亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）揭示了市场参与者何时应该期待这个周期的山寨币季节

更广泛的加密货币市场一直在预期Altcoin季节，这一时期替代加密货币的价格优于比特币。

Co-founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, has revealed when market participants should expect this cycle’s altcoin season.

加密衍生品平台BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes透露，市场参与者应期望这个周期的Altcoin季节。

The broader crypto market has been anticipating altcoin season, a period when the prices of alternative cryptocurrencies outpace Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin first hit $100,000 in December 2024, discussions about when this event could begin have taken center stage in the crypto community.

更广泛的加密货币市场一直在预期Altcoin季节，这是一个替代加密货币的价格超过比特币的时期。由于比特币在2024年12月首次达到100,000美元以来，有关该活动何时开始的讨论已成为加密社区的中心舞台。

Timeline for Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节的时间表

Even though altcoins have also experienced gains, this growth pales in comparison to previous alt seasons. With many investors asking when this cycle’s altcoin season would begin, Anna Tutova, a journalist with Fortune, recently posed this question to Hayes at the Token2049 event in Dubai.

即使AltCoins也经历了收益，但与以前的ALT季节相比，这种增长仍然显得趋于平稳。随着许多投资者询问该周期的Altcoin赛季何时开始，财富的记者安娜·图托瓦（Anna Tutova）最近在迪拜的Token2049活动中向海耶斯提出了这个问题。

In response, Hayes stated that for altcoin season to commence, Bitcoin’s price must break above $110,000. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin approached the $110,000 mark in January but ultimately failed, with its rally peaking at $109,114.

作为回应，海耶斯表示，要开始替代币季节，比特币的价格必须超过110,000美元。值得注意的是，比特币在一月份达到了110,000美元的成绩，但最终失败了，其拉力赛的峰值为109,114美元。

However, once Bitcoin surpasses $110,000, Hayes anticipates increased volume will drive the price toward loftier targets like $150,000-$200,000 by summer or Q3 2025.

但是，一旦比特币超过$ 110,000，海耶斯预计增加的数量将推动价格更高的目标，例如夏季到夏季或第三季度2025 $ 150,000- $ 200,000。

Afterward, he expects profit-taking in Bitcoin to follow suit, with some being channeled into altcoins, potentially kicking off altcoin season.

之后，他预计比特币的利润会效仿，其中一些人被引入山寨币，有可能启动Altcoin赛季。

2025 Altcoin Season Would Be Smaller Compared to 2021

与2021相比，2025 Altcoin季节会更小

Nevertheless, Hayes does not expect the 2025 altcoin season to match the scale of the one experienced in 2021. During that period, the prices of major altcoins surged rapidly, with some realizing over 100x gains.

尽管如此，海耶斯并不预计2025 Altcoin季节与2021年经历的规模相匹配。在此期间，主要Altcoins的价格迅速飙升，有些人意识到超过100倍的增长。

He speculates that a new narrative could emerge to captivate investor interest this time, possibly leading to significant spikes. Hayes also suggested that many of the older “dinosaur” tokens, especially those with high fully diluted valuations (FDVs), limited circulating supply, and minimal demand, are unlikely to recover in the upcoming altcoin season.

他推测，这次可能会出现一个新的叙述，以吸引投资者的兴趣，这可能导致了巨大的兴奋。海斯还建议，许多较旧的“恐龙”代币，尤其是那些具有高稀释估值（FDV），有限的循环供应和最少需求的代币，在即将到来的AltCoin季节中不太可能恢复。

Predictions for Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum

对比特币，索拉纳和以太坊的预测

Furthermore, Hayes shared his predictions for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming months and years. According to him, Bitcoin will reach an all-time high of $250,000 by the end of the year, likely after altcoin season.

此外，海斯分享了他对未来几个月和几年比特币价格轨迹的预测。据他说，到今年年底，比特币将达到25万美元的历史最高点，可能是在Altcoin赛季之后的。

Moreover, the crypto entrepreneur anticipates Bitcoin to continue its rally and eventually hit an ambitious mark of $1 million toward the end of Trump’s presidency in 2028. He made a similar prediction for Bitcoin in his most recent Substack post.

此外，这位加密企业家预计比特币将继续进行集会，并最终在2028年特朗普总统任期结束时达到了100万美元的雄心勃勃的成绩。他在最近的替代帖子中对比特币做出了类似的预测。

He attributes this projected surge to several factors, including a shift of capital from traditional assets into hard assets like Bitcoin.

他将这种预计的激增归因于几个因素，包括将资本从传统资产转移到像比特币这样的硬资产。

Ethereum to Outperform Solana

以太坊要优于solana

Finally, he also chimed in on the debate about which altcoin, Ethereum or Solana, would outperform the other. According to Hayes, Ethereum will outpace Solana over the next 18 to 24 months.

最后，他还讨论了关于哪种Altcoin，以太坊或Solana的辩论，将胜过对方。根据海斯的说法，以太坊将在接下来的18到24个月内超过Solana。

He made this assertion despite acknowledging that Solana has outperformed Ethereum since 2020, with its price increasing from $7 to $265. Notably, Solana has already surpassed its 2021 peak this year while Ethereum is still lagging behind. Despite this, Hayes believes that Ethereum is the better investment.

尽管承认索拉纳（Solana）自2020年以来的表现优于以太坊，但其价格从7美元增加到265美元，他还是做出了这一断言。值得注意的是，索拉纳（Solana）今年已经超过了2021年的峰值，而以太坊仍落后。尽管如此，海斯认为以太坊是更好的投资。

According to Hayes, despite being disliked by some, Ethereum still leads in terms of total value locked (TVL), developer activity, and security, making it the most robust proof-of-stake blockchain.

根据海斯的说法，尽管有些人不喜欢，但以太坊仍然以总价值锁定（TVL），开发人员活动和安全性领先，使其成为最强大的销售证明区块链。