比特币（BTC）可能正在接近一个关键的转折点，原因如下

经过数周的动荡后，有迹象表明比特币可能正在接近一个关键的转折点。

After weeks of turbulence, signs are emerging that Bitcoin might be approaching a crucial turning point.

经过数周的动荡后，有迹象表明比特币可能正在接近一个关键的转折点。

US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net inflows of $28.7 million on September 9, marking a reversal after a prolonged outflow streak that saw $1.2 billion leave the market. This is the first net inflow since late August, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price rebound of 6%.

9 月 9 日，美国上市的比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 净流入 2870 万美元，标志着在 12 亿美元离开市场的长期资金流出之后出现逆转。这是自8月底以来的首次净流入，恰逢比特币价格反弹6%。

Bitcoin Buy Orders Get Filled, Signaling Local Bottom

比特币买单被填满，标志着局部底部

The renewed inflows suggest growing interest among professional investors. While ETFs have suffered since August 27, the return of inflows could be an early indicator of shifting sentiment. September is traditionally bearish for Bitcoin, but this uptick in ETF demand provides a potential counterpoint.

资金重新流入表明专业投资者的兴趣日益浓厚。尽管 ETF 自 8 月 27 日以来一直遭受损失，但资金流入的回归可能是情绪转变的早期指标。传统上，9 月对比特币来说是利空的，但 ETF 需求的上升提供了一个潜在的反面。

“The net flow turned positive after 8 days of heavy outflows. Yesterday’s only outflows belonged to Grayscale (GBTC) and BlackRock (IBIT), the 2 largest US Bitcoin ETFs,” analysts at SpotOnChain said.

“经过8天的大量资金流出后，净流量转正。昨天唯一的资金流出属于美国两大比特币 ETF Grayscale (GBTC) 和 BlackRock (IBIT)，”SpotOnChain 分析师表示。

Meanwhile, a prominent whale on Bitfinex has been aggressively buying Bitcoin, accumulating around 450 BTC daily. This move comes as Bitcoin’s price hovers below $60,000, a level at which the whale appears confident in the asset’s long-term potential.

与此同时，Bitfinex 上的一只著名鲸鱼一直在积极购买比特币，每天积累约 450 BTC。这一举措发生之际，比特币的价格徘徊在 60,000 美元以下，鲸鱼似乎对该资产的长期潜力充满信心。

Accumulation patterns on Bitfinex, where these trades are taking place, show a clear dominance in the order book, signaling a strong belief in Bitcoin’s resilience.

这些交易发生的 Bitfinex 上的积累模式在订单簿中显示出明显的主导地位，表明人们对比特币的弹性有强烈的信心。

At the same time, long-term holders (LTH) are increasing their Bitcoin positions. Data reveals a net increase in LTH positions, historically a bullish signal. When long-term investors accumulate, it often indicates confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future growth potential.

与此同时，长期持有者（LTH）正在增加比特币头寸。数据显示LTH持仓净增加，从历史上看是看涨信号。当长期投资者积累时，往往表明对加密货币未来增长潜力的信心。

The stability provided by LTH accumulation may help anchor Bitcoin’s price and set the stage for a rebound.

LTH 积累提供的稳定性可能有助于锚定比特币的价格并为反弹奠定基础。

Despite the rising buying pressure, analysts at Bernstein and even seasoned trader Peter Brandt remain cautious. Brandt sees a 65% chance that Bitcoin could drop below $40,000 before reaching any new highs. Brandt’s technical analysis places probabilities of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 at 20% and surging to $130,000 by September 2025 at 15%.

尽管购买压力不断上升，伯恩斯坦的分析师甚至经验丰富的交易员彼得·勃兰特仍保持谨慎态度。 Brandt 认为，比特币在达到新高之前有 65% 的可能性会跌破 40,000 美元。 Brandt 的技术分析认为，比特币触及 80,000 美元的可能性为 20%，到 2025 年 9 月飙升至 130,000 美元的可能性为 15%。

Meanwhile, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said that the election outcome, whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris prevails, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s future course.

与此同时，伯恩斯坦分析师高塔姆·楚加尼 (Gautam Chhugani) 表示，选举结果，无论是唐纳德·特朗普还是卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，都可能对比特币的未来走势产生重大影响。

“We expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide. We expect Bitcoin to claim back new highs, in case of a Trump win and by Q4, we expect Bitcoin to reach close to $80,000-$90,000 range. However, if Harris wins, we expect Bitcoin to break the current floor around $50,000 and test the $30,000-$40,000 range,” Chhugani explained.

“我们预计这两种政治结果之间的差异将会很大。我们预计，如果特朗普获胜，比特币将重新创下新高，到第四季度，我们预计比特币将达到接近 80,000 美元至 90,000 美元的范围。然而，如果哈里斯获胜，我们预计比特币将突破当前 50,000 美元左右的底部，并测试 30,000 美元至 40,000 美元的区间，”Chhugani 解释道。

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

了解更多：比特币 (BTC) 价格预测 2024/2025/2030

As ETFs, whales, and LTHs continue to accumulate, the market watches closely for any signs that Bitcoin may be near its bottom. For now, uncertainty lingers, but the growing buying pressure suggests optimism is brewing.

随着 ETF、鲸鱼和 LTH 的不断积累，市场密切关注比特币可能已接近底部的任何迹象。目前，不确定性依然存在，但不断增长的购买压力表明乐观情绪正在酝酿。