历史数据显示雪崩即将冲过索拉纳

链上数据表明，最近在 2023 年 11 月出现的 Avalanche (AVAX) 的社会主导地位较低，历史上一直先于价格大幅上涨。分析表明，如果 AVAX 遵循之前周期中观察到的类似模式，短期内可能会飙升至 51.45 美元，可能超越 Solana (SOL)。

Avalanche (AVAX) Poised for Significant Price Surge, Potentially Surpassing Solana (SOL)

Avalanche (AVAX) 价格将大幅上涨，有可能超越 Solana (SOL)

Recent on-chain data analysis reveals that Avalanche (AVAX) is currently at a pivotal point, indicating potential for a substantial price increase. Historical trends suggest that a similar scenario has previously led to a remarkable 4-fold increase in its value.

最近的链上数据分析显示，Avalanche（AVAX）目前正处于关键点，表明价格有可能大幅上涨。历史趋势表明，类似的情况此前曾导致其价值显着增长 4 倍。

According to data compiled by Santiment and analyzed by AMBCrypto, AVAX's social dominance has recently reached its lowest level since November 2023, currently standing at 0.205%. This metric, which measures the relative frequency of discussions about a token compared to the top 100 cryptocurrencies, has historically served as a significant indicator of future price movements. Notably, the last time social dominance for AVAX hit this low, the token's price surged from $11.62 to $48.93 within a period of less than two months.

根据 Santiment 编制并由 AMBCrypto 分析的数据，AVAX 的社交统治力最近达到 2023 年 11 月以来的最低水平，目前为 0.205%。该指标衡量代币与前 100 种加密货币相比讨论的相对频率，历来都是未来价格走势的重要指标。值得注意的是，上次 AVAX 的社会主导地位跌至如此低点时，该代币的价格在不到两个月的时间内从 11.62 美元飙升至 48.93 美元。

AVAX's Potential to Outperform SOL

AVAX 超越 SOL 的潜力

During that period, AVAX and Solana (SOL) shared a close parallel in terms of price appreciation. However, despite both tokens experiencing setbacks compared to their Q4 2023 performance, SOL has maintained an edge over AVAX in Q1 2024. Over the past 90 days, SOL's price has increased by a significant 64.43%, while AVAX has recorded a more modest 18.93% gain.

在此期间，AVAX 和 Solana (SOL) 在价格上涨方面非常相似。然而，尽管这两种代币与 2023 年第四季度的表现相比都遭遇了挫折，但 SOL 在 2024 年第一季度仍然保持着相对于 AVAX 的优势。在过去 90 天里，SOL 的价格大幅上涨了 64.43%，而 AVAX 的价格则上涨了 18.93%。获得。

Solana Ecosystem Challenges

Solana 生态系统挑战

However, the decline in AVAX's social dominance could be a catalyst for a reversal of fortunes. Historical patterns suggest that AVAX may be poised for a significant rally, potentially reaching $50.60 within the coming weeks. This is supported by the token's current price of $37.31, which indicates ample room for upward movement.

然而，AVAX 社会主导地位的下降可能成为命运逆转的催化剂。历史模式表明 AVAX 可能会大幅上涨，可能在未来几周内达到 50.60 美元。代币当前价格 37.31 美元支撑了这一点，这表明还有充足的上涨空间。

Beyond the price performance of their native tokens, the Solana ecosystem has faced challenges in other areas as well. For example, dogwifhat (WIF), the leading memecoin on Solana, has experienced a 37% price increase in the last 30 days. In contrast, Coq Inu (COQ), the leading memecoin on Avalanche, has declined by 34% during the same period. This divergence in memecoin performance indicates a higher level of interest in SOL compared to AVAX.

除了原生代币的性价比之外，Solana 生态系统在其他领域也面临着挑战。例如，Solana 上领先的模因币 Dogwifhat (WIF) 在过去 30 天内价格上涨了 37%。相比之下，Avalanche 上领先的模因币 Coq Inu (COQ) 同期下跌了 34%。 memecoin 表现的这种差异表明，与 AVAX 相比，人们对 SOL 的兴趣更高。

Technical Analysis Points to Upside Potential

技术分析指出上涨潜力

Despite the recent setbacks, AVAX appears to offer a more compelling buying opportunity than SOL. Traders may find the token's current valuation attractive, potentially leading to increased liquidity and upward price pressure.

尽管最近遭遇挫折，但 AVAX 似乎提供了比 SOL 更有吸引力的购买机会。交易者可能会发现该代币当前的估值具有吸引力，可能导致流动性增加和价格上涨压力。

However, both SOL and AVAX face negative sentiment in the market. AVAX's Weighted Sentiment stands at -0.619, while SOL's reading is even lower at -1.023. This suggests that traders are more optimistic about AVAX's short-term bullish prospects than SOL's.

然而，SOL 和 AVAX 都面临着市场的负面情绪。 AVAX 的加权情绪为 -0.619，而 SOL 的读数甚至更低，为 -1.023。这表明交易者对 AVAX 的短期看涨前景比 SOL 更加乐观。

On the technical front, AVAX has established support at $32.70, preventing a further decline. However, the token faces resistance at $38.58, which has temporarily halted its upward trajectory.

技术方面，AVAX 已在 32.70 美元建立支撑，防止进一步下跌。然而，该代币面临 38.58 美元的阻力，暂时停止了上涨轨迹。

Indicators such as the Awesome Oscillator (AO) currently suggest a positive momentum for AVAX, but the appearance of a red histogram bar on the AO warns that upward momentum may be waning. If this trend continues, AVAX could retrace to $35.01. However, a rebound at this level could trigger a significant increase, with a potential target of $51.45, representing a 68.62% surge.

目前，诸如真棒震荡指标 (AO) 等指标表明 AVAX 呈现积极势头，但 AO 上红色柱状图的出现警告上行势头可能正在减弱。如果这种趋势持续下去，AVAX 可能会回升至 35.01 美元。不过，在此水平反弹可能会引发大幅上涨，潜在目标位为 51.45 美元，涨幅达 68.62%。

Conclusion

结论

Based on this analysis, we can conclude that AVAX presents a solid upside potential. It is likely to outperform SOL in the short term, potentially leading to a market cap increase. However, it is important to recognize that the long-term performance of both tokens may not diverge significantly. While AVAX may experience notable growth, reaching SOL's current market cap is highly unlikely.

基于此分析，我们可以得出结论，AVAX 具有坚实的上涨潜力。短期内它的表现可能会超过 SOL，从而可能导致市值增加。然而，重要的是要认识到这两种代币的长期表现可能不会出现显着差异。虽然 AVAX 可能会经历显着增长，但达到 SOL 目前的市值的可能性极小。