亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），加密货币（Crypto）和财政部命中率：魔术数字是8500亿美元吗？

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）认为，美国财政部的平衡可能会引发加密集会。但是每个人都同意吗？让我们深入了解潜在的财政部及其加密影响。

Hold onto your hats, crypto enthusiasts! The intersection of Arthur Hayes's market insights, the crypto world, and the U.S. Treasury's moves is heating up. Is the Treasury about to give crypto the jolt it needs?

抓住您的帽子，加密爱好者！亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的市场见解，加密货币世界和美国财政部的举动的交汇处正在加热。财政部是否要给加密货币带来所需的震动？

Hayes's Bold Prediction: Treasury Balance as Crypto Catalyst

海斯的大胆预测：财政部平衡为加密催化剂

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is making waves with his prediction: once the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) hits $850 billion, crypto is set for a sustained upswing. Hayes sees the Treasury's balance as a key indicator for risk assets like crypto. He argues that the accumulation of liquidity in the TGA acts like a temporary pump, sucking capital out of the market. Once the Treasury reaches its target, that liquidity will flow back in, potentially sparking a bullish run.

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes随着他的预测而引起了轰动：一旦美国财政部的一般帐户（TGA）达到了8500亿美元，Crypto便可以持续增长。海耶斯将财政部的平衡视为加密货币等风险资产的关键指标。他认为，TGA中流动性的积累就像临时泵一样，将资本从市场上吸走。一旦财政部达到目标，流动性就会流回，有可能引发看涨的奔跑。

Why the Treasury's Balance Matters

为什么财政部的余额很重要

The TGA is the Treasury's main operating account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It's where the government parks the cash it gets from bond sales and tax revenue. When the TGA balance increases, it can pull liquidity out of the broader financial markets, including crypto.

TGA是纽约联邦储备银行的财政部的主要运营帐户。这是政府将其从债券销售和税收收入中获得的现金停车的地方。当TGA余额增加时，它可以将流动性从包括加密货币在内的更广泛的金融市场中撤出。

Dissenting Voices: Not Everyone's on Board

反对的声音：并不是每个人都在船上

Not everyone's convinced by Hayes's thesis. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin's price is weak and potentially misleading. He points out that crypto's dynamics are influenced by much more than just the Fed or the Treasury, including investor sentiment, institutional investments, and regulatory changes. It's like saying a single ingredient makes the whole pizza – there's a lot more to it than that.

并非每个人都相信海斯的论文。位资产管理研究负责人安德烈·德拉格斯（AndréDragosch）认为，流动性与比特币价格之间的相关性很弱，并且可能具有误导性。他指出，加密货币的动态不仅受到美联储或财政部的影响，包括投资者的情绪，机构投资和监管变化。这就像说一种成分可以使整个披萨成为整个披萨一样 - 除此之外，还有很多。

Layer Brett: The New Kid on the Block?

布雷特层：街区上的新孩子？

While Hayes's macro view has people talking, there's also buzz around new projects like Layer Brett, a Layer 2 memecoin that raised over $3.8 million in its presale. Projects like Layer Brett try to offer immediate utility and long-term potential, attracting those who want to find the best crypto to buy now.

尽管海斯的宏观视图吸引了人们在谈论，但围绕着新项目等新项目也引起了人们的欢迎，例如第2层Memecoin筹集了超过380万美元的预售。诸如Layer Brett之类的项目试图提供直接的公用事业和长期潜力，吸引那些想找到最好的加密货币的人。

So, What's the Takeaway?

那么，收获是什么？

Hayes's prediction offers an interesting scenario, but it's crucial to consider alternative perspectives. The crypto market is complex, and the Treasury's balance is just one piece of the puzzle. Keep an eye on other factors, like regulatory developments and overall market sentiment. And don't forget to do your research before diving into any new projects – even the ones with catchy names.

海斯的预测提供了一个有趣的方案，但考虑替代观点至关重要。加密市场很复杂，财政部的平衡只是难题的一部分。密切关注其他因素，例如监管发展和整体市场情绪。而且，不要忘记在进行任何新项目之前进行研究，甚至是具有吸引人名字的项目。

The Bottom Line

底线

Will the Treasury's balance at $850 billion be the magic number for crypto? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the intersection of traditional finance and the crypto world is becoming increasingly fascinating. So, keep your eyes peeled, stay informed, and maybe, just maybe, we'll all ride the next crypto wave together. Just remember to buckle up – it's gonna be a wild ride!

财政部的余额是否为8500亿美元是加密货币的魔术数字？只有时间会证明。但是可以肯定的是：传统金融和加密世界的交集变得越来越有趣。因此，请保持眼睛剥落，保持知情，也许，也许我们都会一起骑着下一个加密波浪。只要记住要扣紧 - 这将是一次疯狂的旅程！