Altseason即将到来吗？随着山寨币的上升，比特币优势下降

加密货币市场表明，一个季节，即替代时期的AltCoins明显优于比特币（BTC）的时期，可能会出现。

Key Takeaways

关键要点

* Declining Bitcoin dominance and rising strength in altcoins and memecoins could be a sign that it’s altseason.

*在替代币和成员中，比特币的优势下降和实力上升可能表明这是季后赛。

* The TOTAL2 chart, which measures the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, has broken above a key downtrend line.

*总计2图表衡量了所有加密货币（不包括比特币）的总市值，在关键的下降线上已经折断了。

* As stablecoin dominance drops, capital is rotating into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

*随着Stablecoin优势的下降，资本正在旋转成比特币和其他加密货币。

The cryptocurrency market shows signs that an altseason, a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), could be on the horizon.

加密货币市场表明，一个季节，即替代时期的AltCoins明显优于比特币（BTC）的时期，可能会出现。

Technical charts and market sentiment align to suggest that May 2025 might start a broader altcoin rally, driven by key indicators and shifting capital flows.

技术图表和市场情绪一致，以表明2025年5月可能会在关键指标和转移资本流动的驱动下开始更广泛的Altcoin集会。

Breaking structure on TOTAL2

总计的破裂结构2

The TOTAL2 chart, which represents the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, has broken above a downtrend line in place since January 2025.

自2025年1月以来，代表所有加密货币（不包括比特币）的总市值（不包括比特币）的总市值已损坏。

This breakout is accompanied by a bullish break of structure (BOS) on the daily chart, forming higher-low patterns, setting the stage for a decisive move above the $1.25 trillion resistance level.

该突破伴随着每日图表上的Bullish结构（BOS）突破，形成了更高的模式，为高于1.25万亿美元的电阻水平的决定性移动奠定了基础。

The breakout could support a decisive uptrend comprised of higher lows and higher highs, shifting capital from Bitcoin into altcoins.

突破可以支持由较高低点和更高高点组成的决定性上升趋势，将资本从比特币转移到山寨币。

Similarly, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart is signaling a potential market peak, having declined 4% over the past six days—the steepest drop since November 2024.

同样，比特币优势（BTC.D）图表标志着潜在的市场峰值，过去六天下降了4％，这是自2024年11月以来的最大下降。

A falling BTC.D typically indicates capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins, enabling altcoins to gain market share and drive collective price surges.

下降的BTC.D通常表明资本从比特币流向Altcoins，使Altcoins能够获得市场份额并推动集体价格飙升。

Michael Van Poppe, founder of MN Capital, highlighted this trend, noting a bearish divergence accompanied by declining volume on the four-hour chart. The analyst said,

MN Capital的创始人迈克尔·范·波普（Michael Van Poppe）强调了这一趋势，指出看跌的差异伴随着四小时图表上的数量下降。分析师说，

"Still ranging, but seems like we're getting close to making a move. Wouldn't mind seeing some more volume come in on this timeframe, but otherwise, we're slowly moving towards lower highs and lower lows."

“仍然在范围内，但似乎我们正在快要采取行动。不介意在这个时间范围内看到更多的音量，但是否则，我们正在慢慢地朝着较低的高点和较低的低点迈进。”

As stablecoin dominance drops, capital rotates into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

随着Stablecoin优势的下降，资本旋转成比特币和其他加密货币。

The tether (USDT) dominance chart has dropped to its lowest level since early February, at 4.59% on May 13.

自2月初以来，系绳（USDT）优势图已下降到最低水平，5月13日为4.59％。

As illustrated below, the USDT.D chart may find support around 3.90%, as it exhibits a descending triangle pattern. A bearish breakout could lead to new lows since 2021, matching previous altseason levels.

如下所示，USDT.D图表可能会发现3.90％的支持，因为它表现出降落的三角形模式。自2021年以来，看跌的突破可能会导致新的低点，与先前的季后赛相匹配。

The declines in USDT dominance suggest that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and into other assets, such as Bitcoin and altcoins. Over the past seven days, Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have gained 44.3%, 20.6% and 22% respectively, compared to BTC’s 10% rise.

USDT主导地位的下降表明，资本正在从Stablecoins旋转，并进入其他资产，例如比特币和Altcoins。在过去的七天中，与BTC的10％上升相比，Ether（ETH），XRP（XRP）和Solana（Sol）（SOL）分别上涨了44.3％，20.6％和22％。

Complementing the recovery with a deeper analysis, crypto trader ZERO IKA observed that many altcoins have formed a higher time frame break of structure above their February and March highs.

加密交易者零IKA通过更深入的分析来补充恢复，观察到许多山寨币在2月和3月的高点上方已经形成了更高的结构时间间隔。

The analyst noted that despite recent upside, most altcoins remain 70% to 90% below their all-time highs, indicating a “relatively early” opportunity for a recovery.

这位分析师指出，尽管最近有上涨空间，但大多数山寨币仍低70％至90％，低于其历史最高点，这表明恢复的机会“相对较早”。

The weakening stablecoin and Bitcoin dominance, coupled with a rise in altcoin market cap, opens the door for an altseason, as long as the above key trends remain intact.

只要上述关键趋势保持不变，稳定的Stablecoin和比特币优势，再加上Altcoin市值的上升，为Altseaste季节打开了大门。