2025年，Altcoin季节可能以新的且难以预测的方式形成。

尽管市场最近看到了一个简短的Altcoin集会，但分析师认为，在发生更广泛，更持续的转变之前，这些迷你循环将继续出现。

Altcoin season may be taking shape in a new and less predictable way in 2025. While the market recently saw a brief burst of activity in the altcoin sector, analysts believe these mini-cycles will continue to appear before a broader, more sustained shift occurs.

AltCoin季节可能在2025年以一种新的且难以预测的方式形成。尽管市场最近在Altcoin行业进行了短暂的活动，但分析师认为，在发生更广泛，更持续的转变之前，这些迷你伴侣将继续出现。

Bitcoin dominance has dropped sharply, and altcoins have started to outperform BTC in the short term, but broader indicators suggest this rotation is still selective. Unlike past cycles, the next altcoin season could be more fragmented, favoring projects with strong fundamentals and execution.

比特币优势急剧下降，而山寨币在短期内开始胜过BTC，但是更广泛的指标表明这种旋转仍然是选择性的。与过去的周期不同，下一个Altcoin季节可能会更加分散，从而有利于具有强大基础和执行的项目。

Bitcoin Dominance Drops to March Lows as Altcoins Gain Ground

随着山寨币获得地面，比特币优势下降至三月低点

Bitcoin dominance has fallen sharply over the past six days, dropping from 65.39% to 62.5%—a decline of nearly 5 basis points and its lowest level since March 31.

在过去的六天中，比特币的优势急剧下降，从65.39％下降到62.5％，降低了近5个基点和自3月31日以来的最低水平。

This shift suggests that capital is beginning to flow away from Bitcoin and into altcoins, weakening BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap.

这一转变表明，资本开始从比特币转移到Altcoins，削弱了BTC在总加密市值中的份额。

Bitcoin dominance tracks the percentage of the overall crypto market made up by Bitcoin. A falling dominance level often signals the start of an altcoin season, where smaller-cap tokens outperform Bitcoin.

比特币优势跟踪比特币组成的整体加密市场的百分比。下降的优势水平通常标志着Altcoin季节的开始，在该季节中，较小的代币优于比特币。

A notable example occurred in late 2024, when dominance dropped from 61.1% to 55% between November 21 and December 7, sparking a broad altcoin rally. If this trend continues, altcoins could see renewed momentum in the days ahead.

一个值得注意的例子发生在2024年底，当时统治地位从11月21日至12月7日之间的61.1％下降到55％，引发了广泛的Altcoin Rally。如果这种趋势持续下去，AltCoins可能会在未来的日子里看到新的动力。

According to Marcin Kazmierczak, Co-founder & COO of RedStone:

根据Redstone的联合创始人兼首席运营官Marcin Kazmierczak的说法：

“The recent mini altseason reflects growing investor interest in altcoins, driven by or possibly resulting from falling BTC dominance. It’s possible we’ll see sustained rallies, especially as the market matures and more projects gain traction.

“最近的小季季季节反映了投资者对AltCoins的不断增长，这是由于BTC优势下降或可能导致的。我们可能会看到持续的集会，尤其是随着市场的成熟和更多的项目获得吸引力。

However, I expect that, unlike past cycles, the market will continue the trend of not all altcoins benefiting equally — projects with strong products and excellent go-to-market strategies will likely outperform, while others may struggle to maintain momentum.” – Kazmierczak told BeInCrypto.

但是，我预计，与过去的周期不同，市场将继续趋势的趋势并非所有山寨币都受益 - 拥有强大产品和出色的上市策略的项目可能会跑赢大盘，而其他人则可能难以维持动力。” - Kazmierczak告诉Beincrypto。

Top Altcoins Outpace Bitcoin This Week, But YTD Gap Remains Wide

本周顶级Altcoins超过比特币，但YTD差距仍然很宽

Year-to-date, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dominate most of the altcoin market, outperforming 11 of the top 12 altcoins. The only exception is XRP, which has posted a 23% gain this year, slightly edging out Bitcoin.

年初至今，比特币（BTC）继续占据主导地位，大多数Altcoin市场表现优于前12名山寨币中的11个。 XRP唯一的例外是，今年的收益率为23％，略微淘汰了比特币。

This performance gap is one reason the broader market has remained in a Bitcoin-led phase, with capital largely consolidating around BTC rather than spreading evenly across the altcoin space.

这种绩效差距是更广泛的市场一直处于比特币为主导的阶段的原因之一，其资本在很大程度上围绕BTC巩固，而不是在Altcoin空间中均匀散布。

However, the trend has shifted sharply in the past seven days. Despite BTC rising 7% during this period, it was outperformed by all of the top 12 altcoins—most notably by Ethereum (ETH), which jumped 43%, and Dogecoin (DOGE), which surged 36%.

但是，在过去的七天中，这种趋势急剧变化。尽管BTC在此期间上涨了7％，但它的表现均优于所有前12个山寨币，最著名的是以太坊（ETH），涨幅为43％，而Dogecoin（Doge）（Doge）飙升了36％。

This short-term reversal may indicate the early stages of a potential altcoin season. According to Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, Solana looks bullish:

这种短期逆转可能表明潜在的山寨币季节的早期阶段。 Nansen的首席研究分析师Aurelie Barthere表示，Solana看起来看涨：

“We like SOL for strong fundamentals plus stabilizing 50-day moving average vs BTC.” – Barthere told BeInCrypto.

“我们喜欢SOL强大的基本面加上稳定50天的移动平均值与BTC。” - 巴特雷告诉Beincrypto。

If altcoins continue to sustain this momentum and outperform BTC more consistently, it could signal a broader market rotation away from Bitcoin dominance and into the altcoin sector.

如果AltCoins继续维持这一势头并更加一致地胜过BTC，则可能表明，从比特币优势到Altcoin行业的市场旋转更广泛。

Altcoin Market Cap Rises, But Index Signals BTC Still Leads

Altcoin市值升高，但指数信号BTC仍然领先

The total market cap of altcoins has surged over the past week, rising from $1.07 trillion to $1.30 trillion—a significant increase signaling strong inflows into the altcoin sector.

在过去的一周中，AltCoins的总市值飙升，从10.7万亿美元增加到1.30万亿美元，这一大幅增加了山寨币行业的大幅增长。

Despite this growth, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index has declined from 35 to 31 in the same period, showing that most altcoins are still underperforming relative to Bitcoin.

尽管有这种增长，但在同一时期，CoinMarketCap Altcoin季节指数从35下降到31个，表明大多数山寨币相对于比特币仍表现不佳。

This disconnect suggests that while money is flowing into altcoins, it’s not yet broad or strong enough across the top 100 assets to trigger a true altcoin season.

这种断开连接表明，虽然资金流入山寨币，但在前100名资产中尚未足够广泛或强大，无法触发真正的Altcoin季节。

The CMC Altcoin Season Index measures whether the market is favoring altcoins over Bitcoin by analyzing the performance of the top 100 altcoins.

CMC AltCoin季节指数通过分析前100个AltCoins的性能来衡量市场是否支持Altcoin而不是比特币。

If at least 75% of them outperform Bitcoin, it’s considered Altcoin Season; if 25% or fewer do, it’s Bitcoin Season. The index ranges from 1 to 100 and updates daily.

如果其中至少有75％的比特币胜过比特币，则被认为是Altcoin季节；如果25％或更少，那是比特币季节。索引范围从1到100，每天更新。

With the current value sitting at 31, the market remains in a Bitcoin-dominated phase, despite the rising altcoin market cap—highlighting that only a limited number of altcoins are driving the gains.

尽管目前的价值占31，尽管Altcoin市值上升，但市场仍处于比特币主导的阶段，其中只有有限数量的Altcoins驱动了收益。