进入美国大选期间，比特币（BTC）以其表现和独特模式吸引人们的关注

进入美国大选期间，比特币（BTC）以其表现和独特模式继续吸引人们的关注。

Bitcoin (BTC) price movements throughout the U.S. election period have drawn attention, particularly with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for October closely aligning with historical election years.

整个美国大选期间的比特币 (BTC) 价格走势引起了人们的关注，特别是 10 月份的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 与历史选举年密切相关。

According to data shared by an on-chain analyst, BTC’s RSI readings in the past week before elections were notably close. For instance, in October 2012, RSI was recorded at 65.55, followed by 65.42 in 2016, 65.45 in 2020, and 65.01 in 2024 (6 days till close).

根据链上分析师分享的数据，选举前过去一周 BTC 的 RSI 读数非常接近。例如，2012 年 10 月，RSI 为 65.55，随后 2016 年为 65.42，2020 年为 65.45，2024 年为 65.01（截至收盘前 6 天）。

This similarity sparked speculation among some analysts, who suggested that, based on this historical pattern, another upward move could be on the horizon, especially if BTC maintains positive sentiment post-election.

这种相似性引发了一些分析师的猜测，他们认为，根据这一历史模式，另一次上涨可能即将到来，特别是如果比特币在选举后保持积极情绪的话。

As of late October, BTC’s price remained above the channel it had broken out from earlier this month. By holding this level, Bitcoin sustained its bullish momentum despite recent negative events.

截至 10 月底，比特币的价格仍高于本月初突破的通道。尽管最近发生了负面事件，但通过保持这一水平，比特币仍保持了看涨势头。

According to market analysts, this positioning could support Bitcoin’s next test toward the $70,000 level. However, BTC could face potential volatility from the upcoming elections, with some predicting price fluctuations depending on the election results and any impact on the market.

市场分析师表示，这一定位可能会支持比特币下一次测试 70,000 美元水平。然而，比特币可能面临即将到来的选举带来的潜在波动，一些人预测价格波动取决于选举结果和对市场的影响。

Additionally, recent geopolitical tensions have also influenced price trends. Following Israel’s recent military actions, BTC experienced sharp but temporary drops, highlighting its tendency to react to global events.

此外，最近的地缘政治紧张局势也影响了价格趋势。在以色列最近的军事行动之后，比特币经历了短暂但急剧的下跌，凸显了其对全球事件做出反应的倾向。

For instance, after Israel’s conflict with Iran escalated earlier in the month, BTC briefly fell by over 4%, only to rebound by nearly 6.6% within hours.

例如，本月早些时候以色列与伊朗冲突升级后，比特币一度下跌超过 4%，但数小时内反弹近 6.6%。

Such reactions demonstrated Bitcoin’s capability to recover quickly after brief downturns, providing optimism for continued resilience.

这些反应表明比特币有能力在短暂的低迷后迅速复苏，为持续的弹性提供了乐观的前景。

Bitcoin ETF Inflows, BlackRock Holdings, and Price Speculation

比特币 ETF 流入、贝莱德控股和价格投机

Bitcoin’s potential for a price rally received further support from substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Since October 10, Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly accumulated over $3 billion in investments, indicating strong interest among institutional investors.

比特币 ETF 的大量资金流入进一步支撑了比特币价格上涨的潜力。据报道，自 10 月 10 日以来，比特币 ETF 的投资已累计超过 30 亿美元，这表明机构投资者的浓厚兴趣。

This large influx of funds has reinforced market speculation that Bitcoin could approach the $100,000 mark in the near future. Analysts pointed to these ETF inflows as a sign of strong institutional demand, driving optimism about BTC’s potential for a new breakout.

大量资金涌入，加剧了市场对比特币可能在不久的将来逼近10万美元大关的猜测。分析师指出，ETF 的流入表明机构需求强劲，这推动了人们对 BTC 新突破潜力的乐观情绪。

While many investors have quickly attributed these ETF inflows to asset purchases by giants like BlackRock, analysts have clarified that spot ETFs don’t operate on a same-day buy-and-hold model.

尽管许多投资者很快将这些 ETF 资金流入归因于贝莱德等巨头的资产购买，但分析师已澄清，现货 ETF 并不采用当日买入并持有的模式。

Instead, these investments often follow a 30-day settlement process. However, BlackRock’s holdings saw consistent increases, with the firm adding 17,111 BTC to its portfolio in October.

相反，这些投资通常遵循 30 天的结算流程。然而，贝莱德的持有量持续增加，该公司 10 月份在其投资组合中增加了 17,111 比特币。

With these additions, BlackRock’s total holdings now exceed 400,000 BTC, underscoring its substantial involvement in the market.

通过这些增持，贝莱德的总持有量现已超过 400,000 枚 BTC，凸显了其对市场的大力参与。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Growth Trends and the Power Law Debate

比特币的长期增长趋势和幂律争论

Beyond short-term fluctuations, some analysts have examined Bitcoin’s growth trajectory through the lens of the “Bitcoin Power Law.”

除了短期波动之外，一些分析师还通过“比特币幂律”的视角审视了比特币的增长轨迹。

This model suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term price movement follows a growth curve similar to early internet adoption. Some projections indicate that this pattern might persist for another 10 to 15 years before potentially shifting to a more stabilized growth model.

该模型表明，比特币的长期价格走势遵循类似于早期互联网采用的增长曲线。一些预测表明，这种模式可能会再持续 10 到 15 年，然后可能转向更稳定的增长模式。

Though the Power Law debate remains speculative, it highlights the strong long-term interest among BTC supporters.

尽管关于幂律的争论仍然是推测性的，但它凸显了 BTC 支持者强烈的长期兴趣。

Despite differing views on the Power Law, analysts agree that Bitcoin’s trajectory still appears robust, with significant growth potential as adoption continues globally. This long-term outlook reflects Bitcoin’s resilience as it solidifies its role as a key digital asset.

尽管对幂律有不同的看法，但分析师一致认为，比特币的发展轨迹仍然强劲，随着全球范围内的不断采用，比特币具有巨大的增长潜力。这一长期前景反映了比特币的弹性，因为它巩固了其作为关键数字资产的作用。

BTC’s Market Position and Investor Optimism for Post-Election Rally

比特币的市场地位和投资者对选举后反弹的乐观态度

Bitcoin’s recent moves in price and its historical RSI readings have fostered optimism for a post-election rally. While election outcomes pose potential risks, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain strong support levels has encouraged market confidence.

比特币最近的价格走势及其历史 RSI 读数增强了人们对大选后反弹的乐观情绪。虽然选举结果带来潜在风险，但比特币维持强劲支持水平的能力提振了市场信心。

Bitcoin’s journey remains a focal point in the market as it enters the election season with key support levels intact and robust institutional interest. With BTC’s RSI echoing previous election cycles and ETF inflows showing bullish signs, many investors speculate that BTC could see higher levels soon, adding further momentum to its long-term trajectory.

随着比特币进入选举季节，关键支撑位完好无损，机构兴趣浓厚，比特币的旅程仍然是市场的焦点。随着 BTC 的 RSI 与之前的选举周期相呼应，并且 ETF 资金流入显示出看涨迹象，许多投资者推测 BTC 可能很快会达到更高水平，为其长期轨迹增添进一步动力。