比特币（BTC）多头将将此视为大幅上涨的开始，但存在一个问题

比特币必须从当前水平大幅上涨才能达到 10 万美元的吸引力。即使比特币 (BTC) 的价格达到每枚 15 万美元，大多数人也会认为通过选择合适的股票可以实现这一涨幅。

Bitcoin has to go up a long way from current levels to be attractive at $100,000. Even if bitcoin (BTC) was to hit $150,000 a coin, that’s a sort of increase most people would consider achievable in picking the right stock. To get to the sort of multi-bagger profit, bitcoin would have to rise well on the way to the legendary target of $1 million. As far as I’m concerned this is not going to happen.

比特币必须从目前的水平大幅上涨才能达到 10 万美元的吸引力。即使比特币 (BTC) 达到每枚 15 万美元，大多数人也会认为通过选择合适的股票可以实现这一涨幅。为了获得这种多重利润，比特币必须大幅上涨，达到传说中的 100 万美元目标。就我而言，这不会发生。

The following projection is a sketch of why a big move up seems unlikely and where I see the top at the moment:

以下预测概述了为什么似乎不太可能出现大幅上涨以及我目前看到的顶部位置：

The bitcoin chart: a projection for the top

比特币图表：顶部预测

The peak trend line gives an indication of where the top can be and it’s easy to use the halvening logic to suggest $120,000 is a doable limit to this cycle’s top. Bitcoin bulls will simply see this as the beginning of a move much higher, but there is a problem. At $1 million a bitcoin the implied market cap of bitcoin is $20 trillion dollars, or 125% of the market cap of the Magnificent 7 top U.S. stocks, or nearly half of the whole S&P 500. Bubbles can do crazy things, with the Japanese Emperor’s palace theoretically being worth all of California back in the 1980s for instance. This, however, is not on the cards.

峰值趋势线给出了顶部可能在哪里的指示，并且很容易使用减半逻辑来表明 120,000 美元是本周期顶部的可行限制。比特币多头只会将此视为大幅上涨的开始，但存在一个问题。以每枚比特币 100 万美元计算，比特币的隐含市值为 20 万亿美元，占美股 7 强市值的 125%，或整个标准普尔 500 指数的近一半。泡沫可以做出疯狂的事情，日本天皇的泡沫可以做出疯狂的事情。例如，理论上，在 20 世纪 80 年代，这座宫殿的价值相当于整个加州的价值。然而，这并不可能。

So now the call is, are we around the top or are we in a foothill of this crypto cycle? I’m in the camp that believes we are near the end of the run. This might seem sad but it’s not over for those looking for multi-bagger crypto opportunities.

所以现在的问题是，我们是在这个加密货币周期的顶峰还是山麓？我相信我们已经接近终点。这可能看起来令人悲伤，但对于那些寻找多袋加密货币机会的人来说，这还没有结束。

Last two cycles this was exactly the time when you could double your winnings and do it with a fraction of the profit from the mainstream crypto position. In the last cycle I got out at $40,000 having got in dollar cost averaging at the previous low at low four-figure levels. I took my profit and took 20% of my win and played the altcoins for as much again in profit. This is the point where many will say, “You could have had 500% more profit if you had played it all.” This is correct but a few will know that that is not the way to play and keep your winnings, but instead the way to go and lose it all nine times out of ten. You only make what you get to keep and Mr Martingale is not your friend. All this aside, now is the time to trade a little to make a lot, while keeping the bulk of your profits safe.

过去两个周期正是您可以用主流加密货币头寸的一小部分利润实现双倍盈利的时候。在上一个周期中，我以 40,000 美元的价格退出，而平均美元成本则处于之前低点的四位数水平。我获利了结，拿走了赢钱的 20%，然后再次玩山寨币以获取同样多的利润。正是在这一点上，许多人会说：“如果您全部玩完，您的利润可能会增加 500%。”这是正确的，但有些人会知道，这不是玩游戏并保住奖金的方法，而是十有八九输掉奖金的方法。你只赚你能保留的东西，马丁格尔先生不是你的朋友。抛开这一切不谈，现在是时候进行少量交易以赚取大量利润，同时保证大部分利润的安全。

The action is on Solana and Base and is the new AI token scene. Make no mistake, this is nothing but gambling, or “technical trading” if you like, and in my opinion the chance of any of these tokens turning into businesses is no more likely than any Pet.com dotcom darlings of yore. However, they will go up like a rocket and of course down like a rock just as fast.

该动作发生在 Solana 和 Base 上，是新的 AI 代币场景。毫无疑问，这只不过是赌博，或者如果你愿意的话，也可以说是“技术交易”，在我看来，这些代币中的任何一个变成企业的可能性并不比以前的任何 Pet.com 网络宠儿更大。然而，它们会像火箭一样上升，当然也会像岩石一样快速下降。

It’s a “stock pickers” game and I won’t tip any tokens as they will all be nitroglycerin, but if you think bitcoin will jump 20%-50% up from here, this crazy stuff will go x10 that, if only for days or perhaps weeks. That is where the crypto dream is, for a few weeks or perhaps months.

这是一个“选股”游戏，我不会给任何代币小费，因为它们都是硝化甘油，但如果你认为比特币会从这里上涨 20%-50%，那么这个疯狂的东西将会上涨 10 倍，哪怕只是几天或者也许是几周。这就是加密货币梦想的所在，持续几周甚至几个月。

Meanwhile for those who lack the ‘Degen’ gene there are the second line old altcoins. A final run on bitcoin will be magnified in these coins and as venerable names you can at least be assured they have been seasoned a little by time. All in all, cryptos will move indiscriminately with bitcoin and for those who want to play the end of days for this cycle, the beloved crypto pop will be in the “assets” below the bitcoin crown. In the final vertical, however weak or mighty, the junior tiers will be where the insane returns live.

与此同时，对于那些缺乏“Degen”基因的人来说，还有二线旧山寨币。比特币的最终运行将在这些硬币中放大，作为令人尊敬的名字，您至少可以放心，它们已经随着时间的推移而变得更加成熟。总而言之，加密货币将与比特币一起无差别地移动，对于那些想在这个周期中玩到末日的人来说，受人喜爱的加密货币流行将属于比特币皇冠以下的“资产”。在最后的垂直领域，无论弱小或强大，初级级别都将是疯狂回归的地方。

For me, it’s for the birds, but for many, it’s the dream.

对我来说，这是为了鸟类，但对许多人来说，这是梦想。