比特币的平衡法：BTC价格，长期持有人和$ 10.1美元的问题

长期比特币持有者正在利润，影响了BTC的价格。这是临时倾角还是更大校正的迹象？检查趋势和下一步。

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, and long-term holders (LTHs) are adding to the drama. After hitting record highs, BTC is now navigating a tricky landscape where profit-taking and market adjustments are the name of the game. Let's break down what's happening with Bitcoin, its price, and the actions of those patient HODLers.

比特币一直在疯狂旅行，长期持有者（LTHS）正在增加戏剧。在达到纪录高点之后，BTC现在正在浏览一个棘手的景观，其中获利和市场调整是游戏的名称。让我们分解比特币，价格和那些患者杂物的行为的情况。

Long-Term Holders Cashing In

长期持有人兑现

Recently, long-term Bitcoin holders have been stepping up their liquidations. On a Friday, they offloaded a significant amount of BTC, marking one of the largest single-day outflows of the year. This activity, as noted by Glassnode, shows that even the most steadfast believers are taking some chips off the table.

最近，长期比特币持有人正在加强清算。在星期五，他们卸载了大量的BTC，这标志着一年中最大的单天外出之一。正如玻璃节点所指出的那样，这项活动表明，即使是最坚定的信徒也在桌子上拿走一些筹码。

The data reveals a jump in the 14-day moving average of coins spent by LTHs, reaching levels not seen since January. This suggests a consistent selling pressure from wallets that have been dormant for quite some time.

数据显示，LTHS所花费的硬币的14天移动平均值有所增加，达到自一月以来未见的水平。这表明，在相当长的一段时间内，从钱包上卖出了一致的销售压力。

Why the Profit-Taking?

为什么要赚钱？

So, what's driving this behavior? A big part of it comes down to investor psychology. Think about it: how many assets trade at $100,000 a pop? Hitting that six-figure mark can make even the most seasoned investor feel like it's a good time to cash in. There's a psychological barrier at play, where $100,000 per BTC feels like a premium valuation, prompting profit-taking.

那么，是什么推动这种行为？它的很大一部分归功于投资者心理学。考虑一下：每次流行价值100,000美元的交易多少资产？击中六位数的标记也可以使最调味的投资者感觉像是赚钱的好时机。在发挥着心理障碍，每BTC $ 100,000感觉就像是高级估值，促使利润获取。

This also suggests that the market needs time to adjust to BTC trading consistently around the $100K level. We're likely to see range-bound trading as investors acclimatize to this new normal.

这也表明，市场需要时间来适应BTC的交易，始终在10万美元的水平左右。随着投资者适应这一新常态，我们很可能会看到界限贸易的交易。

The Metaplanet Factor: A Bold Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Metaplanet因子：大胆的比特币国库策略

While some are selling, others are doubling down. Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed firm, recently secured shareholder approval to issue hundreds of millions of new shares to expand its Bitcoin treasury. This move could raise close to $900 million, fueling an aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

有些卖出时，有些人则加倍。 Metaplanet是一家上市公司，最近获得了股东批准，以发行数亿股新股份，以扩大其比特币财政部。此举可能会筹集近9亿美元，从而促进了一种积极的公司比特币积累策略。

Metaplanet already controls a substantial amount of Bitcoin, worth over $2 billion. By modeling themselves after MicroStrategy, they're betting big on Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This bold strategy highlights the contrasting approaches in the market: some cashing out, others loading up.

Metaplanet已经控制了大量比特币，价值超过20亿美元。通过在MicroStrategy之后对自己进行建模，他们将大量投注于比特币作为储备资产。这种大胆的策略强调了市场上的对比方法：有些兑现，有些则加载。

Market Dynamics and Potential Price Swings

市场动态和潜在价格波动

Glassnode's analysis points out key tactical levels to watch. Support lies in the $107k–$108.9k range, while potential resistance sits near $113.6k. A deeper downside target lurks around $93k–$95k if selling pressure continues.

GlassNode的分析指出了要观看的关键战术水平。支持在$ 107K - $ 108.9K的范围内，而潜在的阻力为113.6万美元。一个更深层次的下行目标潜伏在93,000美元左右，如果销售压力仍在继续。

The interplay between LTH selling and ETF flows is crucial. Large distributions from LTHs, combined with negative ETF flows, can amplify price movements. However, as Glassnode notes, the current spending is still within the cycle’s “normal” range, suggesting choppy trading rather than a full-blown correction.

LTH销售与ETF流量之间的相互作用至关重要。 LTHS的大型分布，结合负ETF流，可以扩大价格变动。但是，正如GlassNode指出的那样，当前的支出仍在周期的“正常”范围内，暗示着波涛汹涌的交易，而不是全面的校正。

Looking Ahead: Choppy Waters or Clear Skies?

向前看：波涛汹涌的水还是晴朗的天空？

Despite the recent distribution, the overall trend since late 2024 remains upward. However, analysts warn that a corrective leg towards $75k–$97k is possible if momentum stalls and macro jitters persist. The market is showing increased sensitivity to macro events and ETF flows, making for a potentially volatile ride.

尽管最近分配，但自2024年底以来的总体趋势仍在上升。但是，分析师警告说，如果动量摊位和宏观摇摆不定，则可能是$ 75K - $ 97K。市场显示出对宏事件和ETF流动的敏感性提高，从而实现了易于波动的骑行。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最终想法：扣紧，毛cup！

Bitcoin's journey is never boring. Long-term holders are playing their part, influencing price dynamics and market sentiment. Whether we're in for a period of consolidation or another surge, one thing's for sure: the Bitcoin story is far from over. So, keep an eye on those key levels, stay informed, and remember, in the world of crypto, anything can happen. And if you're feeling overwhelmed, just remember the golden rule: HODL... or maybe take some profits. The choice is yours, New Yorker!

比特币的旅程永远不会无聊。长期持有人正在发挥自己的作用，影响了价格动态和市场情绪。无论我们是整合一段时间还是其他激增，都可以肯定的是：比特币故事还远远没有结束。因此，请密切关注这些关键水平，保持了解，并记住在加密货币世界中，任何事情都可能发生。而且，如果您感到不知所措，请记住黄金法则：hodl ...或可能获得一些利润。选择是您的，纽约客！