本文是根据Wanwu Island共享会议的Waterdrip Capital创始人Dashan发表的主题演讲的。

宏观环境正在恶化 - 危机正在形成新订单

This article is compiled from the keynote speech given by Dashan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wanwu Island Sharing Session.

本文是根据Wanwu Island共享会议的Waterdrip Capital创始人Dashan发表的主题演讲的。

As the global economic landscape undergoes rapid transformation, entrepreneurs in the Web3 space are charting new courses and exploring innovative models for sustainable growth. In this context, Dashan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, recently shared his insights on the current market environment, entrepreneurial opportunities, and the future trends of capital integration with a focus on crypto startups.

随着全球经济格局经历快速的转型，Web3领域的企业家正在绘制新课程并探索创新的可持续增长模型。在这种情况下，水力资本的创始人达珊（Dashan）最近分享了他对当前市场环境，企业家机会以及资本整合趋势的见解，重点是加密初创公司。

Here are some highlights from his speech:

这是他演讲中的一些亮点：

1. Macro Environment Deterioration - Crisis Forming New Order

1。宏观环境恶化 - 危机形成新秩序

Since Trump returned to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have continued to turmoil the global market. Among them, one of the measures that caused the greatest shock was the escalation of tariff policies: from April 5, 2025, the United States will impose a unified 10% “base tariff” on all imported goods, and impose higher “reciprocal tariffs” on 60 countries including China and Vietnam (the tariff on China was once raised to 125%). In the short term, Trump’s tariff stick caused huge fluctuations in the global market: U.S. bonds suffered a sell-off, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to more than 4.5%, the largest single-week increase in 20 years; U.S. stocks fluctuated violently, once approaching a circuit breaker; the U.S. dollar index continued to fall and hit the largest daily decline in several years. Although the United States subsequently announced that it would suspend the imposition of new tariffs on some allied countries in exchange for a respite, investors are still full of worries about future uncertainties, and the global financial system seems to have entered a “chaotic era.”

自从特朗普返回白宫以来，一系列意想不到的经济和政治措施继续在全球市场上动荡。其中，引起最大震惊的措施之一是关税政策的升级：从2025年4月5日起，美国将对所有进口商品施加统一的10％“基本关税”，并将更高的“相互关税”对包括中国和越南在内的60个国家征收（中国的关税曾经提高到125％）。在短期内，特朗普的关税棒在全球市场上引起了巨大的波动：美国债券遭受了抛售，美国10年的美国财政收益率飙升至4.5％以上，这是20年来最大的单周；美国库存猛烈波动，一旦接近断路器；美元指数继续下降，几年来每日下降最大。尽管美国随后宣布，它将中止对一些盟国的新关税以换取喘息的机会，但投资者仍然对未来的不确定性感到担忧，而全球金融体系似乎已经进入了“混乱的时代”。

The old international economic system centered on the United States established after World War II (such as the Bretton Woods system and the WTO framework) is facing the risk of collapse: the rise of emerging economies has weakened the relative advantages of the United States, the huge debts and fiscal deficits accumulated by the United States over a long period of time have continuously eroded the credibility of the US dollar, and the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined. In particular, China's rapid development since joining the WTO has gradually approached or even surpassed the United States in many scientific and technological fields, causing deep anxiety among the American elite. The breakthroughs made by Chinese companies such as Huawei in key technologies such as 5G chip design and communication base stations are a signal that alerts the United States: the once high-tech generation gap has been rapidly narrowed, and the traditional advantages of the United States in the manufacturing field are in jeopardy, while the younger generation of Americans are more engaged in finance and art and are no longer willing to engage in manufacturing. This series of changes means that the old order on which the United States relies for hegemony is loosening.

第二次世界大战后建立的美国的旧国际经济体系（例如布雷顿伍兹体系和WTO框架）正面临着崩溃的风险：新兴经济体的兴起削弱了美国的相对优势，美国在持续不断的交换中，美国在整体上积累了巨大的债务和财政赤字。储备金下降了。特别是，自加入世贸组织以来，中国的迅速发展已逐渐接近甚至超过许多科学和技术领域的美国，在美国精英中引起了深切的焦虑。中国公司（例如华为）在5G芯片设计和通信基站等关键技术中所取得的突破是一种向美国发出警报的信号：曾经高科技的一代差距已经迅速缩小，美国在制造业领域的传统优势在危险领域，而美国人则不再从事金融和艺术品，并且不再从事融资和艺术品。这一系列的变化意味着，美国依靠霸权的旧秩序正在放松。

Against this backdrop, U.S. decision-makers have begun to plan to build a new trade and financial order to maintain its global dominance. The Trump administration’s strategic goal is not only to negotiate better terms in trade negotiations, but also to try to “start anew” – to re-establish the central position of the United States by formulating a new rules system. This has two intentions: one is to strike major competitors and weaken the momentum of China and other countries to rise rapidly by taking advantage of the existing globalization dividends; the other is to seek new value anchors to provide new support for the shaken dollar credit and global trade. Under this idea, the traditional dollar credit needs to introduce stronger endorsements, and the United States has begun to turn its attention to assets such as gold and Bitcoin, hoping to rebuild the trust foundation of the global financial system.

在这种背景下，美国决策者已经开始计划建立新的贸易和财务秩序，以保持其全球统治地位。特朗普政府的战略目标不仅是在贸易谈判中谈判更好的条件，而且是试图“重新开始”，以通过制定新规则制度来重新建立美国的中心地位。这有两个意图：一种是罢工主要竞争对手，并削弱中国和其他国家的势头，以利用现有的全球化股息来迅速上升。另一个是寻求新的价值锚点，以为动摇的美元信贷和全球贸易提供新的支持。在这个想法下，传统的美元信贷需要引入更强有力的认可，美国已经开始将其关注转移到诸如黄金和比特币之类的资产上，希望重建全球金融体系的信任基础。

It is worth noting that since Trump took office, the US government's attitude toward the field of cryptocurrency has undergone a major change. Soon after taking office, Trump publicly expressed his concern about the development of virtual currencies, reversing his previous critical stance on Bitcoin. Some forces within the Republican Party and some state governments have also gradually embraced Bitcoin in recent years, viewing it as “digital gold” to hedge against the risk of the US dollar. It can be said that the United States is making pre-planning for a potential new financial order and incorporating Bitcoin into its national strategic vision.

值得注意的是，自从特朗普上任以来，美国政府对加密货币领域的态度发生了重大变化。上任后不久，特朗普公开表示关注虚拟货币的发展，扭转了他以前对比特币的批判立场。近年来，共和党和一些州政府内部的一些部队也逐渐接受了比特币，将其视为“数字黄金”，以对冲美元的风险。可以说，美国正在为潜在的新金融秩序进行预先计划，并将比特币纳入其国家战略愿景中。

1.1 Finance Begins to Enter an Era of Chaos

1.1财务开始进入混乱时代

Since Trump returned to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have continued to turmoil the global market. Among them, one of the measures that caused the greatest shock was the escalation of tariff policies: from April 5, 2025, the United States will impose a unified 10% “base tariff” on all imported goods, and impose higher “reciprocal tariffs” on 60 countries including China and Vietnam (the tariff on China was once raised to 125%). In the short term, Trump’s tariff stick caused

自从特朗普返回白宫以来，一系列意想不到的经济和政治措施继续在全球市场上动荡。其中，引起最大震惊的措施之一是关税政策的升级：从2025年4月5日起，美国将对所有进口商品施加统一的10％“基本关税”，并将更高的“相互关税”对包括中国和越南在内的60个国家征收（中国的关税曾经提高到125％）。在短期内，特朗普的关税棒造成了