比特币的熊市信号：崩溃即将到来吗？

比特币跌破关键水平，引发熊市担忧。这是加密货币冬天的开始吗？

Bitcoin's Bear Signal: Is a Collapse Incoming?

比特币的熊市信号：崩溃即将到来吗？

Bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000 has sparked concerns about a potential bear market. Is this just a temporary setback, or are we staring down the barrel of a crypto collapse?

比特币最近跌破 10 万美元，引发了人们对潜在熊市的担忧。这只是暂时的挫折，还是我们正在盯着加密货币崩溃的桶？

The 365-Day Moving Average: A Line in the Sand

365 天移动平均线：沙中线

According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's drop below its 365-day Moving Average (MA) is a critical bear signal. Historically, this level has acted as a confirmation of bear market starts, as seen in 2022. Moreno warns that Bitcoin needs to quickly reclaim the $102,000 level to mitigate further risk.

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 表示，比特币跌破 365 天移动平均线（MA）是一个关键的看跌信号。从历史上看，这一水平一直是熊市开始的确认，正如 2022 年所见。莫雷诺警告说，比特币需要迅速收复 102,000 美元的水平，以减轻进一步的风险。

Liquidation Tsunami and Market Sentiment

清算海啸和市场情绪

The recent price drop triggered a massive liquidation event, wiping out over $2 billion in the last 24 hours. While some traders are confidently buying the dip, on-chain analytics firm Santiment notes a sharp increase in bearish social media commentary on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

最近的价格下跌引发了大规模的清算事件，在过去 24 小时内蒸发了超过 20 亿美元。尽管一些交易员信心十足地逢低买入，但链上分析公司 Santiment 指出，社交媒体上对比特币和以太坊的悲观评论急剧增加。

Altcoins Feeling the Pressure

山寨币感受到压力

The bearish sentiment isn't limited to Bitcoin. XRP, despite outperforming many other cryptocurrencies in the recent bull market, has triggered a bearish crossover of the LMACD indicator on the monthly timeframe. Historically, this signal has preceded significant price drops for XRP.

看跌情绪不仅限于比特币。尽管 XRP 在最近的牛市中表现优于许多其他加密货币，但在月度时间范围内引发了 LMACD 指标的看跌交叉。从历史上看，这一信号先于 XRP 价格大幅下跌。

Analyst Outlook: A Bumpy Road Ahead

分析师展望：未来之路崎岖不平

Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, anticipates Bitcoin trading within a $94,000–$118,000 range in the near term, reflecting subdued ETF inflows and a measured recovery. While there's potential for recovery, the market remains cautious.

Bitget Wallet 研究分析师 Lacie 张 预计，短期内比特币交易价格将在 94,000 美元至 118,000 美元之间，反映出 ETF 资金流入减少和复苏缓慢。尽管存在复苏潜力，但市场仍保持谨慎。

So, Collapse Incoming?

那么，崩溃即将来临？

Whether or not this bear signal will lead to a full-blown collapse remains to be seen. The market is volatile, and anything can happen. Keep an eye on that 365-day MA! Until then, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! It might be a wild ride!

这一看跌信号是否会导致全面崩盘还有待观察。市场瞬息万变，任何事情都有可能发生。密切关注 365 天的移动平均线！在那之前，系好安全带，加密货币爱好者！这可能是一次疯狂的旅程！