将是投资者意识到，现任美国总统对比特币的政策在很大程度上与他的前任的政策没有改变。

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors and the post-halving cycle also play a significant role in Bitcoin’s potential retracement.

同时，宏观经济因素和备距后周期在比特币的潜在反回中也起着重要作用。

CryptoQuant’s Timo Oinonen remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, pointing out that following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63%, leaving room for further gains.

CryptoQuant的Timo Oinonen对比特币的长期轨迹保持乐观，指出，在2024年4月减半之后，比特币的价格仅上涨了63％，为进一步的增长留出了空间。

“When looking at BTC’s halving of 2020 and its subsequent spot price peak, the asset climbed a total of 686% between the 11th of May 2020 and the 8th of November 2021. Between the latest halving on 20th April of 2024 and the recent ATH, BTC only ascended 63%,” he noted, highlighting the historical tendency for Bitcoin to rally in Q4.

“当观察BTC的2020年减半和随后的现货价格峰值时，资产在2020年5月11日至2021年11月8日之间，总计攀升了686％。 BTC仅上升了63％，”他指出，强调了比特币在第四季度集会的历史趋势。