分析师：现货比特币 ETF 可能将长期目标推至 65 万美元

著名链上分析师 Willy Woo 预测，基于资产管理公司将全部资金配置为现货比特币的假设，比特币的价格在熊市低点时可能会低至 91,000 美元，在牛市高峰时会高达 650,000 美元ETF 于 2024 年 1 月推出。Woo 的预测考虑了管理资产总额、历史比特币投资模式、使用 MVRV 比率计算的市值、自我托管、资金流入以及与黄金增长轨迹的比较等因素。

Bitcoin's Future Valuation: Analyst Projects Long-Term Targets Based on ETF Influx

比特币的未来估值：分析师根据 ETF 流入预测长期目标

Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has presented a comprehensive analysis predicting the potential future valuations of Bitcoin, driven by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024.

著名链上分析师 Willy Woo 提出了一项综合分析，预测了 2024 年 1 月美国推出现货比特币 ETF 所推动的比特币未来潜在估值。

Woo's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price could fluctuate between a low of $91,000 during bear market conditions and a peak of $650,000 at the height of bull markets. These projections are based on the assumption that ETF investors will fully deploy their capital in accordance with asset manager recommendations.

Woo 的分析表明，比特币的价格可能在熊市期间的 91,000 美元低点和牛市高峰时的 650,000 美元峰值之间波动。这些预测基于这样的假设：ETF 投资者将按照资产管理人的建议充分配置其资本。

It is important to emphasize that these price targets are not for the current market cycle but rather long-term predictions. Woo highlights that capital deployment in such funds typically occurs gradually over an extended period.

需要强调的是，这些价格目标并非针对当前的市场周期，而是长期预测。 Woo 强调，此类基金的资本配置通常会在较长时期内逐步进行。

Assumptions and Calculations Underlying the Predictions

预测背后的假设和计算

Woo's predictions are grounded in several key assumptions and calculations:

吴的预测基于几个关键假设和计算：

1. Total Managed Assets:

1. 管理资产总额：

Woo posits that globally, asset managers control approximately $100 trillion worth of assets. Traditionally, firms such as Fidelity advise allocating around 2% of investment portfolios to Bitcoin. Based on this guidance, Woo estimates a potential investment of $2 trillion in Bitcoin.

Woo 认为，全球资产管理公司控制着价值约 100 万亿美元的资产。传统上，富达等公司建议将大约 2% 的投资组合分配给比特币。根据这一指导，Woo 估计比特币的潜在投资额为 2 万亿美元。

2. Current and Future Bitcoin Investment:

2.当前和未来的比特币投资：

Woo estimates that Bitcoin currently holds approximately $561 million in investments that can be verified on-chain. With the projected $2 trillion allocation, total Bitcoin investments could reach $2.56 trillion.

Woo 估计，比特币目前持有约 5.61 亿美元的可在链上验证的投资。按照预计 2 万亿美元的分配，比特币投资总额可能达到 2.56 万亿美元。

3. Market Cap Calculations Using MVRV:

3. 使用 MVRV 计算市值：

MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, is a ratio that measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. By comparing the current market cap to the realized capitalization (the aggregate value of Bitcoin at purchase prices), Woo employs typical MVRV ratios observed in previous market conditions. He projects future market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion at the peak of bull markets and the trough of bear markets, respectively.

MVRV，即市场价值与已实现价值，是衡量比特币是否被高估或低估的比率。通过将当前市值与已实现资本化（按购买价格计算的比特币总价值）进行比较，Woo 采用了在之前市场条件下观察到的典型 MVRV 比率。他预计未来牛市顶峰和熊市低谷时的市值分别为 12.8 万亿美元和 1.8 万亿美元。

4. Self-Custody and Additional Inflows:

4. 自我托管和额外流入：

Woo acknowledges the existence of additional investment inflows from self-custodied Bitcoin, where individuals maintain direct control over their assets. He suggests that his estimates may be conservative due to this factor.

吴承认，自我托管的比特币存在额外的投资流入，个人对其资产保持直接控制。他表示，由于这个因素，他的估计可能是保守的。

5. Comparison with Gold's Performance:

5、与黄金的表现对比：

Finally, Woo draws parallels between Bitcoin and gold's historical performance. Following the approval of gold ETFs, the precious metal experienced a 12-year bull run. Woo suggests that Bitcoin may follow a similar or even more pronounced growth trajectory due to its digital nature and finite supply, potentially surpassing gold's market capitalization.

最后，吴将比特币和黄金的历史表现进行了比较。随着黄金ETF获批，贵金属经历了长达12年的牛市。吴表示，由于其数字性质和有限的供应，比特币可能会遵循类似甚至更明显的增长轨迹，有可能超过黄金的市值。

Conclusion

结论

Willy Woo's analysis provides valuable insights into the potential future valuations of Bitcoin, particularly in the context of the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. While these projections are long-term in nature and subject to market conditions, they underscore the significant potential of Bitcoin as a long-term investment.

Willy Woo 的分析为比特币未来的潜在估值提供了宝贵的见解，特别是在美国推出现货比特币 ETF 的背景下。虽然这些预测本质上是长期的，并且受到市场条件的影响，但它们强调了比特币作为长期投资的巨大潜力。