2025 Altcoin Market Cycle展望：AI、DeFi、L1、NFT 游戏代币

自 2024 年牛市周期开始以来，到目前为止的周期是：1 月 10 日推出 BTC ETF → 直到比特币达到新的历史高点，从而提振山寨币季并进入波动的 2024 年第二/第三季度，比特币继续突破 50,000 美元和 60,000 美元，目前徘徊在 90,000 美元左右。

The bull market cycle started in 2024. Here's a quick recap:

- BTC ETF launched on January 10

- Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, boosting the alt season and entering the volatile second/third quarter of 2024

- BTC continued to break through $50,000 and $60,000, and is currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that the alt season started when BTC reached its highs. The first round was BTC moving towards $69,000 but failed to break out properly. The next round was moving towards $100,000. The next alt season is likely to be Bitcoin stabilizing at $100,000, hopefully in Q1 2025. But the Q2/Q3 2024 story could repeat itself in the coming months. Here are all the possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: BTC + altcoins generally rise. Rising all the way through 2025, then entering another alt season, as BTC continues to rise, all tokens perform well, repeating the past 2 months, everything is rising (30-40% probability).

Strategy: Choose outperforming altcoins and buy on dips.

Scenario 2: BTC rises, and altcoins rise less; the story of 2024 repeats itself, with fluctuations up and down in the next few months, but more bullish than 2024 (because BTC rises); so choose tokens that perform well (50-60% probability).

Strategy: Buy on dips in selected altcoins. Avoid the hottest tracks and find the next “get-rich-quick coin”

Scenario 3: BTC rises and altcoins generally fall (20-30% probability).

Strategy: Sell all altcoins. Reduce altcoin investments; if the altcoins you hold do not rise over a long period of time, you may have to sell them all.

Scenario 4: BTC falls, altcoins fall across the board. Everything has peaked (10-20% probability).

Because of the macro positives, a new BTC ATH breakthrough may not take as long as 2024. In this hellish summer, ETFs have just been launched, and TradFi is still struggling to sell the BTC story to customers. Most importantly, the outside world generally does not believe in the importance of Bitcoin.

Now that Trump has won the election, discussions about strategic Bitcoin reserves are underway. Although the possibility of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is small, the reputation of Bitcoin has changed.

It’s the narrative that matters — the fact that we’re in a new regime has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and now that the next US president is talking about Bitcoin so frequently, makes it a lot easier to convince people to buy Bitcoin.

This regime change is extremely important. Therefore, BTC will continue to have a tailwind in 2025. For altcoins, the situation is similar, but different.

Total3 (total market cap of all altcoins) hits a 2021 all-time high in Q1 2024, then reaches a cycle high in Q4 2024. It more or less follows the same pattern (Scenarios 1 and 2 above are not too different).

The key is positioning and timing. Although I am optimistic about 2025, I don’t know how long it will take. Although the rise in 2025 may be earlier than 2024, altcoins will still fall sharply in the absence of catalysts.

As long as the cycle is not over, stay long, whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins. There will be no summer 2024 in 2025, and although there may be periods like now (just a plateau), prices will still hold up pretty well.

The situation is different on-chain, which can easily see a 70% drop when the tide recedes. It is expected that altcoins have not peaked at this time because it is not seen how BTC can continue to rise when altcoins "die", nor can it be seen that BTC has peaked here.

in conclusion:

risk

Cycle Top

We are nowhere near a cycle top at this time but must continue to reassess each week. A cycle top is not necessarily an "event" but more of a range that is slowly approached over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Program Risks

As the new presidential term begins, all eyes will be on what Trump says and does. While the upside for Bitcoin is there, it would be quite bearish if Trump completely ignores the reserve plan. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan does not happen/is delayed by something.

In the latter case